trading

[defc0n]

Looks like a double top, with a possible island reversal (if it gaps down tomorrow).

But, I still think there is a greater than 50% chance we hit 350 or higher soon, as there is a gap fill around 345, and the pickup news is adding momentum. Macros are the wild card. At some point I think it will pull back for a short correction. But could be after it hits 350 or even 380.

I haven't been trading options, but added (trading) shares at 315, which I partially sold on this runup. I'll sell the rest between now and 360, and will look to add again on a correction. Keeping the trading simple and light. Holding large core position.

Agree that it now looks like it is begging to go to $350. I personally don't think there are enough positive catalysts in Tesla right now to send it above ATHs this year anyway. I don't think the truck reveal will be able to do it. If macros become super exuberant during the holidays then maybe I suppose.

I'm wary of large institutional profit taking before the end of the year in terms of macros...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Agree that it now looks like it is begging to go to $350. I personally don't think there are enough positive catalysts in Tesla right now to send it above ATHs this year anyway. I don't think the truck reveal will be able to do it. If macros become super exuberant during the holidays then maybe I suppose.

I'm wary of large institutional profit taking before the end of the year in terms of macros...

Agree. Unless we have some really incredible news, we're not going to make a beeline to ATHs from 250s. There will be some correction before that, where we drop about 50 points at least. But it does seem that ATHs is within reach fairly soon, sometime in the next six months, a year on the outside. If the pickup truck news is really good and the Q4 report as well, then maybe get ATHs. Or a slow Q1 will pause us and have to wait for Q2, Q3. Anybody's guess, really.

 

[jeewee3000]

Agree. Unless we have some really incredible news, we're not going to make a beeline to ATHs from 250s. There will be some correction before that, where we drop about 50 points at least. But it does seem that ATHs is within reach fairly soon, sometime in the next six months, a year on the outside. If the pickup truck news is really good and the Q4 report as well, then maybe get ATHs. Or a slow Q1 will pause us and have to wait for Q2, Q3. Anybody's guess, really.

Do you mean you see the stock price dropping to below $285 before EoY?

I know we've said this (too) many times, but given the current trend I'd think $300 should hold till Q4 ER. If positive we can go over $350, if negative we can dive below $300 again.

Trading-wise, I got out of all short term options gradually in the recent runup. (took profits gradually around $310, $325, $340, nice average return).

Besides my core holding (shares, not selling before $trillion market cap), I did enter some $640 JAN 2022 LEAPS and might average them down in case of a large dip. Not planning on holding 'till expiration but this is just to sleep soundly given the knowledge the stock might rally to ATH before I decide to hop in calls again.

On another note, some days I enter and exit weeklies for fun if I think the share price is "predictable" (if it ever is...), which earned me a quick buck yesterday.

Today I'm staying clear of those. Can't interpret this price action whatsoever, given the options expiring and all.

 

[Boomer19]

sold my remaining nov 315c last week. could have gotten more, but i rarely time it exactly.
the ones i sold earlier were rolled to mar 2020 300c

those are obv doing ok. but now just riding those for a bit.

a while back when speaking to tivoboy and some others on here, i pretty much thought i was smoked on those nov 315s.

tsla...crazy

 

[defc0n]

Do you mean you see the stock price dropping to below $285 before EoY

To say the current rise in TSLA has been violent is an understatement! Even for TSLA standards. With all that said, I would consider a retrace below $300 this year even healthy for what we typically see in TSLA. I would be surprised to see it go a whole lot higher than $350 in this current run up.

Many may disagree with me, but I'd probably be more surprised for it to not go below $300 again this year, haha.

 

[Boomer19]

s

To say the current rise in TSLA has been violent is an understatement! Even for TSLA standards. With all that said, I would consider a retrace below $300 this year even healthy for what we typically see in TSLA. I would be surprised to see it go a whole lot higher than $350 in this current run up.

Many may disagree with me, but I'd probably be more surprised for it to not go below $300 again this year, haha.

yes it was a big rise, but tsla has charted 80-100 swings many times over the last 5 years, it’s easy to overlook when mired in the minutea. things are clicking. but are they really much different than what we thought when it was at 179? short term somewhat, but long term, not as much.
i wouldn’t be surprised to see it trade around 295-315 at year end myself.
hoping for 335-360 instead

 

[Boomer19]

i wonder what @Zhelko Dimic @tivoboy and @bdy0627 take is on latest trends

over last 6 months, half of it was jockeying positions to further out expirations, averaging down stock and options, etc. while the other half was just plain out waiting (also hard to do) and not putting myself in the same position i put myself in 2018/early 2019.
obv it worked out well.

but, the point is that during 2018 i had too much concentration in shorter term options, like almost every month. which was unlike any prior trading i had done. i made some, lost some, but still was able to unwind and punt forward. for my taste, the lesson learned was to give yourself outs. basically, i just lost track of bigger picture and was way too involved in the minutiae, which led me to open more positions than i normally would.

the rough patch i was able to buy jan21 and jun21 at lows, and as we rose back rotated much of nov into march20.
the one mistake i didn’t make was to leave myself no cash.
but one mistake i did, was to be short a few too many puts, so while holding off in the 179-190 range to wait for 260 and covering those for a 50% gain, using the cash i had, i could have waited until now and made 90% gain (but like i alluded to earlier, i never time it perfect. 50% is better than panicking and losing $).

always leave yourself some cash.

