The big unknown: Will gen 3 be delivered on time?

[Robert.Boston]

People always complain about Tesla and deadlines, but I was surprised when I was listening to a mid 2010 Quarter Earnings call yesterday and Elon said the Model S would be ready by summer 2012. That was 2 years into the future and they absolutely made it on time

We just have to remember "Tesla time" and the "Elon time distortion field." There's a Bach cantata (#106) entitled "Gottes Zeit is die allerbeste Zeit", roughly translated as "God's time is the best time." Elons Zeit is die allerbeste Zeit.

 

[tander]

Model 3 will be on time, and you will be able to buy a base model for $34,999. Average ASP will be about $55k if I had to guess. here is why:

1) Battery output should be online in 2016. They are accountable to panasonic to have their investment producing and using the batteries. They can soak up some extra production, probably, but they risk idling their expensive signature plant.
2) GM has threatened to produce the Bolt in that timeframe. Of course it won't be in volume, and they dont have a charging network, but I really think they will want to be seen as the innovator. If GM sells 10 Bolts before the model 3 is released, the press will refer to the Model 3 as the car that came after the Bolt and that is a bitter pill. In fact, I have to think that is main motivator for GM: to steal some spotlight.
3) The Model X release isn't a good comparison. Model X is late because it can be late. Model S was only a little late and it came out because they simplified where they needed to, and shipped with incomplete software (ahem, sorry, i mean they keep improving it). With Model X, they have the opportunity to get it just right, and they have a signature feature (the door) which is probably a giant PITA. With X, the priority is getting it right, not getting it on time. With Model 3 they are signalling it will be less ambitious, with no equivalent to the falcon door, which I applaud.
4) The internal deadline is probably much, much earlier. Much of the staff could already be on model 3. They are working out the details with manufacturing the X at this point. The designers are on the model 3 right now.

In short, model 3 is less ambitious, more critical, and they have adequate time to go do it.

Edit: I should add they have a much larger team too, though I worry they will run into Brook's law (larger team could slow them down instead)

I second these sentiments. They (Musk) started talking about a timeline for X like 4-5? years ago and it was very much a buying time for battery iteration/proving engineering preeminence/not going bankrupt thing. But with the iii he has been much more careful about the timeline and I suspect built some leeway into it. Moreover (this is just a guess), I think one of their unspoken goals with the iii is to make it the first fully self-driving car (or maybe the cheapest one), which may be the biggest possible reason to delay it, but even if the self-driving isn't ready I think they'll probably just make sure the hardware is there and update it later like with the s right now.

 

[Bangor Bob]

If it comes down to a choice between the car "doing/having some amazing thing" and being released on time, I sincerely hope they choose to release it on time and roll out the "amazing thing" as an update or upgrade at some point down the road when it's ready. Similar to what happened with autopilot (well, still not quite here, is it...) or the D models.

 

[igotzzoom]

My guess - Model 3 will not be on time. Starting 2018, only Signature versions at priced at >=$75k will get delivered for at least one year because of unprecedented demand and the 35k car will get delivered no earlier than 2019.

If it's going to be $75k for the first year, and the "affordable" model won't be out 'til '19, count me out. I don't think I'm willing to wait that long. If it's not available at a reasonable price from launch. I consider that a failure. Maybe I should get a '16 Volt in the meantime.

 

[Xenoilphobe]

Who cares about the 3, by the time it is launched you can buy a slightly used S for $35K... why would you buy a econobox, if you could get the real thing???

 

[eloder]

Who cares about the 3, by the time it is launched you can buy a slightly used S for $35K... why would you buy a econobox, if you could get the real thing???

I'd take a Model 3 over a Model S heartily, for something I'd actually own and use for all my activities. I hate big cars.

 

[blakegallagher]

Who cares about the 3, by the time it is launched you can buy a slightly used S for $35K... why would you buy a econobox, if you could get the real thing???

Model 3 wont be an econobox by any means ! I think when it comes out many people would take it over a very used 2014ish Model S.

 

[pmadflyer]

Who cares about the 3, by the time it is launched you can buy a slightly used S for $35K... why would you buy a econobox, if you could get the real thing???

I never realized the BMW 3 series was an econobox.

 

[Larken]

I never realized the BMW 3 series was an econobox.

I guess everything is relative :wink:

 

[Xenoilphobe]

Hopefully it is more like a Toyota RAV4 or a station wagon - that is actually useful, verses some micro S.

