trading

[jeewee3000]

That's the problem. The main value was supposed to succeed in the market of core truck buyers, take up market shares, and bring in large revenue and profits. The share price ought to go lower as now even the imagination of such a business is taken away.
There is hope though, as a few small changes in the design might make cybertruck appealing to core truck buyers.

This is why I disagree with your post:

Elon Musk said the following during the Q2 2019 ER CC:


Elon Musk

Yes. I think it's probably too much focused on S and X . The S and X -- they are nice, but they're not -- and it's like without them we couldn't spell sexy. So the main reason, well not the main reason, but a reason is we want to keep spelling sexy. So, that is a reason, I should say not the main reason, but a reason to keep going with the S and X.

But the story for Tesla in future is fundamentally Model 3 and Model Y and I think like my guess is like long-term sales of – long term meaning, a couple of years I think. The demand for -- sales demand for 3 is like on the order of three quarters of a million units a year, and it's probably 1.25 million per year for Model Year, so they combined is like maybe two million from those two vehicles, and then S/X is like there may be 80,000 to 100,000 a year. So it's like 4% or 5% of the volume in 3 and Y. And then you could throw like a truck in there, pickup truck and a semi, but it just gets smaller and smaller. So they are great products, but they’re -- from a volume standpoint, they're not all that important in the long-term.

The last sentence sums it up. "They" refers to the Cybertruck and the semi, and their volume is not important.

 

[mongo]

This is why I disagree with your post:

Elon Musk said the following during the Q2 2019 ER CC:


Elon Musk

Yes. I think it's probably too much focused on S and X . The S and X -- they are nice, but they're not -- and it's like without them we couldn't spell sexy. So the main reason, well not the main reason, but a reason is we want to keep spelling sexy. So, that is a reason, I should say not the main reason, but a reason to keep going with the S and X.

But the story for Tesla in future is fundamentally Model 3 and Model Y and I think like my guess is like long-term sales of – long term meaning, a couple of years I think. The demand for -- sales demand for 3 is like on the order of three quarters of a million units a year, and it's probably 1.25 million per year for Model Year, so they combined is like maybe two million from those two vehicles, and then S/X is like there may be 80,000 to 100,000 a year. So it's like 4% or 5% of the volume in 3 and Y. And then you could throw like a truck in there, pickup truck and a semi, but it just gets smaller and smaller. So they are great products, but they’re -- from a volume standpoint, they're not all that important in the long-term.

The last sentence sums it up. "They" refers to the Cybertruck and the semi, and their volume is not important.

No, 'they' is still referring to S&X. The percentage of those two models is further reduced by the pool of pickup + semi along with Y and 3.
S and X are the numerator, all vehicles are the denominator.

 

[jeewee3000]

No, 'they' is still referring to S&X. The percentage of those two models is further reduced by the pool of pickup + semi along with Y and 3.
S and X are the numerator, all vehicles are the denominator.

Well spotted. 'They' is indeed referring to S&X. However, it still stands that the above quote shows that 3 and Y is where volume is at, at least the first couple of years.

By the time semi and/or pickuptruck production (cyber- or a regular Tesla one if cybertruck has no demand, which I doubt) is ramped up 3 and Y production will be huge.

 

[Boomer19]

the market is missing the point. but that’s to be expected

the engineering and battery capability were the key takeaways

it’s what this truck represents in future capability more than just the truck itself

but, hey, we all needed a break to be able to dip into bull strategies at cheaper than current prices anyway...so i’ll take it.

 

[jeewee3000]

the market is missing the point. but that’s to be expected

the engineering and battery capability were the key takeaways

it’s what this truck represents in future capability more than just the truck itself

but, hey, we all needed a break to be able to dip into bull strategies at cheaper than current prices anyway...so i’ll take it.

Are you entering positions today or are you waiting for next week?

Options are quite pricey today given the high IV.

EDIT/Update: since options are so pricey today and I don't want to catch LEAPS in case of a falling knife, I added some shares at $330,80. To hold, not trade.

 

[bdy0627]

TSLA looking a bit stronger than I expected today. I think there will be a few more red days but I don't see this dropping below $315 if it gets that far.

 

[EVNow]

I didn't buy calls/puts before the event. I had also not bought before Q3 ER thinking the SP won't move much.

The take away is that TSLA will always move. So, better to buy calls & puts every time.

At one point (SP ~ 358), 350 puts were $2.35. That would have yielded 10x today.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Stuck with my gut feeling and capped some calls / bought puts yesterday (including some of the $350P mentioned by @EVNow). Still carrying some short calls that I had sold going into Q3ER that I'm hoping to eventually buy back (have been waiting for this exact outcome to do so).

 

[Boomer19]

Are you entering positions today or are you waiting for next week?

Options are quite pricey today given the high IV.

EDIT/Update: since options are so pricey today and I don't want to catch LEAPS in case of a falling knife, I added some shares at $330,80. To hold, not trade.

i did nothing as of yet. i’m with @bdy0627 on a move like this needs to settle for a few days. odds of snap back seem low so we can watch and perhaps gain a bit more data on direction

 

[EVNow]

Options are quite pricey today given the high IV.

