trading

[Antares Nebula]

It wants lower. Waaaaaaay too much supply at the $245 mark. So many people bagholding at $245 that they just want out. No chance of breakout without crazy news like Model Y starting production this quarter or someone like Carl Icahn loading the boat.

I take it then that you sold your trading shares? What made you change your tune? You were quite bullish a couple of weeks ago. I agree that there is a lot of supply up there due to a multi-year support being broken at 250. It is now a resistance level. (Not an exact level, more of a range between 250-300, that gets "thicker" as you move up.)

 

[Antares Nebula]

This is a chart that's been floating on the net among traders recently. Take it as you will.

 

[bdy0627]

It seems like choppy waters until ER. With the likely ~10% drop in revenue YOY and pretty much unchanged revenue from Q2, I expect strong attacks on the growth story. It's difficult to picture the stock shooting up on that. Seems more likely to go down. Q4 seems like it will be pretty similar to Q3 with probably a small amount of production and delivery growth, revenue again down YOY. We have been warned that Q1 2020 is going to be tough. FSD claims by Elon appear likely to disappoint in the short term, at least over the next 6-9 months.

All of this to me suggests the best way to approach TSLA is just trading it short term after dips with the expectation that it is unlikely to climb out of this range for a while.

 

[EVNow]

This is a chart that's been floating on the net among traders recently. Take it as you will.

View attachment 462826

Interesting that SP is practically at the same place as it was after Q2 P&D.

After Q2 SP ran up to 265 before falling after ER. I don't know whether there will be a run up this time.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Interesting that SP is practically at the same place as it was after Q2 P&D.

After Q2 SP ran up to 265 before falling after ER. I don't know whether there will be a run up this time.

The devil is in the details. The Q2 deliveries report surprised to the upside. After gapping up on the report, the stock continued to climb to 265, as analysts quickly revised up their revenue and earnings numbers. Then it gapped down after the earnings report, partly because the report disappointed and partly because it was a buy the rumor, sell the news (the run-up already occurred).

Q3 (thus far) appears the opposite. The stock gapped down on a "disappointing" deliveries report. But what is interesting now is that both bulls and bears believe it will run up into the earnings report (bears are talking on social media how they're going to short the stock after the run-up, but before the report is released because they believe the earnings are going to be so bad (another big loss) due to the "dismal" deliveries numbers). Perhaps they believe this because it is what happened after Q2.

But stocks rarely behave as people expect. Honestly I don't know what will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get the opposite this time. Everybody is expecting a horrible report, so maybe the stock continues to sell off, and then the report surprises to the upside and the stock goes back up. And, what do you know, we're right back were we started.

 

[defc0n]

Bought LTHM

Sold for small profit.

 

[EVNow]

But stocks rarely behave as people expect. Honestly I don't know what will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get the opposite this time. Everybody is expecting a horrible report, so maybe the stock continues to sell off, and then the report surprises to the upside and the stock goes back up. And, what do you know, we're right back were we started.

Well, SP goes up again for no apparent reason.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Well, SP goes up again for no apparent reason.

Need to separate fundamentals from technicals. No fundamental reason (and even the macros were down), but TA suggested it may go up. If you look at the chart above, it was at the bottom of the triangle formation, with room to move towards the top. Not sure if it will get all the way to the top, but you can play the range until it breaks. Obviously buying/selling at the top and bottom of the range is the least risky.

I bought 245 calls near the bottom today for 0.43. It closed near the high of the day, so I think we may see further upside tomorrow. May even gap up. If we can get above 240, I may sell the those calls, as it appears 245 is about the top of the triangle. Of course, it can break above (or below), but until that happens I play the range. When it breaks, have to re-evaluate and look for the next play.

 

[KSilver2000]

Interesting that SP is practically at the same place as it was after Q2 P&D.

After Q2 SP ran up to 265 before falling after ER. I don't know whether there will be a run up this time.

I hope there will be. If there is, I'm not holding any short term shares into ER again.
Just sold 1400 shares at 238 EOD that I bought at 229.50 last week. Will buy in again closer to 230 or under. With macros and TSLA, in general, no doubt that opportunity will be available again soon.

 

[anthonyj]

I take it then that you sold your trading shares? What made you change your tune? You were quite bullish a couple of weeks ago. I agree that there is a lot of supply up there due to a multi-year support being broken at 250. It is now a resistance level. (Not an exact level, more of a range between 250-300, that gets "thicker" as you move up.)

