The demise of the OEMs

[Doggydogworld]

But they do now!

I mean, they had to buy the whole powertrain from BYD, but they have a BEV there now

First Toyota electric sedan powered by BYD earns 5,000 orders on first sales day

Toyota’s first electric sedan, the bZ3, powered by BYD technology, received a warm welcome on its first day on the...

electrek.co

They've had a couple BEVs in China for years plus they try to sell the bZ4xqpwktys there, but it's all just a rounding error. Maybe bz3 will do better or maybe the 5k orders are a PR stunt. I'd like to see BYD and Toyota merge, but neither government would allow it. Toyota has a strong brand in Europe and very strong in Japan, US and ROW. BYD dominates China and has the battery tech, but is very weak or non-existent elsewhere. I don't put a lot of stock in JVs, e.g. look at Toyota's JV with GM at NUMMI or their later deal with Tesla.

 

[Buckminster]

I can only imagine that the 10% drop is to kill BYD. Killing BYD is merely a continuation of Elon Vs Buffett tête-à-tête.

BYD impact discussed by Rob:

Elon didn't want total domination but that is what he is getting.

 

[heltok]

Mobileye even mentions an EV manufacturer that has been lowering prices[read Tesla] as a reason for fewer future sales. I think BYD Q1 results don't fully show this as they still can offload some production to dealerships, but eventually they will have saturated dealerships. I expect to see more parking lots filling up:

 

[Doggydogworld]

BYD impact discussed by Rob:

Elon didn't want total domination but that is what he is getting.

BYD has always been a lot more seasonal than Tesla. Tesla's price cuts had a huge effect in China, not only offsetting LNY and the subsidy cuts, but actually producing ~13% (~16k units) sequential growth. In fact, China produced all of Q1's sequential growth -- net unit growth ex-China was basically zero despite the huge price cuts.

If BYD changes their 2023 goal of 3.6m EV sales then I'll agree Tesla's price cuts caused too much pain. Until then I'll withhold judgement.

 

[Buckminster]

There’s a facet to price cuts that I’m not reading anywhere.

Tesla are announcing to the market “you are now passing parity point”. For anybody watching and considering a brand new car, it simplifies their decision a great deal. They would need rocks in their head to buy a freshly made ICE that will have no resale value. The idea of an orderly transition from ICE to EV is bollocks, imo. Legacy’s demise is going to be sudden.

Corolla sales are plummeting. If we’re seeing the beginnings of the great ICE production crash of the 20s, Tesla’s price cuts deserve some credit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652636115122233345

 

[heltok]

Chinese emission standards forcing them to panic sell at huge losses, Tesla's "totally not a price war just aggressively lowering prices to capture market share", high interest rates killing consumers, Chinese EVs going on export in the pacifics, IRA benefiting Tesla in US, European emission standards going up etc. Not gonna be fun next few quarters for OEMs.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Ford Mach-E & F150 not selling that well, high inventory at dealers. I wonder if dealers fail before OEMs - harder to hold stock in a high-interest environment.

7:27 for F150
4:30 for Mach-E

 

[Buckminster]

Ford Mach-E & F150 not selling that well, high inventory at dealers. I wonder if dealers fail before OEMs - harder to hold stock in a high-interest environment.

7:27 for F150
4:30 for Mach-E



View attachment 934089

View attachment 934091

Also, when the price is dropping!

 

[Knightshade]

Ford Mach-E & F150 not selling that well, high inventory at dealers. I wonder if dealers fail before OEMs - harder to hold stock in a high-interest environment.

7:27 for F150
4:30 for Mach-E



View attachment 934089

View attachment 934091

Are the days in inventory based on Q1 production- a time when the factory was shut down for much of the quarter for upgrades, greatly reducing the # produced- and thus using that for "days of inventory" wouldn't be accurate?

Same problem with the -102% margin thing--- no doubt Ford is losing a bunch on each car, but using that quarter specifically to suggest it's typical loss would be like using the Q2 that Shanghai was shutdown for a couple months and suggesting that's typical Tesla results.

 

[EVNow]

Are the days in inventory based on Q1 production

No - deliveries.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Are the days in inventory based on Q1 production- a time when the factory was shut down for much of the quarter for upgrades, greatly reducing the # produced- and thus using that for "days of inventory" wouldn't be accurate?

Same problem with the -102% margin thing--- no doubt Ford is losing a bunch on each car, but using that quarter specifically to suggest it's typical loss would be like using the Q2 that Shanghai was shutdown for a couple months and suggesting that's typical Tesla results.