Next weeks IV have dropped a lot. At 35% now for 340 calls and 325 puts. Wondering about selling some puts ...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Next weeks IV have dropped a lot. At 35% now for 340 calls and 325 puts. Wondering about selling some puts ...

I want to see the next few days' trading before selling puts. Low volume weeks have not been kind to TSLA in the past. I see that the stock is currently sitting below the mid-BB level of ~$335. Throughout this year it has tended to drift lower before bouncing back when doing so, though the stock could react differently this time due to different fundamentals.

 

[defc0n]

the market is missing the point. but that’s to be expected

the engineering and battery capability were the key takeaways

it’s what this truck represents in future capability more than just the truck itself

but, hey, we all needed a break to be able to dip into bull strategies at cheaper than current prices anyway...so i’ll take it.

the stock is dropping because there was some value placed in the possibility of the truck taking meaningful market share of that space. the market now knows that won’t be the case, and the value of the company has adjusted as a result.

the market may not realize potential battery cost improvements yet, though.

 

[EVNow]

One surprise could be if Tesla releases a high reservation count. If we go by serial numbers and if there are no gaps, it could be over 100k.

 

[EVNow]

I want to see the next few days' trading before selling puts.

I have been selling puts, esp on Friday. Usually on Monday you can buy it back when the SP runs up.

Even if it's gets executed, it's fine. I'll start selling calls. As long as we don't see prolonged low SP like in the last 8 months, it works.

 

[bdy0627]

One surprise could be if Tesla releases a high reservation count. If we go by serial numbers and if there are no gaps, it could be over 100k.

I think so too. Elon has to be pissed about the glass windows shattering becoming the pivotal moment of the reveal. He can shift the narrative this week by surprising the market with a high reservation count for the truck. I don't expect that but it's possible. Otherwise, with this short holiday week, I'm thinking we drop a bit further before climbing probably the next week. This could be a bit similar to Nov 20 2018 when we gapped down through the 10 MA to the 20 MA and then fell further, almost getting a 38.2% Fib retracement before climbing again. One major difference is the ugly top looking shooting star candle before the gap then. There were 4 red candles on that drop. It did not drop all the way to the 50 MA. The first green day was the Monday after the Thanksgiving week, and it was a big green candle. The red candles the day before and after Thanksgiving were ugly and on low volume. If this week is similar, adding leverage near close on Friday after Thanksgiving might provide a nice risk/reward, though the stock opened near the previous Friday's close in 2018 so you could have waited to add on Monday. Here's the chart from November 2018:

 

[anthonyj]

I think so too. Elon has to be pissed about the glass windows shattering becoming the pivotal moment of the reveal. He can shift the narrative this week by surprising the market with a high reservation count for the truck. I don't expect that but it's possible. Otherwise, with this short holiday week, I'm thinking we drop a bit further before climbing probably the next week. This could be a bit similar to Nov 20 2018 when we gapped down through the 10 MA to the 20 MA and then fell further, almost getting a 38.2% Fib retracement before climbing again. One major difference is the ugly top looking shooting star candle before the gap then. There were 4 red candles on that drop. It did not drop all the way to the 50 MA. The first green day was the Monday after the Thanksgiving week, and it was a big green candle. The red candles the day before and after Thanksgiving were ugly and on low volume. If this week is similar, adding leverage near close on Friday after Thanksgiving might provide a nice risk/reward, though the stock opened near the previous Friday's close in 2018 so you could have waited to add on Monday. Here's the chart from November 2018:

View attachment 480400

Last year the market was WEAK. This year the market is much, much stronger. Much stronger support now.

 

[EVNow]

One surprise could be if Tesla releases a high reservation count. If we go by serial numbers and if there are no gaps, it could be over 100k.

There we go. Ofcourse, I didn't buy calls on Friday.

140k. May be 200k by Monday morning.

 

[Cherry Wine]

There we go. Ofcourse, I didn't buy calls on Friday.

140k. May be 200k by Monday morning.

I'm not convinced the price will pop off of that given that the reservations are based on $100 refundable deposits. It's a good, solid number but I don't think it's phenomenal.

 

[EVNow]

This could be a bit similar to Nov 20 2018 when we gapped down through the 10 MA to the 20 MA and then fell further, almost getting a 38.2% Fib retracement before climbing again.

Interesting. During that time Nasdaq dropped 400 points.

I'm not convinced the price will pop off of that given that the reservations are based on $100 refundable deposits. It's a good, solid number but I don't think it's phenomenal.

Obviously not strong as Model 3 numbers. But I guess much better than Y pre-orders.​

 

[Boomer19]

There we go. Ofcourse, I didn't buy calls on Friday.

140k. May be 200k by Monday morning.

i added my 1 single vote (reservation) a few min ago. i think it will reach 200k soon. even if half never buy it, it’s still a sh!tload of orders for that vehicle in the first few days. i really didn’t think we’d see that volume this early on, even with the pricing.
if that isn’t bullish, i don’t know what it’ll take to send them running for the hills.