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The demise of the OEMs

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#201
Dealer inventory is 55 days in the USA. 60 is considered ideal. Dealer inventory was way too low a year ago leading to dealer markups of up to $50k on luxury electric vehicles.

EV inventory is at 92 days. A year ago it was 36 days.

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www.wardsauto.com

Dealer Inventory Supply Continues to Grow

Some manufacturers may cut prices to keep models flowing through dealers’ lots, reports Cox.
www.wardsauto.com www.wardsauto.com
 
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#202
RobStark said:
Dealer inventory is 55 days in the USA. 60 is considered ideal. Dealer inventory was way too low a year ago leading to dealer markups of up to $50k on luxury electric vehicles.

EV inventory is at 92 days. A year ago it was 36 days.

View attachment 951981

www.wardsauto.com

Dealer Inventory Supply Continues to Grow

Some manufacturers may cut prices to keep models flowing through dealers’ lots, reports Cox.
www.wardsauto.com www.wardsauto.com
Click to expand...
OEMs heading for their own red wedding. I think you know that...
 
#204
RobStark said:
Dealer inventory is 55 days in the USA. 60 is considered ideal. Dealer inventory was way too low a year ago leading to dealer markups of up to $50k on luxury electric vehicles.

EV inventory is at 92 days. A year ago it was 36 days.

View attachment 951981

www.wardsauto.com

Dealer Inventory Supply Continues to Grow

Some manufacturers may cut prices to keep models flowing through dealers’ lots, reports Cox.
www.wardsauto.com www.wardsauto.com
Click to expand...
EVs at dealers excluding Tesla & other direct sellers? So that implies non-Tesla/direct brands/models of EVs are really struggling. Leaf/Ariya/Mach-E/Bolt/ID4/Polestar/Volvo? I'm not sure if Leaf or Bolt are still for sale btw. Some ICE brands do worse than 100 days

above the industry average of 55 days’ supply, including GMC, Ford, Lincoln and Ram, while Dodge is about 100 days, and Jeep, Buick and Chrysler are above 100 days, according to Cox Automotive
Click to expand...
 
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#205
UkNorthampton said:
EVs at dealers excluding Tesla & other direct sellers? So that implies non-Tesla/direct brands/models of EVs are really struggling. Leaf/Ariya/Mach-E/Bolt/ID4/Polestar/Volvo? I'm not sure if Leaf or Bolt are still for sale btw. Some ICE brands do worse than 100 days
Click to expand...

I don't know if they include Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid in their days inventory metric. Probably not. Tesla is super secretive. Cox has dealer partners to give them a good sample size to do their estimates. People that have tried to count Tesla inventory say sometimes Tesla adds loads of cars and sometimes they remove loads of cars overnight to their declared inventory on tesla.com

Yes, since Tesla cut prices EVs are piling up at franchised dealer lots. 92 days inventory overall for EV on dealer lots. We are starting to see subsidized financing at Mercedes and Ford for EVs. Whereas before Tesla price cuts Kia EV6 and Ioniq 5 were going for $5k-$10k above sticker they are now going $1k under sticker. Not having full access to $7500 federal credit hurts too. They are trying to take advantage of leasing loophole and get all their customers to lease.

LEAF has a '24 model year edition. Bolt is being discontinued for the '24 model year. Mary Barra implied it will return at some point in the future with Ultium architecture.

Average is 55 days inventory. Some brands do worse while others do better. Before the Pandemic it was normal for Detroit brands to offer $3k-$15k discounts. MSRP was inflated and negotiating big discounts was part of the game. Detroit is resisting going back to discounting. During the pandemic they filled dealer lots with high trim vehicles now consumers are demanding lower trims. Again Detroit is resisting. Particularly Stellantis. The Pandemic offered record profits and record margins on forced lower volume because of chip shortages among other shortages. Detroit, Japan, and Korea is trying to "maintain discipline" on production volumes.
 
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#207
Knightshade said:
What's interesting is the narrative for a good while was demand for EVs during the transition was so high anybody who made a decent EV could sell all they want and thus legacy OEM EVs weren't actually competing with Tesla they were competing with their own ICE vehicles-- but now they're having trouble selling both kinds.
Click to expand...
Was that narrative wrong or is something else happening?
For example:
  • The prices have to be somewhat normalized between ICE to EV for the narrative to be true. Many manufacturers still charge a big premium for EV vs ICE, like for like. Price Elasticity of Demand, the measure of the degree to which the quantity demanded changes in response to a change in price, is playing out.
  • As you just correctly stated : "anybody who made a decent EV...". As it turns out, many EVs are not decent. E.g. VW ID4 and Ford MachE have arguably sub par infotainment systems. Customers care about things like that.
Until the end of 2022 while manufacturers and dealers could barely keep up with raising prices and wait lists were long, those issues were largely invisible. This quote by Warren Buffett comes to mind: “You never know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out.”
 
