TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 16 minutes ago: Tesla (TSLA) stock should surge on record deliveries this quarter, says top Wall Street analyst

 

[Causalien]

FFS MODS. what purpose or value do these posters bring to the community here. I’m out. Good luck to everybody.

The mods are not yours to command mate. Lighten up a bit it's after trading hours.

Wouldn't it be more effective to give to an appropriate charity?

I once met an organic farming researcher running a gov program while travelling. She was all giddy about getting gov subsidies and donations from charities whilst advancing the sustainable society.

Then we discussed the business aspect of the marketplace since I worked for my uncle who runs a semi organic farm for a year. Being a relative, I was privy to the financials.

I steered the debate towards, how do we scale this to feed 3 billion ppl? As organic is still just rich people's plaything. Thank god she realizes that it'll only be commercially feasible if we can feed the billions in India this way. Most ppl's reaction at this point would be: "Why are you bringing India into the discussion?"

The main conclusion, after much cost analysis, is that we need to revolutionalize distribution first.

So no, donating to charities will just mean the problem gets patched but fester until necrosis sets in.

 

[jelloslug]

It seems to be working.


There is so much competition coming for that market, I doubt any of them will make a profit. They had to move the much harder upper mid range market. They will soon have to move to the mid/low range market.

Tesla was already profitable with S and X line and without the pressure from the Model 3, no other manufacturers would be that interested in trying to compete. Just look at the offerings from the German companies. All of their "Tesla killers" have been delayed countless times as they hoped that the current EV "fad" would blow over. If the 3 did not exist, Tesla would have the cash in hand to slowly evolve the S and X, just the same way the premium Euro manufacturers do with their high end products and keep them relevant in their respective markets for some time to come. The 3 changed all of that though.

 

[defc0n]

Electrek - 16 minutes ago: Tesla (TSLA) stock should surge on record deliveries this quarter, says top Wall Street analyst

At sub-300, I'm much less bearish about Q2 earnings and don't feel it's worth selling ahead of it like I've been claiming in the past. Still predicting a small run-up leading into earnings this week, though. ~ 310 is what I consider "fair value" in the current market for TSLA when both FUD and hype are at "normal" levels. How much hype will rise as Model 3 deliveries & demand continue to increase and TSLA posts positive cash flow is anyone's guess.

Really need news on catalysts like Tesla Energy or Model Y to propel the stock to ludicrous levels. China factory news was a complete dud without financing. Strong M3 production news could bring it back to 350 in no time, though.

 

[LordAstinus]

Electrek - 16 minutes ago: Tesla (TSLA) stock should surge on record deliveries this quarter, says top Wall Street analyst

"Our supply chain checks in Taiwan and Korea indicate that Tesla is currently procuring Model 3 parts at a rate of over 6,000 per week (these parts include: temperature management solutions, wiring harnesses, brake cams, gears, and axles). "

Do you know how long does it take from procuring them in Taiwan/Korea to be able to use them in Fremont? It doesn't clarify for how long they have been doing it. I'm trying to figure out how close they are to 6K/wk. 2 weeks? 1 month?...

 

[kbM3]

This is where I have a little difficulty. I don't regard my self as "against" Tesla. I think Tesla is over-valued, so I am short. Once it falls to a level which I regard as under-valued, I will go long. So am I for and against simultaneously?

Sorry, that was intended as a reply to Krugerrand - not sure why it didn't show as such.

Tesla is undervalued because, if nothing else, the massive short interest and the incredibly negative press.

The short Thesis has very few legs left. 1) Competition. 2) Cash Flow/Cash on Hand. 3) Demand Fears

Wonderful post! To put on my "thinking like a short" cap for a moment, one other (obviously bad) argument some shorts make, is that operating expenses will scale with units sold, so Tesla will never make a net profit.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Yes, that’s exactly what I said????? Why’d you feel to disagree and reply is beyond me.

My apologies. I undid the disagree.

I thought you were saying the opposite. Not sure if the confusion was in my reading, your writing, or both.

 

[bhtooefr]

Random thought: I wonder if Model 3 sales increasing is actually acting to drag down the share price directly.

There's probably a significant number of Model 3 reservation holders that own TSLA stock, and are selling it to pay for a Model 3...