 

[jeewee3000]

always leave yourself some cash.

Funny you should say that.

That is one of my lessons learned during 2019's TSLA trading below $300.

Many people (read the main thread for example) look at having cash on hand as "not being fully invested so missing out on gains whenever the imminent short squeeze is coming".

I see a healthy chunck of cash in my portfolio as backup in case the market goes sour. Also it helps me make short term trades after a huge swing upwards/downwards.

I try to keep 1/3 of my investment/trading money in cash. After taking profits on short term calls it can be a lot more. After taking a hit short term it can be less, but then I'll be even more cautious entering new positions.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

i wonder what @Zhelko Dimic @tivoboy and @bdy0627 take is on latest trends

over last 6 months, half of it was jockeying positions to further out expirations, averaging down stock and options, etc. while the other half was just plain out waiting (also hard to do) and not putting myself in the same position i put myself in 2018/early 2019.
obv it worked out well.

but, the point is that during 2018 i had too much concentration in shorter term options, like almost every month. which was unlike any prior trading i had done. i made some, lost some, but still was able to unwind and punt forward. for my taste, the lesson learned was to give yourself outs. basically, i just lost track of bigger picture and was way too involved in the minutiae, which led me to open more positions than i normally would.

the rough patch i was able to buy jan21 and jun21 at lows, and as we rose back rotated much of nov into march20.
the one mistake i didn’t make was to leave myself no cash.
but one mistake i did, was to be short a few too many puts, so while holding off in the 179-190 range to wait for 260 and covering those for a 50% gain, using the cash i had, i could have waited until now and made 90% gain (but like i alluded to earlier, i never time it perfect. 50% is better than panicking and losing $).

always leave yourself some cash.

Those lessons you mentioned, I learned them in 2015-2016, and I think they were more painful for me. Peak to through, I was 87% down, and it's a miracle that I've completely recovered and more... That informs my strategy so that I trade very small %, around position, and this has served me well in the last couple of years.

So, I'm conservatively positioned, no leverage, around 90% TSLA. Even-though I think we may see breaking out soon.
If not this quarter, then next couple of Q. And when we break out, I would not be surprised if we continue going to something like $500-$600 in a year. Markets like to overdo movements in either direction, and I feel TSLA narrative is changing.

If breakout happens, I may rotate some TSLA into AMZN, as I find AMZN attractively priced right now, and I see lots of upside (less than TSLA) with lower volatility and being a safer investment. I still would target some 50-75% allocation in TSLA, until we see four digit SP, or situation materially changes for worse.

 

[mongo]

Options are volatile. Took some gains. Am I weak?

GF4 announced for Berlin area.
Model 3 won the golden steering wheel and had most points of any car.

 

[Boomer19]

a

Options are volatile. Took some gains. Am I weak?

GF4 announced for Berlin area.
Model 3 won the golden steering wheel and had most points of any car.

a win is a win, even if it’s ugly.

there’s more games to play, still plenty of chances to win with style.

 

[ggr]

When I heard that Jerome was also in Berlin, I took some leftover profits from rolling some old long-term DITM calls expiring Friday, and bought some Friday 360s for $1.12. Up 71% at close.

 

[Boomer19]

When I heard that Jerome was also in Berlin, I took some leftover profits from rolling some old long-term DITM calls expiring Friday, and bought some Friday 360s for $1.12. Up 71% at close.

hope they go another 100%

 

[jeewee3000]

That informs my strategy so that I trade very small %, around position, and this has served me well in the last couple of years.

So, I'm conservatively positioned, no leverage, around 90% TSLA.

Could you elaborate on your strategy since 2015-2016 until now? Do you only trade shares, or also options. If options: leaps or more short term?

Not seeking advice, just want to hear how others try and recover from TSLA dipping hugely. I was down 90% at one point due to over-leveraging. When we'll hit $360 I should have recovered completely. I've learned lessons I'll (hopefully) never forget.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

In case we clear $355 on high volume I think we will see a run up to $370. After that ATH is close. Then clear blue sky.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

In case we clear $355 on high volume I think we will see a run up to $370. After that ATH is close. Then clear blue sky.

