trading

[Antares Nebula]

Anyone buying this week's options for tomorrow's ER ? IV is in the 90s.

I've been buying a few 240 puts as insurance against a long term position. Got them mostly between 2.00 - 2.70 between yesterday and today.

I may also buy 260 or 270 calls tomorrow if it dips.

My approach going into this week was pretty simple. Buy calls if it dips; puts if pops or stays elevated.

 

[bdy0627]

Anyone buying this week's options for tomorrow's ER ? IV is in the 90s.

I've got a few this week for a run up to the ER. Wasn't planning to hold through ER, but I may if we don't climb today.

 

[jbih]

I'm planning to sell a small amount of my shares and buy Jan 2021 calls with strikes between $250 and $400.

I sell the shares just before the earnings call when the expectations is the highest.

I believe the calls will be cheaper after the earnings call because:

1. The implied volatility goes down after the earnings call
2. The FUD machinery will try to bring the stock down

I'll buy the calls on Friday or Monday due to settlement time, it also gives time for the FUD to do it's work.

The FUD machinery was pretty ineffective recently so I'm not at all sure the stock price will go down. I won't be sad when the price goes up either though

 

[defc0n]

Sold LTHM for small profit today. Should've played the run-up before earnings release today on TSLA but I didn't. Wishing you all good luck, it will certainly be interesting to see what happens, but I'm unwilling to make a prediction.

 

[defc0n]

Shorting QQQ

 

[bdy0627]

Sold most of my weeklies after this climb into close.

 

[bdy0627]

Looks like FCF was pretty solid, though I thought it would be higher. The GAAP loss was quite a bit worse than expected. Market clearly expected better given the record deliveries for the quarter. Now to start preparing for the next entry point down the road...

 

[Antares Nebula]

I expected stock to dip in the regular session today, and was going to buy weekly calls. When it went up instead, I swapped my 240 puts for 250s and sold some 275 calls. Was certainly nervous, but got lucky today. Still holding my long term position. Will add as/if it goes lower.

Really hard to play these things. My only logic was that, since the 180 bottom, it went up pretty fast (and with many gaps), and should therefore pull back. But if the numbers beat, it would not have. Like I said, got lucky today.

 

[Boomer19]

i trimmed nov and kicked forward to mar20 300c

very glad i did this.

 

[defc0n]

Well I wouldn’t expect much of a drop before earnings now anyway. Zero clue what happens from now until it’s reported though. Chart wise, either this price or maybe around $265 would be believable for the medium term rebound price from $180. I would still expect we’d have to see a bit of a correction from there before it goes higher (Personally I’d like to try buying at $220-230 soonish)

I might try day trading the day before the report though if I see strength shortly after the open to hopefully make a quick buck.

I’m too much of a weenie to hold during the report this time around though good luck to you braver souls than I.

With JB leaving I’m less confident about my desired $220-$230 buying range. Will uptick rule be in effect tomorrow ?

 

[mongo]

Will uptick rule be in effect tomorrow ?

If we hit -10% at any point during normal trading then yes, uptick tomorrow and Friday.

 

[EVNow]

I was genuinely puzzled this quarter and ended up buying some puts and calls for a strangle of 290/230. But paid too much buying in the last hour and thus got too OTM, so will just break even.

 

[Sudre]

I was thinting a 210 low... maybe 205. I am hoping to buy back Calls I sold.

 

[bdy0627]

I was thinting a 210 low... maybe 205. I am hoping to buy back Calls I sold.

With this large of an initial gap down plus the uptick rule in effect, I think that's very unlikely. I think we may actually be higher Friday than the low today, and I expect the low to be near the open. In the past, once the uptick rule kicks in, the stock trades in a pretty boring fashion, not usually dropping further but rather climbing mildly. It also seems to protect from a big drop after the uptick rule expires 2 trading days later. The caveat is that this time could be different because of how far we climbed from the bottom, but I'm guessing it probably won't be different.

