trading

[Boomer19]

glad this thread is still going

 

[UncaNed]

glad this thread is still going

Me too, but Is anyone paying attention to it? Wouldn't a serious trading question posted in the 2019-investors-roundtable forum be noticed by more of you knowing elders before it anybody pays attention to it in this forum?

 

[bdy0627]

Me too, but Is anyone paying attention to it? Wouldn't a serious trading question posted in the 2019-investors-roundtable forum be noticed by more of you knowing elders before it anybody pays attention to it in this forum?

The problem with that thread is the amount of noise. That's the point of this one. It's a little quiet here sometimes but very useful for those interested in this stuff. That's more than I can say about the main thread, which I rarely visit these days.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Well - the puts turned out very well. Closed those for $0.03 each.

The calls I plan to roll to Nov15 285 Strike for a small credit.

Bought back the calls: they had no time value at all and were negating all the profits in the equivalent stock position.

So I sold $290 puts for next week, Nov 01. They made money so fast that I rolled them up to $300. Let's see how monday goes.

I like to be short puts and calls, but at the moment TSLA is rising so fast that you get burnt with short calls.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Devil makes work for idle hands...

Been reviewing options, but I can't bring myself to sell puts or calls (or even vertical spreads) in this crazy market. Bullish momentum, but high volatility. I think I'm just going to keep it simple and buy the dips with mostly shares and maybe an occasional option here or there. Plus less stress and more time for other things. I think I'm going to start shifting to a time and mgmt light approach.

Look at Friday. It made good sense to take profit on some shares or at least sell calls after the 50 point move on Thursday. But had you done that, you would have eaten pavement. What about now at 330? Really tempted to take profit or sell calls even more now. I have to shackle myself to the wall or something. Just have to be disciplined and walk away.

Of course, it all depends on your experience level and risk tolerance. So each to his own. If I wasn't a long term investor but a trader, I would definitely take profits on my shares here (but not sell calls). JM2C

From looking at the 2013 chart, as well as some other stocks, and their percentage moves during big up moves like this, even if one assumes we are going above 400 to 1000, you can still expect 50-100 point drawdowns. Problem is the timing of those moves. So again, I can't think of a better strategy than simply to buy shares (or maybe even options) on those dips.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Me too, but Is anyone paying attention to it? Wouldn't a serious trading question posted in the 2019-investors-roundtable forum be noticed by more of you knowing elders before it anybody pays attention to it in this forum?

I have suggested in a previous post on the main thread that this trading thread be moved into the more visible and permanent sticky thread category and be merged with the Technical Analysis thread:

Also, for those that are trading around these events and getting frustrated, I would recommend the TMC trading thread:

trading

Group support and discussion can be helpful, especially for beginners; but traders of all skill levels benefit from discussion.

I would also suggest to the mods that the trading thread be put in the main sticky threads category. After all, this is the TMC "Investor Discussions" forum, and trading is certainly a part of investing (oh, let's not get into arguments here -- I'm a long term investor too).

Moreover, I would suggest that the trading, TA (Technical Analysis), and options thread be merged into one single unified sticky "Trading (and TA)" thread. While TA can be also be used for long term investing, it is especially useful for trading. So TA and trading kinda go hand in hand. And if you're an active trader, chances are you're trading options as well as shares. So, options, TA, and trading would make sense to be in one thread. It's especially frustrating when you have to post TA stuff in the TA thread and then come back to the trading thread to talk about your trades. I no longer do this; I post all my TA stuff now in the trading thread.

 

[anthonyj]

Devil makes work for idle hands...

Been reviewing options, but I can't bring myself to sell puts or calls (or even vertical spreads) in this crazy market. Bullish momentum, but high volatility. I think I'm just going to keep it simple and buy the dips with mostly shares and maybe an occasional option here or there. Plus less stress and more time for other things. I think I'm going to start shifting to a time and mgmt light approach.

