trading

[adiggs]

I'm personally not too convinced Battery day itself will do a lot to the stock price. Autonomy day was completely ignored by the market.

I can think of a small number of announcements that might move the needle for short/medium term investors (who are the primary mover of the share price in the short term). I don't really expect any of those announcements, and thus (like you @FrankSG ) I expect Battery Day to be ignored by the market.

I DO expect Battery Day to be very good for long term investors. It's just that I expect most of the announcements to tell us the foundation of Tesla's competitive improvements and state 2-5 years from today (which means some changes this year / next year, but serious production - 2-5 years).


My guess at what will move the share price short term:
- million mile battery. NOPE. Important long term for Tesla and profitability; short term and customers don't care beans.

- pack costs are now under $100/kwh. YES. But I don't expect anything around actual pack costs due to how reticent Tesla is historically to talk about this metric.

- Tesla is going to start making their own cells. NO over Yes. This one might move the needle in the short term share price; it might also move the share price down as analysts that rely on financial metrics see big new costs for modest or no benefit. I don't agree with those spreadsheet quarterbacks, but there is a reason companies have been outsourcing - financial analysts like it. This would be anti-outsourcing. So MHO - neutral to down impact on the short term share price.

- more energy density (i.e. - more kWh in a pack that drops into today's S/X/3/Y). Mostly NO impact to share price. This will clearly improve competitiveness (even more) once this is reasonably and widely available, so the impact will be more a function of when this is in volume production. And really - how much more competitive does Tesla need to be with their vehicles over the next year?

- more power. NO. Simply because the primary vehicles that benefit will be performance variants (I WANT!). But the volumes are small enough that shorter term shareholders won't move the needle for this reason.


Net for me - battery day is more likely to be a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news event. And long term shareholders - we're gonna be drooling (but no experiencing a share price bump due to battery day; it'll take a few quarterly earnings once the technology is into production and routinely available).

 

[Boomer19]

S&P
P&D
earnings
battery day
election

between all of them we will have some moves, and double moves

 

[juanmedina]

S&P
P&D
earnings
battery day
election

between all of them we will have some moves, and double moves

the stock split could be good too

 

[Boomer19]

the stock split could be good too

i’d be surprised if it split

 

[juanmedina]

i’d be surprised if it split

that didn't aged well

 

[Boomer19]

i’d be surprised if it split

well, i’m surprised

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

well, i’m surprised

I was surprised, only on the timing.
Yesterday I bought 2x 1415c and closed the calls today for a profit.

 

[FrankSG]

I just spent 3-4 hours looking over options. I think I'll sell some Jun'22 $990s and Jan'22 $500s, and purchase some Sep'20 $2,750s and Nov'20 $1,400s.

The issue with the 2022 options is that the market seems to expect TSLA will continue rising swiftly over the next 2 years, and although I think there will be vast appreciation, I don't think it will happen to the continuous extent the market seems to be pricing in right now. It's impossible to get 2x returns (counted in # of shares) on any Jun'22 options unless the stock price goes to like $6,000+. The Jun'22 $990s I hold offer very little upside at this point.

Furthermore, I have a very hard time seeing Q2 not being at least a small profit. S&P 500 should follow suit, battery day being a potential catalyst (although could not do much like autonomy day), and likely very strong Q3 numbers as a fallback, I think it's more likely than not that the stock price will stay above $1,500-$2,000 during the next few months. Nov'20 $1,400s look likely to end op ITM, and potentially offer some good ~2x returns (counted in # of shares) if stock goes to $2,500-$3,000.

The Sep'20 $2,750s I plan to buy are quite a small bet, in case of a large S&P 500 squeeze/share shortage. I don't think it'll be as severe as Fact Checking (Twitter) thinks it could be, but nonetheless I think a squeeze to $3,000+ is possible, and I'm willing to make a small bet on it.

I'm still keeping the vast majority of my 2021 and 2022 options, because they're far lower risk. I plan to convert them to stock if stock goes up to ~$2,500 (because further upside will be approaching zero at that point). But I'll make these trades because the options I currently hold offer very little leverage, and I'm quite bullish on stock price for the next few months.

Current plan for selling:

• If earnings are good, probably take small profits next week.
• Convert most options to shares if we get to ~$2,500, give or take a few hundred.
• Hope to get lucky timing the top if there is a crazy $3,000+ squeeze

Thinking of selling 20% of my Nov'20 $1,400s today around stock price of $2,200, and buy shares with the proceeds. I didn't take any profits after earnings, because price reaction was lack luster, but although I think it'll most likely go up before it'll go down, I just want to adjust my risk a bit, because it's become a fair amount to have riding on options expiring 2.5 months from now.

