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Had to grab another ticket just because. Ticket number when I bought it the other night was #1362 if anyone's curious as to how many have been sold so far.
Yes, it will be webcast! Off of the climate-xchange.org/tesla-raffle website.
I wonder if other organizations will imitate this raffle's model of car + taxes. That'd make the raffles more appealing.
How do you plan to actually do the raffle? Big drum with tickets? Random.org?
And we ran an experiment today with 2000 tickets to make sure that the drum really would mix the tickets up nicely, so that we don't have to worry that we'll be unfair to someone based on order of loading tickets.
Wow, almost 1500 now.... I was #94 :smile:
Alan, thanks for the detailed answer (as always)!!!
Just one word of warning -- another car group I'm a part of has a very similar tin/copper raffle ticket drum, and very often those kinds of raffle tickets get stuck in the seams on the inside of the drum when turning it, and also sometimes tickets just fall out of the door seams!! So please be careful to make sure all tickets get a fair spin and aren't stuck in the door or a metal seam. thanks!
But statistically, speaking, does it matter? All tickets have the same probability of getting stuck in the seams, and any individual is as likely to get improved odds of being picked as getting eliminated from getting picked, so Alan, you are amazing in thinking through this whole thing so beautifully, and please don't let "sweating the small stuff" keep you from really having fun. Do what you can and what you want, but set a good example for us recovering perfectionists and please let the rest go. Can't wait to "meet" you on the live stream!
There is a reason you suggested random.org, right? That's who I use as well.Yes, all tickets are at equal odds of getting stuck in a seam and being eliminated from being drawn. That changes the odds, since now there are two "drawings" -- one getting stuck (eliminated) and the main pull. And I'm sorry, this isn't "small stuff". What if it's your ticket that got stuck in a seam?
There is a reason you suggested random.org, right? That's who I use as well.
Alan - funny stuff. Yet at the same time quite a well thought out process. Your efforts are simply amazing. Thank you!!
Now - was I the only one to look at the photo Alan attached and try to find your ticket? One was close to mine but not exact.
Alan - funny stuff. Yet at the same time quite a well thought out process. Your efforts are simply amazing. Thank you!!
Now - was I the only one to look at the photo Alan attached and try to find your ticket? One was close to mine but not exact.
Wow, almost 1500 now.... I was #94 :smile:
Alan, thanks for the detailed answer (as always)!!!
Just one word of warning -- another car group I'm a part of has a very similar tin/copper raffle ticket drum, and very often those kinds of raffle tickets get stuck in the seams on the inside of the drum when turning it, and also sometimes tickets just fall out of the door seams!! So please be careful to make sure all tickets get a fair spin and aren't stuck in the door or a metal seam. thanks!
For only $30 per chance, you can win two great tickets for EVERY Music Hall show in 2016 and the thrilling opportunity to experience a 24 hour test drive of the Tesla Model S!!
NO REFUNDS
DRAWING TO TAKE PLACE ON 12/30/15
NO MUSIC HALL EMPLOYEES ALLOWED
RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR WILL DRAW WINNERS
ONE CHANCE PER ENTRY
THIS IS A GAME OF CHANCE, RAFFLE TICKETS NOT ELIGIBLE FOR TAX DEDUCTION.
Ah the bittersweet knowledge that as my odds of winning decrease, funds for saving the world increase.
So be it :smile::smile::biggrin:
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But statistically, speaking, does it matter? All tickets have the same probability of getting stuck in the seams, and any individual is as likely to get improved odds of being picked as getting eliminated from getting picked, so Alan, you are amazing in thinking through this whole thing so beautifully, and please don't let "sweating the small stuff" keep you from really having fun. Do what you can and what you want, but set a good example for us recovering perfectionists and please let the rest go. Can't wait to "meet" you on the live stream!
Yes, all tickets are at equal odds of getting stuck in a seam and being eliminated from being drawn. That changes the odds, since now there are two "drawings" -- one getting stuck (eliminated) and the main pull. And I'm sorry, this isn't "small stuff". What if it's your ticket that got stuck in a seam?
I haven't run any real raffles, but I see random.org being used in a lot of contests, raffles, and door prize awards. It's pretty hard to argue with a set of random numbers returned by random.org. No "hanging chad".
If you're going to continue with raffles in future, you could invest in 2000 ping pong balls.
It's probably because I've been a software engineer for a long time, before my colleagues wised up and devised a dummy source tree for me to check into as often as I wished, that I have no trust in electronics for this problem. How do I know that it's really random? How do I know it hasn't been intercepted? How does someone else know *I* haven't rigged up something, somewhere -- maybe sniffing my own net, intercepting a request for random.org, interposing my own server... No, no, I'm not going with an electronic solution for this go 'round.
also see the recent news about the lottery computer tech charged with sharing the winning numbers with his bigfoot hunting friends and getting kickbacks. Insider threat is always the biggest challenge.