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#212
Oh dear, what a shame, all this Brexit thing (another good reason to dump underperforming factories during a survival crisis)

" Brussels to stick with plan for post-Brexit tariffs on UK EV imports from 2024, London and carmakers seek delay but commission official says levies will provide incentive for EU battery production

The European Commission has insisted it will stick by plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles shipped between the UK and EU from next year after warning that the bloc was losing out in the global battle for battery investments.The British government, backed by carmakers from across Europe, is seeking a deferral of a post-Brexit trade rule it argues will heap excessive costs on to the industry from 2024 to 2027.The requirement under “rules of origin” requires EVs traded across the Channel to have 60 per cent of their battery and 45 per cent of their parts by value overall sourced from the EU or UK or face 10 per cent tariffs.But this week a senior commission official, Richard Szostak, told British and EU parliamentarians that battery investment in the bloc had “fallen off a cliff” and the tariffs would incentivise domestic production. The EU’s share of global investment in battery production dropped from 41 per cent in 2021 to just 2 per cent in 2022, after the US offered large subsidies under its Inflation Reduction Act, he noted.“In addition to the pull factor [from the US’s IRA] . . . we would be adding a push factor encouraging batteries to be bought in China or the US [by not introducing cross-Channel tariffs]. That is the other side of the discussion,” Szostak said. “The EU when judging its interest has to look at both sides of this question,” he added."

Brussels to stick with plan for post-Brexit tariffs on UK EV imports from 2024

London and carmakers seek delay but commission official says levies will provide incentive for EU battery production
www.ft.com www.ft.com

" Most Japanese and South Korean EVs can be imported into the UK tariff-free under the terms of their post-Brexit trade deals. This would mean EU carmakers losing market share in the UK if their EVs are hit with 10 per cent levies."

......... so UK based factories are first on the block. Just as predicted by Remain during the Brexit referendum. Apparently 52% of votes did not think this was important.
 
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#213
Stretch2727 said:
GM's lack of EV progress. They stopped highlighting total EV sales in the powerpoint deck.

Q2 2023

Hummer - 47 - Down 80% over last year.
Lyriq - 1348
Bolt - 13959 off the pace of Q1 of about 20K, up 100% over last year when the recall was still going on.

Tesla's estimated increase units in the US Q1 to Q2 (about 18K units) is more than the total GM US EV sales. The really bad thing is they are launching the Silverado and Blazer have not even gotten the Hummer and Lyriq off the ground. yes, Mary lead.

Click to expand...
They are discontinuing the Bolt in 6 months....
space_s3x said:
View attachment 953455
Click to expand...
 
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#214
The last Ford Fiesta leaves the assembly line on Friday, marking the end of an era for a model that sold 22m vehicles globally and is the UK’s all-time bestselling car. As the final vehicle leaves production in its factory in Cologne, Germany, Ford will be ushering in a new line of electric vehicles. Ford said: “At Ford in Europe, we are rapidly transitioning to an electric future. “As part of this transition, production of the Fiesta in Cologne, Germany, will be discontinued on 7 July, and a new era at the Cologne electric vehicle centre will begin.”

etc

www.theguardian.com

Ford Fiesta: production ends of UK’s all-time bestselling car

Final vehicle built at factory in Cologne as carmaker moves over to electric vehicles
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
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#218
Maarten said:
VW is, according to Arena EV, cutting down its price on ID3 in China.

Excerpt:
- Price has now come down to 15.400 euro for base model, which starts at almost 40.000 euro (!) in Europe;
- "Local competitors are playing a significant role in this shift, with brands like BYD and Tesla dominating various price segments of the market."
- "Recent drop in electric car sales from the German automaker suggests the customers caught on what's really happening and are shopping somewhere else."
- "No surprise then that VW is forced to cut shifts and production of EVs in Europe while bemoaning dropping sales - while its competitors post record-breaking sales."

At this level VW must be making a considerable loss on each ID3 in China.
The above shows the enormous battle that is raging.
Outside here on this forum people have - in my experience- no clue this epic battle is happening right now.
And Tesla hasn’t even started with their next gen model.


www.arenaev.com

Volkswagen cuts ID.3 price in China - now starts from $16,500

Volkswagen ID.3 takes a new turn in the Chinese EV market with a 16% price cut, a move aimed at bolstering its competitive standing amid fierce local competition.
www.arenaev.com www.arenaev.com
Click to expand...
 
#219
TN Mtn Man said:
GM throws in the towel concerning building affordable, smaller cars in the US.



www.cnbc.com

GM positions new Chevy Trax, Buick Envista crossovers to fill an affordability gap

GM's new 2024 Buick Envista and redesigned 2024 Chevrolet Trax crossovers start at $23,495 and $20,400, respectively.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Funny how CNBC buries that little detail in the article. I do hope that TSLA decides to open a "Model 2" (or whatever the "$25,000 Tesla will be called) assembly line in a US factory, just to keep the "Most US Made" title and shut down that bit of FUD.
Click to expand...
 
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