Well, I did add a few calls - with the IV as low as it was on Friday with the sale on SP, it was too tempting. I opted for 15Jan'21 $350 and 19Mar'21 350 - mainly with intent to play in case of potential S&P500 inclusion and full year 2020 ER.
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- Thread starter Boomer19
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Well, I did add a few calls - with the IV as low as it was on Friday with the sale on SP, it was too tempting. I opted for 15Jan'21 $350 and 19Mar'21 350 - mainly with intent to play in case of potential S&P500 inclusion and full year 2020 ER.
Recently enough that I doubt my opinion has changed since then. Although I hold more stock than I ever have, percentage-wise I still have a very large portion of my portfolio in DITM Jun'21 and Jun'22 calls.
I don't think any long-term options are priced attractively enough to leverage up right now. I'm still looking to deleverage completely at these prices and go around 100% stock, but with S&P inclusion still ahead of us at some point, I'm looking for a SP of at least $500, likely closer to $600 before I want to do so. Although I may deleverage Jun'21s sooner as time until expiration decreases, because they start to become more and more risky.
Looking at the Jan'23s, if the stock price is $800 upon expiration, you only break even on a $450 call compared to holding stock. Stock would nearly double, and those Jan'23 $450s would also nearly double. If stock is $1,000 upon expiration, you only net an additional 20% or so compared to holding stock.
These are horrendous returns considering the extra risk you take on, and considering the opportunity cost. Not only is there a possibility that the stock price doesn't rise that much in the next 2 years, even if it does, holding options instead of stocks means you no longer have the ability to leverage up during large crashes. If the market crashes and TSLA is somehow trading at $200 in March, if you hold stock there are likely good option deals you'll be able to take advantage of, if you already hold Jan'23s you won't have that opportunity.
My plan is to deleverage completely and go 100% stock, ideally at a stock price of ~$600, in the next few months (hopefully off of S&P or Q4 ER). Then after S&P inclusion has happened, I might look into selling some covered calls for the first time ever on a small % of my position. TSLA obviously can't go up 10x every 12 months, and imo the only large catalysts that could boost the stock 50-100%+ are:
- S&P Inclusion
- Market waking up to FSD/Robotaxi potential, although I'd guess this will be more gradual.
- Huge ramping of production over the next few years from 500k to 2M+, but this will almost certainly be a more gradual thing, and happen over the course of multiple quarters.
i’m pretty much same boat as you, but have mostly converted to stock already.
i too had june21 DITM, bit sold thise for other pursuits,
i did exercise some june22 DITM to advance forward the LT tax threshold.
kinda wanted to keep them as shares in long run anyway, but i’ll have wiggle room a year earlier should something come up and i need to liquidate, while retaining ~ 15% of $
jeewee3000
Active Member
This could have been written by me:
- I was in some stock and hugely leveraged on LEAPS when the stock was around $300 pre-split;
- I converted LEAPS to shares/cash gradually in the rise from $300 to $2000;
- with some of that cash I got into some lotto-LEAPS (sep22 $1000 post-split) on recent dips below $400 to catch a mid-term (one year) sudden rise due to things like:
1) S&P500 inclusion
(I'm pessimistic on the odds of this happening before 2022 to be honest. Either they would have added already or they will wait 12 to 18 months after Q2 2020 results. But IF it happens I agree the stock could rise +30% easily)
2) FSD miracles
(for example California allows driverless Tesla-FSD by end of 2021. I'm pessimistic that we'd see a sudden SP jump before this, since we will need the Dojo computer up and running before I see FSD fully happening. And Dojo V1.0 was guesstimated by Elon to be ready by August 2021. But just like S&P inclusion, SP would soar IF any of this turns up on radar of the mainstream media as a realistic soonish outcome)
3) Announcement of new factories/markets (the rumoured India factories for example, or the possbile third US based Tesla factory for Semi (see Q3 2020 update letter)
...
If the stock would reach $500-$600 within six months from now, I'd probably convert my lotto-LEAPS to shares and some spare dry powder in case of a market crash. The reasons above are possible reasons for such a rise.
OTOH, if the stock remains flat from here on out for the next year, I'll probably roll my current LEAPS far out.
Sometimes I ask myself: why keep those hugely OTM LEAPS? They're too risky compared to stock. My main reasoning is that:
- I bought them purely with a (small part of) my gains from earlier;
- they are one of the safer ways to leverage up to earn life-changing profits if TSLA would spike in case of some random positive event.