Look at Friday. It made good sense to take profit on some shares or at least sell calls after the 50 point move on Thursday. But had you done that, you would have eaten pavement. What about now at 330? Really tempted to take profit or sell calls even more now. I have to shackle myself to the wall or something. Just have to be disciplined and walk away.

Of course, it all depends on your experience level and risk tolerance. So each to his own. If I wasn't a long term investor but a trader, I would definitely take profits on my shares here (but not sell calls). JM2C

From looking at the 2013 chart, as well as some other stocks, and their percentage moves during big up moves like this, even if one assumes we are going above 400 to 1000, you can still expect 50-100 point drawdowns. Problem is the timing of those moves. So again, I can't think of a better strategy than simply to buy shares (or maybe even options) on those dips.

Options are a dead strategy for me right now. I seriously think this will be a manufactured short squeeze caused by a single maniac bidding up the price to new heights. It could be the Saudi’s again (their investment conference is about to kick off), China, or even the rumored VW. Elon has the respect of all three. They wouldn’t mind buying $10B worth of shares on the open market. There’s literally no better time to force shorts to cover at $800...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Options are a dead strategy for me right now. I seriously think this will be a manufactured short squeeze caused by a single maniac bidding up the price to new heights. It could be the Saudi’s again (their investment conference is about to kick off), China, or even the rumored VW. Elon has the respect of all three. They wouldn’t mind buying $10B worth of shares on the open market. There’s literally no better time to force shorts to cover at $800...

It's certainly possible. There are certainly interested parties, as you mentioned. I would even add Apple to the list. They did try to buy them once before, right?

But what makes you so certain right now? Any specific evidence?

And also if you really believe this, then shouldn't you be selling puts and buying calls/leaps? (You said options was a dead strategy.) Honest question, just trying to better understand. Thanks.

 

[anthonyj]

It's certainly possible. There are certainly interested parties, as you mentioned. I would even add Apple to the list. They did try to buy them once before, right?

But what makes you so certain right now? Any specific evidence?

And also if you really believe this, then shouldn't you be selling puts and buying calls/leaps? (You said options was a dead strategy.) Honest question, just trying to better understand. Thanks.

I have some deep OTM calls that I bought last week and some on Thursday, sold some on Friday, but I will not touch anymore. Not going to jinx the stock or go hyper obsessive with it like last year. I have my 1600 shares and I’m cool with that.

It’s my belief that Elon threw the kitchen sink at Q1 and Q2 on purpose. The email about “running out of cash in 8 months” is what drove the price under $200. He created a lot of FUD this year. On purpose. He built a stronger investor base in the background, shook the weak swing traders out, especially the ones who went full margin at $250 in April.

He learned a lot since last year. He has his ducks in a row now to start the squeeze of the century. This is his last chance to pull this off. 37M shares shorted. The faster an ATH prints, the better. It simply needs to happen. He needs to put the stock in a new trading range, and put the trolls to eternal rest. He seriously needs to bankrupt them all.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I have some deep OTM calls that I bought last week and some on Thursday, sold some on Friday, but I will not touch anymore. Not going to jinx the stock or go hyper obsessive with it like last year. I have my 1600 shares and I’m cool with that.

It’s my belief that Elon threw the kitchen sink at Q1 and Q2 on purpose. The email about “running out of cash in 8 months” is what drove the price under $200. He created a lot of FUD this year. On purpose. He built a stronger investor base in the background, shook the weak swing traders out, especially the ones who went full margin at $250 in April.

He learned a lot since last year. He has his ducks in a row now to start the squeeze of the century. This is his last chance to pull this off. 37M shares shorted. The faster an ATH prints, the better. It simply needs to happen. He needs to put the stock in a new trading range, and put the trolls to eternal rest. He seriously needs to bankrupt them all.

Okay. Gotcha. Thanks.

What about your buyout speculation? What makes you think someone is trying to buy them now?

 

[anthonyj]

Okay. Gotcha. Thanks.

