trading

[FrankSG]

My thesis is that this corona desaster is getting worse before it is getting better.
Taking a look at Wuhan in China or Lombard region in Italy is like a time machine.
Now exponential growth is happening in France, Spain, Germany and other regions.
Some other regions that had their first corona cases later will realize later what is acutally going on.
Sold some trading shares and short term calls from a boucne trade from the 200DMA on Friday.
I could imagine the bounce was as well a technical move because of big options expiry.
Bought some short term puts on Friday as protection for my core shares.
Will keep for this and next week
Good luck all.

Did you read KarenRei's post yesterday in the main thread?

I wonder if some EU countries like Italy might start to top in the near term, similar to what happened in China and Korea.

That would still mean that many countries are likely to get much worse in the short term, but it would also offer further reassurance that things eventually top out after a month or two.

Italy seems to have had a down day yesterday, and infections only increased by ~10%. Norway is also downtrending heavily, and Sweden and Denmark's daily increases are <10%.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Yes, Italy had a down day yesterday.
I just think one day does not make a trend.
Today Italian numbers again give hope, this is positive for Italy and their people
Starting more to look like a positive trend.
From a medical perspective this is what one would expect as they implemented really strong measures some time ago, this shoulg have some positive consequences.

For the global situation, I just think that this virus is spreading in waves around the globe and peaks occur with some temporal dispersion.
From what I can see there is still a lot of travel and business (e.g. Fremont factory was running this Monday) that will spread the virus in the US.
I guess in the US the peak is yet to come (e.g. more testing, more positive cases found) and there will be some difficult headlines at that time.

I hope I am wrong.

On an other note it appears the US is pumping a lot of money into the market to stabilize the financial markets, thoughts?!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Short term I expect a dip down to 200DMA as a double bottom during the next three weeks.
Bad Q1 production and delivery numbers and financials or negative corona virus news could be the a cause.
Longer term I get the impression people are more and more optimistic a quick recovery like in Wuhan in China.

 

[EV Promoter]

Honestly i refuse to read and post anymore in the unmoderated RoundChat, hope is ok to post here.

Eu market opened all up between 5-6% and about same US Futures,
Tesla is trading pre-market same amount about 6%.
Eur/Usd up.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Next few days will be interesting to see if we just saw a dead cat bounce (hope not).

 

[juanmedina]

I went for the Jun'22 $750 strike price @ $90 a piece. I didn't get many, but just a small leverage up. If we drop to low $400s, or even $300s, I have 2 more chunks of shares I'm willing to convert to long term options.

Frank, what do you think about options premiums right now? I think when you got that $750 call the stock was $450.

 

[FrankSG]

Frank, what do you think about options premiums right now? I think when you got that $750 call the stock was $450.

They're still really high imo.

I bought my Jun'22 $990s for $31.50 when SP was a little over $500 in January. Now it's at $500 again and they're trading at $77.51.

I bought those Jun'22 $750s in March around SP of $450 for $90. Now SP is $500, and these options are $120.

IVs are still really high imo. Whether that stays this way, or something will happen that returns IVs to a more normal level, who knows.

 

[carterm2]

Help wanted.

I want to hold my shares. If I believe that the market has a few months of "volativity". what should I do?

Ride it out, buy protective puts or short an equal number of shares? (I have difficulty with the idea of puts but I do have an options account.)

 

[mblakele]

Help wanted.

I want to hold my shares. If I believe that the market has a few months of "volativity". what should I do?

Ride it out, buy protective puts or short an equal number of shares? (I have difficulty with the idea of puts but I do have an options account.)

It sounds to me like you'd be most comfortable holding. Nothing wrong with that.

What's your investment horizon?

 

[carterm2]

It sounds to me like you'd be most comfortable holding. Nothing wrong with that.

What's your investment horizon?

Long, years not months. But would like to increase shares... one idea was to buy puts, and use profits to add at a lower price. I am expecting the market to go lower from here, next 6 months.

 

[FrankSG]

Long, years not months. But would like to increase shares... one idea was to buy puts, and use profits to add at a lower price. I am expecting the market to go lower from here, next 6 months.

Yeah, but if you're wrong, that play would reduce your number of shares.

For every person who makes a move like this and is right, there's at least another person who makes the same move and is wrong. Predicting short term stock price movements is gambling for more than 99% of people. Warren Buffet doesn't even believe he can predict stock prices 10 months out, let alone 10 weeks or days.

I'd recommend just holding onto your shares, especially now that TSLA is already <$500 and with an upcoming ER, but in the end it's up to you.

 

[FrankSG]

I opened a position in Jun'22 $1,400s today.