Institutions and shorts are almost certainly far more of an impact, but this is probably contributing?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

There's water on Mars. Need to get this production ramp done quick before Elon leaves!

 

[mongo]

Random thought: I wonder if Model 3 sales increasing is actually acting to drag down the share price directly.

There's probably a significant number of Model 3 reservation holders that own TSLA stock, and are selling it to pay for a Model 3...

If I were buying a 3, I would finance as much as possible and keep the rest in TSLA.

3 millionish shares traded and we are up ~$3

 

[ggies07]

Really need news on catalysts like Tesla Energy or Model Y

No investor should be thinking about the Y or the truck until they can start producing in volume what they promised 2 years ago. Plus, the Y is supposed to be built off of the 3 and they are just NOW getting the ramp going.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Yep the old misdirect. You state it is tiny investors making the SP move...get called out...and there it is misdirect.

I think what I said is that a substantial proportion of retail investing for emotional reasons makes the stock interesting and volatile. That wasn't intended to be pejorative or controversial. Did you take it as such? I am not sure why that would be offensive.

 

[mongo]

No investor should be thinking about the Y or the truck until they can start producing in volume what they promised 2 years ago.

Disagree, I want the truck (AFAIK), and I'm an investor.
However, I'm not relying on it for short term SP movement...

 

[Unpilot]

I think what I said is that a substantial proportion of retail investing for emotional reasons makes the stock interesting and volatile. That wasn't intended to be pejorative or controversial. Did you take it as such? I am not sure why that would be offensive.

Let me play your game.
What makes a stock volatile?

 

[mongo]

Let me play your game.
What makes a stock volatile?

If I might put words in @CuriousSunbird 's mouth. Tesla has both investors and fans (with overlap). The fans make it interesting due to their support when the technicals indicate otherwise. No bearing on large funds/ groups working for/against Tesla.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Random thought: I wonder if Model 3 sales increasing is actually acting to drag down the share price directly.

There's probably a significant number of Model 3 reservation holders that own TSLA stock, and are selling it to pay for a Model 3...

Institutions and shorts are almost certainly far more of an impact, but this is probably contributing?

50,000 sales at $50,000 would be $2.5 bn.

10 million shares traded daily at $300 is $3 bn.

 

[jelloslug]

Great post! The missing piece for most bears is the fact they CAN'T produce a better EV. All their talent is in refining the current ICE technology. Not in a completely new system of propulsion. As has been stated here many times it take gut's to make that radical a change. It takes a ton of cash if your a big Auto company. It also means retraining your entire dealer network. All in all the odds are stacked against the legacy auto company's

Just look at the reservations system for the Porsche Taycan: it starts out with a very Tesla-esque, web based form to sign up for a reservation. It quickly changes pace though into just a form that is sent to your local Porsche dealer. That dealer may or may not be accepting reservations at all, or they may have their allocation already reserved. They may want $1000, they may want $5000 and no matter what the deposit is, there is no actual guarantee from Porsche that you will get a car. Less scrupulous dealers may accept your reservation but if the market is hot, raise the price with a "market adjustment" or just sell it to the highest bidder and give you a refund. And the worst part of this is, there is not a single headline about how Porsche is taking reservation money for a car that may come out in two years that no one knows the exact specs on or even what the finished product will look like.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

If I might put words in @CuriousSunbird 's mouth. Tesla has both investors and fans (with overlap). The fans make it interesting due to their support when the technicals indicate otherwise. No bearing on large funds/ groups working for/against Tesla.

Couldn't have put it better myself. Except I would have added also an unusual number of shorts who have fallen in love with their own positions and add volatility in the other direction.

 

[Boomer19]

"Our supply chain checks in Taiwan and Korea indicate that Tesla is currently procuring Model 3 parts at a rate of over 6,000 per week (these parts include: temperature management solutions, wiring harnesses, brake cams, gears, and axles). "

Do you know how long does it take from procuring them in Taiwan/Korea to be able to use them in Fremont? It doesn't clarify for how long they have been doing it. I'm trying to figure out how close they are to 6K/wk. 2 weeks? 1 month?...

@RobStark estimated a month in the general thread

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[dmckinstry]

It’s rocketing

Quit trying to jinx it.