 

[Blu Zap]

"Soon" does not have a date.

 

[Model 3]

"Soon" does not have a date.

Correct, that's why we need it to be delivered sooner

 

[joefee]

Given Tesla history, Model 3 will be "late" but we can only hope!

 

[tftf]

It might be a little late, but not drastically late. Elon knows he has a problem with setting timing expectations, and micro-managing. I think he understands what is at stake here and will reign in his perfectionism and rely on people like Chris Porritt to deliver the car at spec and mostly on time.

Is he still at Tesla?

The company seems to have a tendency to announce prominent hirings, but almost never firings or people leaving (the only exception to the rule was the CFO leaving).

It looks like both

- VP Manufacturing - Gilbert Passin (replaced with Reichow?)

- VP Engineering - Chris Porritt (replaced by Field?)

may no longer be with the company, or at least have a different job title now.

Maybe someone can confirm this.

A high churn rate is never a good sign of projects staying within their original timeline. I don't think the Gen III car is out before 2018 or 2019 (as I guessed last year).


PS: The VP of sales/service, Guillen, of course also took a leave of absence until early 2016 (and the wording sounds like he maybe doesn't return at all, he also sold many shares), but he has likely little impact on the Model 3 timeline.

 

[ludicrousspeed]

I, along with most others here, would be pretty surprised to see the first Model 3s being delivered in 2017. With that being said, I don't expect a delay like that of the Model X. This car has been the company's main goal since tesla began and a majority of R&D spending for a while has been centered around M3, even in 2015 with the MX release. Years of delay would signicantly hurt the company's goals. Somebody within the company sounded 100% confident the other day that it will be revealed in March of 2016 and I believe them. My best prediction for the official M3 launch will be Q2 of 2018.

 

[wk057]

My prediction: Model 3 by the end of 2019. Lowest base price $39k. Honestly, I think this is actually optimistic.

 

[tftf]

Years of delay would signicantly hurt the company's goals. Somebody within the company sounded 100% confident the other day that it will be revealed in March of 2016 and I believe them. My best prediction for the official M3 launch will be Q2 of 2018.

Revealing the car in March 2016 is not that hard. Remember they unveiled the Model X back in early February 2012, already including the gullwing doors:

Tesla Unveils Model X | Tesla Motors

Here we are 3.5 years later and the Model X still hasn't shipped (the latest rumors say it won't ship until early 2016 in meaningful volumes).

I therefore don't think a March 2016 unveil is any indication of the Model 3 actually shipping by the latest "late 2017" deadline.

 

[wk057]

Revealing the car in March 2016 is not that hard. Remember they unveiled the Model X back in early February 2012, already including the gullwing doors:

Tesla Unveils Model X | Tesla Motors

Here we are 3.5 years later and the Model X still hasn't shipped (the latest rumors say it won't ship until early 2016 in meaningful volumes).

I therefore don't think a March 2016 unveil is any indication of the Model 3 actually shipping by the latest "late 2017" deadline.

Yeah, the whole Model X nonsense should basically prove that Tesla is not going to deliver the Model 3 any time soon. They haven't even unveiled the prototype, and once they do we're still looking at 2+ years before deliveries at best even if they halved the Model X unveil->delivery benchmark timeline for the Model 3.

 

[davidc18]

I think an equally large problem they have is small supercharger network. To break into the mainstream, there have to be enough superchargers that the average buyer can hop into the car and drive away without concern about getting to either the destination or back to the starting point. You really can not do that today, at least not here in South Florida with the 70D. Daily driving yes, but longish weekend trips? not so much. As of now we have to take the Honda Odyssey.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla will deliver ~1k Model 3 in Dec 2017 with a base price of $35k. RWD Navigation and everything standard on a base Model S 70 standard today will be standard on a 2017 Model 3 with possible exception of Supercharger Access. Maybe up to $2k for that.

No new features like electric pop out handles,falcon wing doors or any other new feature that is difficult to engineer and get right. Something like that will come on the Model 3 crossover in ~2020.

Tesla does not need a Supercharger Network for 500k Model 3s in 2018. It needs a network large enough for 50k Model 3s plus the cumulative Model S and Model X roaming around. It does not need to placate joe sixpack. It needs a network convenient enough for the early adopters that can afford a $35k-$37k car but not a $70k car.