I crunched all the numbers again mainly with updates on how Shanghai is doing. I'm now expecting $1.75-3B in EBIT in Q4'21, for a yearly run rate of $7-12B, and I'm expecting somewhere in between $5-10B in EBIT in total for 2021. If the market is willing to give TSLA a 50x EBIT multiple, that would lead to a $350-600B market cap and a SP of $1,750-3,000.

To buy these I sold the Jun'22 $700 that I bought a few weeks back when SP was 3xx, and also took profits on 20% of my Jan'22 $500s.

If SP drops some time in Q2 to low $5xx or into $4xx, I could see myself doubling or tripling my Jun'22 $1,400s position at lower prices.

 

[juanmedina]

I opened a position in Jun'22 $1,400s today.

I crunched all the numbers again mainly with updates on how Shanghai is doing. I'm now expecting $1.75-3B in EBIT in Q4'21, for a yearly run rate of $7-12B, and I'm expecting somewhere in between $5-10B in EBIT in total for 2021. If the market is willing to give TSLA a 50x EBIT multiple, that would lead to a $350-600B market cap and a SP of $1,750-3,000.

To buy these I sold the Jun'22 $700 that I bought a few weeks back when SP was 3xx, and also took profits on 20% of my Jan'22 $500s.

If SP drops some time in Q2 to low $5xx or into $4xx, I could see myself doubling or tripling my Jun'22 $1,400s position at lower prices.

how much you paid for the $1400s Frank?

 

[FrankSG]

how much you paid for the $1400s Frank?

$62.25 for the first 2 batches, and $69.69 for the last one. AVG cost is $64.486.

 

[FrankSG]

Pre-market volume is ridiculously high so far @ ~70k shares traded by 5:15AM.

It's feeling very squeezy, similar to early Feb. I'm not very confident in my ability to predict the short term, but I'm tempted to buy a very small amount of short term calls expiring this week or next week. Like maybe 0.4% of portfolio.

 

[jeewee3000]

$62.25 for the first 2 batches, and $69.69 for the last one. AVG cost is $64.486.

Good deal (considering circumstances).

For reference, on February 27th, when the stock was around $700, I invested in a JUN22 1800c which cost me $61,02.

For only $3 more you got 1400's which are way less riskier.

About current trading, it does indeed feel squeezy. I'd like to take some money off the table soon in case of another big macro related dip, but this feels like a few months ago when we just kept climbing and climbing. The luxury problem of sudden rallies

 

[FrankSG]

~200k shares traded hands during the last 20 minutes, for a total of ~340-350k pre market volume now, which is very unusual.

I'm probably going to buy a small # of calls expiring this week in ~770 range and in ~820 range when market opens.

It seems like calls expiring next week factor in a chance of earnings happening on the 22nd, which I think is unlikely, so the premiums are too high for my liking.

Let me add a little disclaimer that last time I made a short term trade it did not work out, so probably if I decide to go through with it, SP will end up at $700 or $750 or $600, but we'll see

 

[vikings123]

I think we will see some manipulation at the open to shake out weekly call option holders and then we will see a rise in the SP into the 700s. Not advice obviously but I agree with you Frank.

 

[Boomer19]

i sold some LT stock to finance june22 600c position ~2wks ago
basically a lever up to capture the reound. wish i bought more, but thats always the case on an upswing.
key was i wanted enough $ for rainy day, which i have..so cant complain

i dont know how long this lasts, but lately i positioned all march and june of 2022 various strikes, so hoping that duration is enough to weather the roller coaster.

my leftover from "TSLA 200 era" are jan21 300c and june21 280 call, which i hope to exercise.
and stock

 

[FrankSG]

~200k shares traded hands during the last 20 minutes, for a total of ~340-350k pre market volume now, which is very unusual.

I'm probably going to buy a small # of calls expiring this week in ~770 range and in ~820 range when market opens.

It seems like calls expiring next week factor in a chance of earnings happening on the 22nd, which I think is unlikely, so the premiums are too high for my liking.

Let me add a little disclaimer that last time I made a short term trade it did not work out, so probably if I decide to go through with it, SP will end up at $700 or $750 or $600, but we'll see

I was going to buy 4 call options around $775 right at open, but premiums were already much higher than I initially anticipated.

I also wasn't quite as confident as I was when I made this post, because overall pre-market volume was high, but not as high as it was shaping up to be around 5AM.

So I only wanted to buy a very very tiny amount of calls, and I just decided it wasn't worth the effort and loss of sleep after SP rallied in first 5 minutes, and I couldn't adjust my bid fast enough to buy something.