Dunno. I would have thought that days of inventory was more to do with sales, and it's referring to dealer stock I believe. Running down stock due to low production would seem to make the numbers worse for Ford and especially their dealers.

First time Ford have split out EVs like this as far as I know. We'll see more data in future. Ford's accountants could be doing a number of things to either help or hinder the EV part's figures, depending on how costs are allocated to different entities/cost centres across the 3 parts. Mach-E isn't a new product though, so I would have hoped Ford would be in a better position by now with its EVs.

I do think Tesla is way ahead at controlling costs, partly due to less overhead per decision made.

 

[Buckminster]

House of cards developing for USA OEMs.

There will always be new Luddites. They eventually evaporate.

I honestly think this hurts the UAW more than Biden. With EVs, the labor force for building cars is dwindling. That makes the UAW less and less relevant every passing year. That horse has left the barn and is not coming back.

Good riddance, the UAW is a cancer on this country and is the primary reason for the downfall of the auto industry here (sans Tesla).

 

[Buckminster]

I didn't realize just how bad it's been for automakers not named Tesla the past week. Solving the Money Problem sums it up pretty well:

- Toyota CHEATED safety tests (on 4 vehicles)
- Ford -102% EV margins (RIP)
- BYD gave up on FSD
- VW = fooked (can’t figure out software)
- China ICE market IMPLODING
- Lucid = fooked (money furnace & can’t sell vehicles)
- Rivian bleeding $

https://twitter.com/x/status/1655851551972540416

 

[Buckminster]

Hmm, so even after tax incentives kicked in, Mustang Mach E sales seem to be grinding to a halt.

US sales: 998 in March
Production in March: 7,381

I just looked and there are 53 Mach Es on the lot within 50 miles of where I live, over 6300 in the nation in inventory.

It’s actually a pretty great car. I’m surprised it’s not selling better than that. Sadly it doesn’t really compare favorably to model Y. Especially at these prices. $65-82k es mucho.

It must really suck trying to compete with tesla.

View attachment 936517

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1656973816982061057

Have they heard of AI coding assistance?

 

[Rhoon-NL]

'The European OEMs are ahead in terms of profitability'

Motor1 Numbers OEM Profits - 7249137

View Motor1 Numbers OEM Profits images from our Motor1 Numbers Profitable OEMs photo gallery. Photo ID: 7249137

www.motor1.com

 

[petit_bateau]

As predicted before the Brexshit referendum ........

Vauxhall-maker warns Brexit may force it to close UK factory

Vauxhall-maker Stellantis is calling on the government to renegotiate some Brexit rules or risk losing electric

www.bbc.com

Stellantis tells UK to change Brexit deal or see car plants close

British car plants will close with the loss of thousands of jobs unless the Brexit deal is swiftly renegotiated, Stellantis has warned, as Ford added its voice to the latest warning from the auto industry since Britain left the European Union.

www.reuters.com

Hunt says government to open immigration for key sectors, but only in ‘short term’ – as it happened

Jeremy Hunt says the government can open borders for care homes and construction workers that are facing worker shortages

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

Oh dear, Brexshit really has landed, exactly as predicted ......... I can't see any reason why the EU might want to do any renegotiating. So my guess is the UK will try to show a bit of leg on the defence front and wiffle about unity and Ukraine and stuff.

Ford, Vauxhall owner and JLR call for UK to renegotiate Brexit deal

Carmakers call on Britain to change rules on batteries that they say threaten electric vehicle production

www.theguardian.com

 

[petit_bateau]

These may interest folk re OEM manouevres and their costs. (and the consequences of Brexshit) ..... and of course it remains to be seen whether £500m will be enough to pull JLR's battery plant to the site near Bristol/Somerset that Tesla rejected

Jaguar Land Rover owner offered £500m in subsidies to build battery plant in UK

Incentive from Jeremy Hunt comes only days after three carmakers issued Brexit rules warning

www.theguardian.com

‘We’re going all in’: how France raced ahead of UK on electric car batteries

State subsidies and industry backing pull in foreign investment as country creates ‘Battery Valley’

www.theguardian.com

Brexit blame game erupts again: how leaving EU came back to bite Tories

Carmakers’ criticisms and migration figures add to pressure on Rishi Sunak, who is not trusted by leavers

www.theguardian.com

 

[replicant]

Europe's Euro 7 emission limits face pushback from eight countries

The countries said the tougher limits for pollutants including nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide could divert crucial investments needed to reach the EU's goal of effectively banning new combustion engine vehicles after 2035.

europe.autonews.com