I never sell my trading shares. The thing with me is... I’m always buying more trading shares and timing my buys well, but I can’t bring myself to sell... selling puts is working well though. I just can’t bring myself to sell any shares under $300!

 

[defc0n]

TSLA does seem a bit stranger than usual with strength for no apparent short-term fundamental reason. Thinking it has a chance to run up now toward earnings. If so, I wouldn't hold it through earnings, though.

 

[jeewee3000]

TSLA does seem a bit stranger than usual with strength for no apparent short-term fundamental reason. Thinking it has a chance to run up now toward earnings. If so, I wouldn't hold it through earnings, though.

I agree: if it runs up towards earnings I'm getting out of my short term trades, if it drops below 230 I might open some short term positions to hold through earnings.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Sold my 245 calls at 2.60. Over 5x appreciation. Had to take profits. I don't think we'll move above 245 barring some significant news, as that is approx the top of the symmetrical triangle. The complete gap fill is just above 243.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Since we're at the top of the triangle, I bought 220 lotto puts for 18 cents. I also have 265 lotto calls which I bought last week for 4 cents. Also picked up 255 calls at the close for 25 cents -- had good profit this week on my 245 calls, so these minor outlays no bigee (and the new lower trading fees help). Most likely will return to the center of the triangle, and max pain is around 235.

Potential for some fireworks this week with trade talks. Maybe break out of the triangle?? Bold: Cramer calling a double top on SPY and a 260 price target. Maybe trade the opposite? Lol!

 

[EVNow]

Sold my 245 calls at 2.60. Over 5x appreciation. Had to take profits. I don't think we'll move above 245 barring some significant news, as that is approx the top of the symmetrical triangle. The complete gap fill is just above 243.

Good call. I missed out yesterday / today.

 

[bdy0627]

Since we're at the top of the triangle, I bought 220 lotto puts for 18 cents. I also have 265 lotto calls which I bought last week for 4 cents. Also picked up 255 calls at the close for 25 cents -- had good profit this week on my 245 calls, so these minor outlays no bigee (and the new lower trading fees help). Most likely will return to the center of the triangle, and max pain is around 235.

Potential for some fireworks this week with trade talks. Maybe break out of the triangle?? Bold: Cramer calling a double top on SPY and a 260 price target. Maybe trade the opposite? Lol!

I think SPY looks pretty shaky and could definitely see a sizeable drop to retest the long term lower trendline that is currently at $255. It's slanted upwards though so it could easily be $260 or so if/when a retest occurs. Hate to say it but I think Cramer may be right this time.

 

[defc0n]

SPY has been annoyingly resilient and not breaking below the $283/284 barrier several times. I’ve been very patient though as I didn’t feel like the trade war would ever really get resolved soon, even though we keep getting fed positivity about it every now and then.

It’s october, which is notoriously volatile, and things may finally start to break down again during this round of talks. Which as far as I can tell does appear to be happening.

Still mostly own boring bonds as I await the meltdown that doesn’t seem to ever come.

 

[bdy0627]

SPY has been annoyingly resilient and not breaking below the $283/284 barrier several times. I’ve been very patient though as I didn’t feel like the trade war would ever really get resolved soon, even though we keep getting fed positivity about it every now and then.

It’s october, which is notoriously volatile, and things may finally start to break down again during this round of talks. Which as far as I can tell does appear to be happening.

Still mostly own boring bonds as I await the meltdown that doesn’t seem to ever come.

I believe patience will be rewarded on this. We've got a serious trade war, some weakening economic data, a congress looking to impeach the Pres, and a looming election cycle. On the other side, earnings are coming over the next 4 weeks and Thanksgiving/Xmas seasonality is around the corner. It's difficult to imagine the market making new all time highs in the midst of all of this, and if it can't do that then it will either chop or rotate down. It kind of seems like so many market participants are expecting the move down that we keep seeing small squeezes that prevent the move. I've done really well trading SAAS stocks lately. The play right now is to buy the dips and quickly sell the rips. That may continue for a while. I don't know why TSLA would be any different for now, but I have not been trading it much lately.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Decision time:

 

[EVNow]

Tomorrow can be a volatile day - any moment a tweet or leak can happen about the meeting with vice-premier.