EDIT: Done. Sold 20% of the Nov'20 $1,400s @ SP of $2,220, and converted to shares. Might do another 20% when we get to $2,400 or $2,500 or so.

 

[jeewee3000]

Thinking of selling 20% of my Nov'20 $1,400s today around stock price of $2,200, and buy shares with the proceeds. I didn't take any profits after earnings, because price reaction was lack luster, but although I think it'll most likely go up before it'll go down, I just want to adjust my risk a bit, because it's become a fair amount to have riding on options expiring 2.5 months from now.

EDIT: Done. Sold 20% of the Nov'20 $1,400s @ SP of $2,220, and converted to shares. Might do another 20% when we get to $2,400 or $2,500 or so.

I'm only holding one LEAP right now (JUN22 $1000c) and would like to convert to shares but I'm waiting till the split. I think I'll sell 3 or 4 out of 5 to convert and let some leftovers ride as well.

(yes yes small position)

I've been thinking of converting the entire thing to: shares/cash/higher striked LEAPS but then again this might not be the time for LEAPS. Maybe just 90% to shares and 10% to cash to buy LEAPS in case of a drop.

To all: what's your general "converting LEAPS when they had a great run"-strategy?

 

[FrankSG]

Thinking of selling 20% of my Nov'20 $1,400s today around stock price of $2,200, and buy shares with the proceeds. I didn't take any profits after earnings, because price reaction was lack luster, but although I think it'll most likely go up before it'll go down, I just want to adjust my risk a bit, because it's become a fair amount to have riding on options expiring 2.5 months from now.

EDIT: Done. Sold 20% of the Nov'20 $1,400s @ SP of $2,220, and converted to shares. Might do another 20% when we get to $2,400 or $2,500 or so.

Sold another 20% just now when stock was $492, and bought shares with the proceeds. Again, wanted to de-risk a little bit on this large options position that expires in only 2.5 months.

I think I'll sell another 20% if/when we hit $540 or so, and probably hold onto the last 40% until S&P inclusion or $600, whichever comes sooner.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Bought 5x of the 200904 460c at pre-split (5:1 on 8/31) price of $17 (orig option 200804 2325C 1x @ $85) on Friday at the close.

And closed the 460c just now @36.50 with tsla @ $487.89 +45.21

Profit ~ $9.75k

 

[juanmedina]

@FrankSG have you looked at any of the options? is there anything worth buying since we are down significantly?

 

[FrankSG]

@FrankSG have you looked at any of the options? is there anything worth buying since we are down significantly?

I haven't looked at anything yet. I'd imagine Jun'22s are still rather pricey, because they were before ER as well, and stock price is still higher than it was back then.

I was going to convert about a third of all my options to stock on Tuesday last week if pre-market price had held, but it did not. I'm still pretty highly leveraged and not jumping to leverage up at this level.

You can take a look yourself using the spreadsheet from my TSLA Investment Strategy blog post.

 

[Boomer19]

Outlook LT: obv fine
outlook ST: is anyone other than me thinking that it’s inevitable that the market is going to juke us downward with election FUD, whether warranted or not. it’s what market does.

i am thinking that it will happen. when, dunno. soon?

if so, this will obv impact tsla.
and we have factors coming up, P&D, earnings that many take a wager on.

but with the underlying stuff going on it’s not the same playing field as normal circumstances.

then again, could also melt up, taking tsla with it.

any thoughts?

 

[UncaNed]

When is the best time to roll forward LEAPs from Jan - March 2022 to January 2023's? When option prices are higher or when they are lower? Or do I time it based on volatility?

Short of trying to sell high and buy low like picking pennies in front of the proverbial steamroller, I mean.

 

[FrankSG]

I just spent 3-4 hours looking over options. I think I'll sell some Jun'22 $990s and Jan'22 $500s, and purchase some Sep'20 $2,750s and Nov'20 $1,400s.

The issue with the 2022 options is that the market seems to expect TSLA will continue rising swiftly over the next 2 years, and although I think there will be vast appreciation, I don't think it will happen to the continuous extent the market seems to be pricing in right now. It's impossible to get 2x returns (counted in # of shares) on any Jun'22 options unless the stock price goes to like $6,000+. The Jun'22 $990s I hold offer very little upside at this point.

