The demise of the OEMs

[Doggydogworld]

Europe is already at and China surpassed that percentage.

Nope. Europe was 16% BEV last year, China 25%.

And yes, Toyota promotes HEVs and PHEVs, but his 30% quote was specifically about BEVs (from Electrek):

“I know that EPA is now reconsidering what the regulation level should be. However, again, our starting point is what the customer demand should be. So, for example, 2030 regulations said the new-car market, more than half of it should be BEV, but our current plan is like 30%,” Ogawa said.

 

[cwerdna]

7.6% x 4 =29.8% (ok _not_ 30%) 1.2 million x 4 = 4.8 million

my vote was 2027, perhaps a bit optimistic, but 2027 goes thru December 31, 2027
...
cars 1913

the graphs of the increasing rapidity of uptake of new technology from elsewhere. I suspect we all will be surprised
(?Tesla has been selling cars (and lots of other stuff) for what ? 12 or so years? growing how fast?)
...

View attachment 1024137

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-speed-technological-adoption/

As I've said before in other replies, there's nothing about EVs or any other product or technology that says adoption rates will be as whatever those graphs show. There are MANY barriers (some unique to EVs and/or the automobile market) that don't exist for those other products/categories.

I still stand by my vote of after 2040 for the US over at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll".

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1764681843604144574

 

[kpanda17]

China is able to sell IRA eligible EVs built in Mexico for $15-20K before tax credits, we won’t have to wait until 2040, it will be 2030
Crazy times ahead

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765743808380084282

 

[kpanda17]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1765743808380084282

in usa, we have 2x M3s and the cheapest in the class was not the goal
the selection was to NOT get the short comings the Atto has
Tesla is still the best, at the lowest cost, USA is watching globally at the BYD Seagull for $9K, we dont want any part of that type of vehicle
the M2 will go to mid 20s, but we dont want to go lower, too much to miss out

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1766069988132073789

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768015209447166217

 

[kpanda17]

No Nissan to the rescue? they probably want control and Henrick does not want to give it up..back to just a designer

 

[cwerdna]

It's possible Nissan/someone else could pick up the remains of Fisker for cheap, if they go bankrupt.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768037796441149481

 

[RobStark]

Jaguar isn't going bankrupt. At least not anytime soon.

It is part of JLR. Which is part of Tata Motors. Many Range Rovers are sold out for the year and no new orders are being taken. Because JLR doesn't want to lock in current prices.

Jaguar is ending I-Pace and all ICEv production this July. And will release a new range of BEVs starting at just under 100k Pounds.

 

[Doggydogworld]

No Nissan to the rescue? they probably want control and Henrick does not want to give it up..back to just a designer

Nissan will PR-partner with Honda instead.

There's really not much for anyone to buy out of BK. Magna is probably a priority creditor and may get dibs on the designs

 

[SO16]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768377996866384333

 

[kpanda17]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1768377996866384333

have AI write code and fix the bugs

 

[cwerdna]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/honda-nissan-sign-mou-comprehensive-ev-cooperation-nhk-reports-2024-03-15/

Nissan, Honda begin EV tie-up talks amid competition from Tesla, BYD

Nissan Motor Co. and Honda Motor Co. says they have agreed to start a feasibility study for a strategic partnership in electric vehicle production and software technologies in a bid to cut costs and improve competitiveness in the face of powerful overseas rivals such as Tesla Inc. and China's...

english.kyodonews.net

OT: Was pointed out on Bloomberg the other night that Toyota's stock in the past year was up 90% while Tesla's was down 8% in the same period. That's about right. Try adding in TSLA as a stock to compare to for a 1 year period at https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/7203.T-JP?qsearchterm=.

The reports about Abbott leaving GM seem true:

GM long-time manufacturing lead to retire, new head of software leaves for health reasons

GM manufacturing lead Gerald Johnson set to retire after 44 years, and Mike Abbott, head of GM's software team, is leaving for health issues.

www.detroitnews.com

https://www.axios.com/2024/03/12/gm-electric-vehicles-apple-amazon-software

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/general-motors-executive-vice-president-software-services-mike-abbott-step-down-2024-03-12/

 

[kpanda17]

Ahead of the Chinese vehicles approaching and entering USA, great to hear about ID everything from VW. ID7 down to ID1 pending (I know some not for USA), amazed to see VWs renewed focus on EVs. Its also amazing to see how legacy OEMs in UK and EU are pushing hard into EVs with not only new models but evolved EV models. VW has made great strides on their next gen EVs. This is great to see.
Wild how Elon back in the day to now started an entire industry that hopefully continues and helps change and evolve the legacy OEMs.
Keep up the great work VW and especially Tesla.

 

[SO16]

Ahead of the Chinese vehicles approaching and entering USA, great to hear about ID everything from VW. ID7 down to ID1 pending (I know some not for USA), amazed to see VWs renewed focus on EVs. Its also amazing to see how legacy OEMs in UK and EU are pushing hard into EVs with not only new models but evolved EV models. VW has made great strides on their next gen EVs. This is great to see.
Wild how Elon back in the day to now started an entire industry that hopefully continues and helps change and evolve the legacy OEMs.
Keep up the great work VW and especially Tesla.

I think European car companies are going strong on EVs because their governments are pushing full ahead with no major slowdowns. In the US, I think a lot hinges on this election on wether legacy auto will push as much.

The mindset and oil companies in the US is quite strong against EVs. I have seen an ad play on television almost every night while watching the local news about how Biden wants to ban cars (paid for by the fuel industry). Of course, it’s more fear mongering.

 

[Doggydogworld]

I think European car companies are going strong on EVs because their governments are pushing full ahead with no major slowdowns.

You're right it's driven by government and not a consumer S Curve. EU 95g drove BEV+PHEV share of new car sales from a meager 3-4% in 2019 to 20% in 2021. Since then it's only increased ~1%/year, which IMHO qualifies as a major slowdown. The next 95g stair step hits in 2025 and will drive share above 30%. Then another flat spot and then...... well it's not entirely clear. There was momentum toward a huge step in 2030 and ICE bans in 2035, but many are lobbying against that. VW still thinks high quotas give them a big advantage, though, and ID1 is part of their pro-quota lobbying effort. They're trying to address claims from the "go slow" lobby that BEVs are too expensive and elitist.

 

[kpanda17]

I think European car companies are going strong on EVs because their governments are pushing full ahead with no major slowdowns. In the US, I think a lot hinges on this election on wether legacy auto will push as much.

The mindset and oil companies in the US is quite strong against EVs. I have seen an ad play on television almost every night while watching the local news about how Biden wants to ban cars (paid for by the fuel industry). Of course, it’s more fear mongering.

the achieving energy independence after 40 years does not help, the oil companies will say to the govt and public, thank you for your support

hate when that happens