When I'm fully in stock and have no LEAPS whatsoever I feel anxious I'm about to miss out on huge gains IF the stock would break out. Maybe that's an unhealthy approach to LEAPS but my lotto-LEAPS only make up a very small %age of my portfolio. If they end up worthless I'll still be way up by having invested in Tesla.
good price to buy as first time Tesla investor?
Hello all. First time poster on the investor forum but Tesla car owner. I want to get into investing Tesla, and I am betting that stock will jump again in price significantly when s&p500 reconsider to include Tesla and release of cybertruck. so I want to buy into some position this year. What would be a good price to buy in for first time Tesla investor this year?
Hello all. First time poster on the investor forum but Tesla car owner. I want to get into investing Tesla, and I am betting that stock will jump again in price significantly when s&p500 reconsider to include Tesla and release of cybertruck. so I want to buy into some position this year. What would be a good price to buy in for first time Tesla investor this year?
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
If you're willing to hold onto your investment for years, and able to sit on your hands through swings of volatility, the earlier you can start a position the better.
I don't think anyone can accurately predict stock movement in the short term; if you want, you can try and space out your purchases, waiting for small dips to try and minimize your entry point. But ultimately time in the market beats timing the market.
yeah. that is my plan. buy at small dips this month for tesla stock and hold it until sp500 inclusion or cybertruck release. Just wondering what would good a good DIP for tesla recently?
16.34-223.73yeah. that is my plan. buy at small dips this month for tesla stock and hold it until sp500 inclusion or cybertruck release. Just wondering what would good a good DIP for tesla recently?
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Added to my position during premarket (already green).
IMO this tech sell of for all the stay at home stocks for Tesla is overblown.
I could imagine we see some upside during the next days based on Biden, money flowing to green stocks, vaccine, S&P500 and so on.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Added again below $400.
Calls are a little more than six months out.
Last edited:
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
My position likes this news about S6P500 inclusion.
Congrats all for achieving this important milestone.
Congrats Tesla Team!
Started positions in 24 Dec call options at $500 and $600 strikes.
I wasn't the only one with that idea right at open. Had to compete with many others it felt like.
Currently the price is on the high side, but I'll likely buy more if the options market cools down a bit.
I wasn't the only one with that idea right at open. Had to compete with many others it felt like.
Currently the price is on the high side, but I'll likely buy more if the options market cools down a bit.
how much were you able to get them for? non of my orders went through
. I was trying to get $560s
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I started Jan 500s and 700s. I like the late December options better for these, but I'm also hoping for a good sale opportunity right after the first of the year so taxes will be on the 2021 return instead of the 2020. And the time value won't be melting away so fast in early January.
My 'worry' with these is that I expect a big run up into the index buying, and then a big drop back into the current neighborhood (maybe 500?) afterwards as hot money front runs that index buying, and then leaves for greener pastures.
Also started 12/4 500s (looking to capture short and fast reaction) along with 12/18 600s.
Part of my thinking here is that I'm trying to imagine a red / down day of any substance in the next few weeks, and it's not easy. It's easy though, to imagine a series of 10% green days and I would rather be on that train than in front of it. (And of course - I can be badly wrong about that).
My 'worry' with these is that I expect a big run up into the index buying, and then a big drop back into the current neighborhood (maybe 500?) afterwards as hot money front runs that index buying, and then leaves for greener pastures.
Also started 12/4 500s (looking to capture short and fast reaction) along with 12/18 600s.
Part of my thinking here is that I'm trying to imagine a red / down day of any substance in the next few weeks, and it's not easy. It's easy though, to imagine a series of 10% green days and I would rather be on that train than in front of it. (And of course - I can be badly wrong about that).
how much were you able to get them for? non of my orders went through
I got 2 single fills @ $5.3 for the $600s, but paid a lot more for the remainder. Avg for $600s ended up being $7.428, avg for $500s was $25.17.
I probably FOMO'ed a little, but I just wanted some sort of position in case it ran up straight away. I wanted to buy more, but not at those prices. Hopefully later this week or next week I can scoop up more at a better price. I'd love some $600s around $5 or less, and some $500s at <$15. Not sure that they'll go that low though, but we will see.
The 500s actually traded at a low of 16$ today so I guess you might be able snag some at 15$ or lower this week. I got a few at an avg price of 18.20.
I expect IV to gradually increase from now until the inclusion date. This is mostly based on what happened to IV when the stock
split for announced. See below.
After the stock split announcement there was heavy buying for three weeks straight though. In this case, most of the buying will likely take place closer to the actual inclusion.
Furthermore, these options are all time-value right now, which will decay quite rapidly. If stock price and IV stay flat, these options will lose nearly half their value by the end of the month.
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