Furthermore, I have a very hard time seeing Q2 not being at least a small profit. S&P 500 should follow suit, battery day being a potential catalyst (although could not do much like autonomy day), and likely very strong Q3 numbers as a fallback, I think it's more likely than not that the stock price will stay above $1,500-$2,000 during the next few months. Nov'20 $1,400s look likely to end op ITM, and potentially offer some good ~2x returns (counted in # of shares) if stock goes to $2,500-$3,000.

The Sep'20 $2,750s I plan to buy are quite a small bet, in case of a large S&P 500 squeeze/share shortage. I don't think it'll be as severe as Fact Checking (Twitter) thinks it could be, but nonetheless I think a squeeze to $3,000+ is possible, and I'm willing to make a small bet on it.

I'm still keeping the vast majority of my 2021 and 2022 options, because they're far lower risk. I plan to convert them to stock if stock goes up to ~$2,500 (because further upside will be approaching zero at that point). But I'll make these trades because the options I currently hold offer very little leverage, and I'm quite bullish on stock price for the next few months.

Current plan for selling:

• If earnings are good, probably take small profits next week.
• Convert most options to shares if we get to ~$2,500, give or take a few hundred.
• Hope to get lucky timing the top if there is a crazy $3,000+ squeeze

I converted my remaining short term options (Nov $280s that I bought before Q2 ER) to shares this week, after already converting some last month when the stock price was $2,250 and $2,500.

A big part of why I bought them and held onto them was the S&P inclusion, which I believed (and still believe) to be a large catalyst. Although I'd still be shocked if it does not happen at all, the timing seems less certain. If there's no S&P 500 inclusion in the next two months, honestly the stock could go anywhere imo. Upwards due to buying off of Q3 ER and delta hedging mechanisms is definitely possible, but getting dragged down by macros also seems entirely possible.

Bottom line, the stock can't rally 50-100% off of every strong ER, I feel like it's a bit of a gamble what will happen in the next 1-2 months, and I didn't want to bet on it.

I now own more TSLA shares than I ever have, but the majority of my portfolio is still in DITM options expiring Jun'21 and Jun'22. I think I'll convert all of those to shares at a SP of $500 to $600 or so. I'm undecided whether I want to own any new options after that, or simply want to go 100% stock for a while. Option premiums are pretty absurd right now, especially the Jan'23s.

 

[juanmedina]

Is anyone considering or had entered new option positions? I am tempted with the FSD beta release and possible S&P inclusion. What dates and strikes are you guys considering? IV is on the lower side.

 

[UncaNed]

Is anyone considering or had entered new option positions? I am tempted with the FSD beta release and possible S&P inclusion. What dates and strikes are you guys considering? IV is on the lower side.

For what it's worth I always just buy the latest-expiring LEAPS with a reasonably/relatively high open interest as far out of the money as possible- Jan 2023, $900 strikes, perhaps. I think maybe I'm buying the most total Delta for my dollar that way, I never mess with hedging, but instead consider the far away expiration date as a sort of a safety net, never planning to hold my LEAPS to within a few months of expiration. And then I bide my time.

It looks to me like those who have been buying short term calls in hopes of S&P, high quarterly earnings or whatever are coming away disappointed, but I spend so much time basking in the echo chamber of the investor's forum that I'm a strong bull who thinks perhaps the steepest, longest stock price increases are usually unexpected. Nobody's guessed our S&P 500 inclusion correctly yet, so I'm just going to go with "sometime in the future" and I bet I'll be correct, and that my LEAPS will ultimately be as safe a bet as anyone's, and my strategy more likely successful than HODLING shares..

Probably not the answer you were hoping for, but nobody ever hardly comes to visit us here on this little thread of TSLA enthusiasts, so I thought I'd at least keep you company.

Not an advice.

 

[euro2012]

With the malaise in the markets today, those Jan 2023 are on sale again compared to a few days ago. Might be a good time to load up on them. You have to wonder how long this sale will last given everything that can happen over the next few weeks. I'm shopping for a $450 strike price for around 150.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Is anyone considering or had entered new option positions? I am tempted with the FSD beta release and possible S&P inclusion. What dates and strikes are you guys considering? IV is on the lower side.

Currently tempted about doing a small trade around a Biden win, later Biden and Democrats hugs for Tesla and thus some more tailwind for a potential S&P500 inclusion. Considering mid term calls with a $400 strike price.