With yesterday's open of $355 and HOD of $356 the target of the recent flag breakout was reached.
As there are some technical resistance above the current SP I expect some SP decline short term.
This is why I took profit from the recent run-up after earnings.
I have rolled part of the calls further out to capture a potential run-up before the pickup truck reveal event on November 24th.
Without any news of financial relavance during this event I expect SP reaction will be a buy the news, sell the rumour type event.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Could you elaborate on your strategy since 2015-2016 until now? Do you only trade shares, or also options. If options: leaps or more short term?

Not seeking advice, just want to hear how others try and recover from TSLA dipping hugely. I was down 90% at one point due to over-leveraging. When we'll hit $360 I should have recovered completely. I've learned lessons I'll (hopefully) never forget.

I use options and deep in the money leaps that have negligable time-value, like $80, or $100 strike '2021.
This lets me build small leverage when I want to. In the main account I do maybe up to 10% leverage, and in the trading up to 40%.

Buying in tranches, selling in tranches. For example, if I had money for 1000 shares, I may buy up to 14 calls for $80 2021. I do leveraging gradually, i.e. last time, I bought 10% at $220, next at $200, and then $180. I sold some at $230 because I was afraid recovery will stall, and then at $320. At these prices I wouldn't leverage at all.

This strategy makes a lot less money than riskier ones I used to use, but has advantage that if I'm caught wrong footed, I can survive multiple years holding position. After all, I've been in TSLA for 5 years with no significant progress. While I believe in Tesla, I am ready for the worst with TSLA all the time...

Less stressful than other strategies. But to be clear, recovery from 87% down did require 'all or nothing' strategy in the beginning, and while I'm up 900% since then, first 400% have been in the first couple of months with the 'all or nothing'. And slow growth since then.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I stated couple of times that I think narrative for TSLA has changed.

Here is what happened when narrative changed for FB in 2013, and they proved for the first time they can move to mobile and monetize it.

Charts looks similar, no? FB proved mobile, TSLA proved demand and profits. They both gap up and continue going up... FB gap never closed

I remember this so well, as it was my first large option play and mild success (I sold too early):

 

[bdy0627]

i wonder what @Zhelko Dimic @tivoboy and @bdy0627 take is on latest trends

over last 6 months, half of it was jockeying positions to further out expirations, averaging down stock and options, etc. while the other half was just plain out waiting (also hard to do) and not putting myself in the same position i put myself in 2018/early 2019.
obv it worked out well.

but, the point is that during 2018 i had too much concentration in shorter term options, like almost every month. which was unlike any prior trading i had done. i made some, lost some, but still was able to unwind and punt forward. for my taste, the lesson learned was to give yourself outs. basically, i just lost track of bigger picture and was way too involved in the minutiae, which led me to open more positions than i normally would.

the rough patch i was able to buy jan21 and jun21 at lows, and as we rose back rotated much of nov into march20.
the one mistake i didn’t make was to leave myself no cash.
but one mistake i did, was to be short a few too many puts, so while holding off in the 179-190 range to wait for 260 and covering those for a 50% gain, using the cash i had, i could have waited until now and made 90% gain (but like i alluded to earlier, i never time it perfect. 50% is better than panicking and losing $).

always leave yourself some cash.

Hey Boomer, good to see you back. Glad to see your thread is having some traction here. Great to see some older members like Zhelko back contributing. I've been on the forum way less but still lurking some. I'm with Zhelko on TSLA in that I think there is a good chance we head to a new higher range over the next 6 months. Right now, TSLA is getting close to the upper end of range and I'm going to assume it's still a range bound stock until it's not. I have been holding mostly June $350 calls and a smaller number of Dec $320s. I've now sold out of nearly all of those and primarily in stock. My biggest issue in the past was selling too early when TSLA climbed, so I'm trying not to jump out too early. Our big decline over the first half of the year had me trigger happy with selling quickly after moderate climbs. In reality, TSLA is technically still looking strong, even at this level. However, like Zhelko, I'm not comfortable holding much leverage after this much of a climb. When we are way down, I'll actually go to 100% calls and no stock. We closed the $347 gap, which basically completed this trade for me. I'll ride it up further primarily in shares at this point with just a couple of June $350s. I think we are definitely in buy the dip mode again, which is my favorite strategy with TSLA.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I stated couple of times that I think narrative for TSLA has changed.

Here is what happened when narrative changed for FB in 2013, and they proved for the first time they can move to mobile and monetize it.

Charts looks similar, no? FB proved mobile, TSLA proved demand and profits. They both gap up and continue going up... FB gap never closed

I remember this so well, as it was my first large option play and mild success (I sold too early):

View attachment 476843

Did you guys know 8 weeks rule? This is the one I learned in 2013 (above mentioned FB episode) when I sold my $300 worth options for $3,000, and failed to keep them until they became $45,000

The 8 Week Hold Rule | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

It would appear TSLA qualifies for this rule now, like FB did in 2013. Just musings, not an advice. I will not leverage, but I will not be selling anything either...