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I remember vaguely that an release of something autonomy is planned for around August 15th. Is it V10 or something else? If it's good, might influence the stock price.
But that would be to EAP (beta testers) only, who are on NDA. Usually someone leaks the info and posts on youtube - until then, we won't know whats in it. I don't expect anything major in it - just recognition of traffic lights & stop signs that Musk tweeted about.
 
So I'm playing the symmetrical triangle pattern that I posted about yesterday, which tops out around the 233-236 area over the next few days (and keeps descending). Right on the edge now.

Therefore I sold 235 calls and bought 240 calls, for approx 3.30 and 1.30 respectively. That's a net credit of 2.0. I did 6 of these contract pairs. This is the first time I'm doing a call spread (or credit spread). Usually I just sell calls (and only rarely). But this way, my risk is contained. No matter how high TSLA goes this week, my max risk per contract pair is about $3 (5 - 2). But if I see a definitive upside break tomorrow, then I'll close this spread out well before my max loss. If I was really bold, I would have just sold the 235 calls. But by also buying the 240 calls, I contain my risk, because you never know with Tesla.

I'm still not sure whether the symmetrical triangle pattern will break to the upside or downside (odds favor a downside break, but not definitively). Anyway, just thought I would give this a shot. Been tempted to do it many times, but never did. If I get burned on this, then I'll just continue to keep it simple by only *buying* puts and calls.
Closed this position for a net debit of 0.72 per call spread -- bought the 240 calls back for 1.07 and sold the 240 calls for 0.35. That makes 2.00 (yesterday's net credit) - 0.72 = 1.28 profit per spread.

I think in all likelihood TSLA will close under 235 by Friday. Had I kept this call spread open till then, I would have then profited the entire $2.00. But we had such a quick move down, so I went ahead and took profits. Plus you never know, we could be at 240 come Friday. These are trades, not investments. You don't hold it. You take profits and don't get greedy. That's my approach. If we go back up, then I may consider doing it again.
 
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Is S&P support around the 2825 level?

Don't have many strong theories on that right now. I think we're either at a bottom pretty much now, at ~ $2750, or close to $2650.

$2400 would make me very excited to see indeed. In what I consider a worst case scenario that shouldn't happen anytime "soon", $2100 would be my bet the farm / take a loan out against my farm price. A full blown recession could perhaps get us there, though.
 
Don't have many strong theories on that right now. I think we're either at a bottom pretty much now, at ~ $2750, or close to $2650.

$2400 would make me very excited to see indeed. In what I consider a worst case scenario that shouldn't happen anytime "soon", $2100 would be my bet the farm / take a loan out against my farm price. A full blown recession could perhaps get us there, though.
December low was 2350. I'm wondering whether it is bad enough now to move the 529 funds to more bonds.
 
None of us expected this today for sure. I thought it was heading down, but not so quickly. I would have expected some kind of bounce around the 226 area, if not a bit lower. Didn't really get it. Long solid red candle today suggests further downside.

Also, because we lost support around 220-225, the charts now point to 190/200 area as a target. To avoid this, we need to bounce hard tomorrow and create a major reversal.

Definitely oversold on the one hour chart, so maybe at least a small bounce, before eventually heading lower.

Anyway, no man's land here. I don't have any more trades on (still holding core position). May buy puts or sell calls if we get a bounce in the morning. Otherwise, my plan is to sit tight and wait and add to my long term position around 200 and average down if needed. I'm looking at the 205 and 197 gap fills specifically.

GLTA!
 
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Man, the sidelines feel comfy right now. It sure doesn't feel like this market carnage is over at this point. What happened in the last hour of trading with TSLA? Looks like quite the bear attack to push it way down that was not mirrored at all by the market, news, or other tech/auto stocks. The attack clearly failed to hold it down further. I will gladly continue to watch this bloodbath from the sidelines, all in cash.
 
December low was 2350. I'm wondering whether it is bad enough now to move the 529 funds to more bonds.

That hard drop to 2350 gives me no faith in the strength of this market. Are we not worse off now than back then? Inverted yield curve and worse tariff situation. More global economic slowdowns reported. Hong Kong riots. Lackluster earnings.

What are the possible positives? China trade deal, easing of HK tensions, investors calming down with rate cuts being implemented across the globe. Only the latter seems terribly likely to me. Probably too little too late though, but could improve sentiment heavily in the short term.

With a gun to my head, I’d say to avoid most stocks until Halloween and see where we are then. But I wouldn’t be willing to make a prediction on that otherwise.

I’ve been heavily in bonds almost the entire year and don’t intend to change that until I see the next huge drop. I assume that could take up to around 2 years possibly. I am a believer that the inverted yield curve is quite a good indicator of what’s likely to come. Beware of an election year too.

With all that said, watch the market manage to somehow reach 3100 this year anyway...