 

[Boomer19]

are we going to test 177 again over the coming weeks/months?

i don’t see how there can be confidence, especially since we know a shitstorm of misconstrued information is coming down the pike regarding that release.

i mean, they are doing well and making progress, but given what we know about how the market wants and needs tsla to trade, it looks like another rocky ride coming.

if enhanced summon comes out soon, not end of year, but soon, and is good, and can stop at signs/lights...then that may go a long way to restoring trust and confidence in them. should reflect in the sp as well

otherwise, the perception is that it’s tesla losing money as usual...making progress but doing it expensively along the way...always light at end of tunnel, but never quite reaching it.

- truck reveal won’t change it.
- it’s been two years since semi release
- model y still expected late next year (while out of the other side of his mouth, he states a 75% overlap with 3 - im actually optimistic about y coming earlier, like he’s sandbagging a bit - crazy, i know)
- energy still not generating 1/2b rev yet, actually down YoY
(and MWh deployment is double YoY) - like wtf!?!?!?
- solar continues to dwindle while others gain tesla’s lost market share

they need more guillens and JBs, not less of them

i hope baglino is a real player, he seems to be. but he needs help too.

with an earnings like that, and at 10b in shorts, how can we expect short not to increase?

we have election coming, all kinds of macro issues. it’s all lining up for another test below 200. but market has a funny way of doing the opposite.

does the cash flow generation finally start to sink in with these fanatics? they aren’t going bankrupt.

they also aren’t very good, yet, at doing what they do. but they are learning. they are learning expensively. it’s definitely trending better. q1 mess was a lot to overcome in one single quarter. and actually, it was less than 1 quarter in regards to ravens...

so, where do we go next?

 

[Boomer19]

how tf is it not in uptick rule yet

 

[Wooloomooloo]

are we going to test 177 again over the coming weeks/months?

i don’t see how there can be confidence, especially since we know a shitstorm of misconstrued information is coming down the pike regarding that release.

i mean, they are doing well and making progress, but given what we know about how the market wants and needs tsla to trade, it looks like another rocky ride coming.

if enhanced summon comes out soon, not end of year, but soon, and is good, and can stop at signs/lights...then that may go a long way to restoring trust and confidence in them. should reflect in the sp as well

What does enhanced summon have to do with profitability? Do you really think a feature like that is going to make people who would never consider a Tesla before suddenly say "I gotta have that"?

Tesla had record sales this quarter, and a very respectable $50k ASP on the Model 3, but didn't break even. That might be OK if the strategy was clear, but it's not. I have not seen or heard anyone outline what the strategy even is, to make the company profitable with the current lineup and market conditions, which by the way will only deteriorate in the next 2 - 3 years. The Model 3 ASP will only decline from here-on-in, so this is as good as it gets. People have been referring to unicorn efficiencies since 2017 and while there have been huge improvements, the margins aren't there yet.

The narrative that Wall St somehow has unrealistic expectations of the company and is driving down the valuation is BS. Wall St drove UP the valuation to almost $80bn at one point (which was silly), and it's still valued at $47bn right now, which is probably fair. This is even without a clear path to full year profitability until 2021 at the very earliest. Over the next 4 quarters, at best there will be one quarter profitability and then it's all about the Model Y ramp up, which will be expensive.

so, where do we go next?

I think Tesla is being mismanaged - I honestly think better leadership and a more focused strategy could drag them into profitability. The Model Y is crucial. A Mad Max Cyber Punk pickup isn't.

I love my Tesla, and I'd recommend it to anyone who will listen. It's a great car. But I have to day, Tesla remind me of another car company I used to love many decades ago. Saab.

 

[defc0n]

Shorting QQQ

Bought back my QQQ short (sold PSQ) for a small gain. Playing small ball and just cashing in small gains has been working very well for me.

 

[defc0n]

Bought ALB on this dip.

 

[Burrito]

so given the 15% drop overnight, do you all think tesla is prime for a decent investment or rollercoaster status is still in effect