What about your buyout speculation? What makes you think someone is trying to buy them now?

I don’t think there will be a buyout. I think Saudis, or someone will accumulate more shares in the open market. They did buy puts and calls in January, the day before the initial drop. Perhaps they sold their puts at the bottom and held their calls?

 

[mongo]

The email about “running out of cash in 8 months” is what drove the price under $200. He created a lot of FUD this year. On purpose.

That was not what the email said. That is what the FUDsters said the email said. What the email did say was that the net capital they has just raised, while a large number, would only last 10 months at their previous quater's spend rate. At that point, they would still have the $2.2 billion or so from before the raise.

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”

Q1 was a 701 million loss. Total raise was 2.7 billion, 2.3 net or so.

 

[steve3]

If profitability returns, which I expect, yes, for sure, bar is low, it's around $300.

There is a significant change here that I want to emphasize. I've been watching and have been invested in Tesla for over 4 years, and this is a first, FIRST positive surprise when Tesla was quiet.

Perhaps something has changed, and Elon will continue to be relatively quiet and execute, regaining credibility in the process.

Also, this quarter does relieve me of demand concerns, as I was in short-term demand concern camp. They recovered quickly and beautifully.

@Zhelko Dimic I miss your views here. Totally understand why you haven’t been actively participating, but hoping you’ll be moved to weigh in with an update on your current view. The quote above is from Jul 3 when Q2 P&D numbers came out.

Are you leveraged above 100% now? In you view, are we seeing the start of a major short burn?

My position...I sat on the sidelines this ER, expecting a another subpar report but bought shares after hours Wednesday in the low 280s, to put me in at 100%. On Friday morning once 300 fell convincingly, I leveraged up to 174% using Heloc...adding some j’21 $400 calls and some more shares. It feels to me like Elon has lined up his ducks for a short burn. Gene Munster talked about how this ER demonstrates how they can realize chunks of a nearly $500m deferred revenue stash for a couple years to spruce up each ER. Gasparino reported that Tesla mgmnt told Wall Street bankers in meetings that they have the shorts where they want them... Tesla puts the brakes on short sellers

 

[Artful Dodger]

Total raise was 2.7 billion, 2.3 net

I think there was $300M in fees on that $2.7B cap raise, so $2.4B net.

 

[anthonyj]

That was not what the email said. That is what the FUDsters said the email said. What the email did say was that the net capital they has just raised, while a large number, would only last 10 months at their previous quater's spend rate. At that point, they would still have the $2.2 billion or so from before the raise.

“This is a lot of money, but actually only gives us about 10 months at the Q1 burn rate to achieve breakeven!”

Q1 was a 701 million loss. Total raise was 2.7 billion, 2.3 net or so.

I know. However, that’s not how TSLAQ FUD spinners and the media viewed it. And I think Musk knew that. He laid a bear trap

@Zhelko Dimic I miss your views here. Totally understand why you haven’t been actively participating, but hoping you’ll be moved to weigh in with an update on your current view. The quote above is from Jul 3 when Q2 P&D numbers came out.

Are you leveraged above 100% now? In you view, are we seeing the start of a major short burn?

My position...I sat on the sidelines this ER, expecting a another subpar report but bought shares after hours Wednesday in the low 280s, to put me in at 100%. On Friday morning once 300 fell convincingly, I leveraged up to 174% using Heloc...adding some j’21 $400 calls and some more shares. It feels to me like Elon has lined up his ducks for a short burn. Gene Munster talked about how this ER demonstrates how they can realize chunks of a nearly $500m deferred revenue stash for a couple years to spruce up each ER. Gasparino reported that Tesla mgmnt told Wall Street bankers in meetings that they have the shorts where they want them... Tesla puts the brakes on short sellers

I hope Zhelko was 1000% margined for this short burn. He deserves a big electric Tesla yacht

 

[mongo]

I think there was $300M in fees on that $2.7B cap raise, so $2.4B net.

Yeah, didn't both to look that part up which is why I wrote: 2.3 net or so.(Your quote of me dropped that partl

I know. However, that’s not how TSLAQ FUD spinners and the media viewed it. And I think Musk knew that. He laid a bear trap

Yeah, I said that was all spin. I'm having a hard time seeing his statement as a bear trap or purposeful FUD

He created a lot of FUD this year.

. Although, apparently bears suck at math so any usage of it may constitute a trap.

 

[Yoona]

Guys, newbie investor here... To those who were fortunate to be holding TSLA before last week, will you be placing a 'Sell Stop Limit' to preserve your capital (and occasionally updating it upwards)? I am long but not that long, and would hate to see all those unrealized gains disappear. I am a mildly successful daytrader. Thanks

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

@Zhelko Dimic I miss your views here. Totally understand why you haven’t been actively participating, but hoping you’ll be moved to weigh in with an update on your current view. The quote above is from Jul 3 when Q2 P&D numbers came out.

Are you leveraged above 100% now? In you view, are we seeing the start of a major short burn?

My position...I sat on the sidelines this ER, expecting a another subpar report but bought shares after hours Wednesday in the low 280s, to put me in at 100%. On Friday morning once 300 fell convincingly, I leveraged up to 174% using Heloc...adding some j’21 $400 calls and some more shares. It feels to me like Elon has lined up his ducks for a short burn. Gene Munster talked about how this ER demonstrates how they can realize chunks of a nearly $500m deferred revenue stash for a couple years to spruce up each ER. Gasparino reported that Tesla mgmnt told Wall Street bankers in meetings that they have the shorts where they want them... Tesla puts the brakes on short sellers

I know. However, that’s not how TSLAQ FUD spinners and the media viewed it. And I think Musk knew that. He laid a bear trap

I hope Zhelko was 1000% margined for this short burn. He deserves a big electric Tesla yacht

Hey thanks!
I was only a tiny bit leveraged, as after 5 years with Tesla and many black swans, my nerves are fried. I trade around position a bit, with intent of increasing number of shares I own, and it seems this strategy is doing well for me. Of course, picture below show best angle of the best account(!), but even so, I'm beating TSLA quite convincingly by using TSLA stock and TSLA options

BTW, earlier in the year, I've warned friends that bought TSLA due to my advice.
I've sounded 'all clear' to them after Q3 results.
I believe Tesla has achieved momentum right now, right here. Momentum that can't be stopped, and I expect narrative will soon change for the better (in the media, except for extremists), within couple quarters

 

[ggr]

Guys, newbie investor here... To those who were fortunate to be holding TSLA before last week, will you be placing a 'Sell Stop Limit' to preserve your capital (and occasionally updating it upwards)? I am long but not that long, and would hate to see all those unrealized gains disappear. I am a mildly successful daytrader. Thanks

Not me. In my experience, these things usually trigger at the wrong time, especially if the stock is (like TSLA) heavily manipulated by enemies.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Guys, newbie investor here... To those who were fortunate to be holding TSLA before last week, will you be placing a 'Sell Stop Limit' to preserve your capital (and occasionally updating it upwards)? I am long but not that long, and would hate to see all those unrealized gains disappear. I am a mildly successful daytrader. Thanks

If you're investor, no, if these are trading shares, you know more about it than I do
I don't know this for fact, but this moment in time with TSLA reminds me of how I lost position in NFLX, AMZN and FB.
After massive gains, I naively sold deep out of money calls, thinking they are safe, and these companies have run true those levels.
I waited for SP to come back, and it never did.

Maybe the question should be what will you regret more: 1. if you lose money if TSLA crashes back to $220, or 2. how will you feel if TSLA is at $1200 in a year and you sold at these levels. My point, I don't think $1200 likely, but I thought the same of NFLX, AMZN, FB, after I had 100%+ gains. Turns out, I missed on other 200-400%