TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[W84M3]

I am a small long Tesla stock holder.
I wonder, if there is efficient way to prevent my broker to loan my shares to short sellers?
Thanks!

Yes, putting in a sell order at a very high SP (e.g. $800)

 

[WarpedOne]

Yes, putting in a sell order at a very high SP (e.g. $8000)

You've missed a zero, i fixed it for you ...

 

[HG Wells]

I am a little surprised NVDA didn’t have any selling pressure today due to the new Tesla chip announcement.

BUT I dont think Tesla will sell their chip to any one else. So other than losing Tesla as a customer it doesn't hurt NVDA.

YET

 

[shlokavica22]

I dont think Tesla will sell their chip to any one else.

Why not?

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Why not?

I think the potential revenue from a Tesla ride share program would be too lucrative to allow them to open that up to competitors but we'll see.

Dan

 

[avoigt]

Sorry if this has been discussed before, but it struck me reading about Einhorn’s recent trading losses that his report was at quarter end, and it would have been so much worse for him if there hadn’t been a big SP drop just before the end of the quarter. And looking back at the charts, there’s been a big drop just before other quarter ends. Coincidence?

To answer you question: No, its not an coincidence but manipulation. It happens with tons of stock every quarter end. Don't forget how the Fund Managers are paid.

If they throw good money after bad money by making their bonuses its an easy decision for them.

 

[hobbes]

It’s interesting that in perusing news headlines throughout the day it seems as if Elon’s apology generated more headlines than production, cash and guidance did!

Also noteworthy that this morning CNBC had two bulls on discussing Tesla’s results. I found it shocking they did not have a bear in there because the network has been so relentlessly negative of late. Maybe sentiment is changing, or CNBC thinks they have gone far enough with the bear story. Good news anyway as they do have influence.

Bullish, but still a bit of criticism, liked their takes:

 

[avoigt]

While the delivery is somewhat obnoxious at times I think this guy nails it. The first half of the video is numbers but the important stuff is in the second half I think. The mindset of the shorts.

Dan

Emotions are literally standing in the way of bulls and bears all the time. Thats what makes investing hard. Emotions are vastly underestimated as a determining factor of you investing into A or B or not. Facts are overstated.

When I decided years ago to invest into Tesla one of my reasoning was that Tesla is a "feel good" stock and people who have no clue about balance sheets, automotive and electrification or battery technology will invest because it feels good to do something people say is good and will help the environment. Thats a new set of investors other stocks don't have access to.

Nice Video but to clarify, although a great day for us longs yesterday it was not a short squeeze. That is still to come...

What we have seen yesterday is young bulls buying, old bulls adding and some shorts covering.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Emotions are literally standing in the way of bulls and bears all the time. Thats what makes investing hard. Emotions are vastly underestimated as a determining factor of you investing into A or B or not. Facts are overstated.

When I decided years ago to invest into Tesla one of my reasoning was that Tesla is a "feel good" stock and people who have no clue about balance sheets, automotive and electrification or battery technology will invest because it feels good to do something people say is good and will help the environment. Thats a new set of investors other stocks don't have access to.

Nice Video but to clarify, although a great day for us longs yesterday it was not a short squeeze. That is still to come...

What we have seen yesterday is young bulls buying, old bulls adding and some shorts covering.

Agree on the short squeeze comment. I think we still are going to see a lot of fight from the big shorts. The FUD will run thick and heavy for a while.

Dan

 

[Tslynk67]

So, to me, looks like this afternoon's (east coast time) price action was short covering. I'm told that margins calls go out midday at noon (in addition to overnight or first thing in the morning). If you look at the attached price/volume chart for Tesla today, there was massive volume at the open, then it calmed down quite a bit. But then, right at 9:00 am (this is a west coast screen cap, noon eastern), volume spiked and the price went straight up. Looks to me like short covering on margin calls....

View attachment 322537

I'm not so sure - look at Ihor's graph from yesterday, not much change, especially given the trading volumes yesterday.

As I Tweeted last night, this graphic should terrify anyone with a short position - such a massive upward movement, without any corresponding drop in short shares.

And look when most of them have come on-board, it's nearly all sub-$350, which implies as of now, most are under water.

No doubt the bigger-players with diverse portfolios can hold their position for ever, if they wish, but smaller and retail holders are staring into the abyss right now.

My intuitive guess is that $370 will open the exit-gates. Not beyond the realms of probability that this could happen today... Pre-market is slightly down, but not a lot of volume. Macros could have a bearing, tech was a bit over-heated yesterday, might pull-back a bit.

 

[Boomer19]

I am a small long Tesla stock holder.
I wonder, if there is efficient way to prevent my broker to loan my shares to short sellers?
Thanks!

if your shares are bought with cash they can’t be loaned unless you enter into an agreement to loan them, assuming your broker has such an option (fidelity ib etc do this)
anything bought using broker margin can be loaned by your broker

 

[Tslynk67]

I don't follow much on Twitter — mostly just Elon & CleanTechnica But I'm curious what the shorts/critics are like there now. Any summary reports on that?

Almost devoid of FUD yesterday and packed with rejoicing bulls. A few of the bears tried playing the "losing money on every car sold", "750million loss is seen as a win as Tesla" card, but when you just point-out to them that they have absolutely no clue on Tesla's business model or basic finance, then they don't come back.

 

[shlokavica22]

I think the potential revenue from a Tesla ride share program would be too lucrative to allow them to open that up to competitors but we'll see.

"Giving away" the computing unit is only one side of the coin. It doesn't mean they don't still keep the lead with relation to the software running on it.
It is also interesting if it has competitive use in NN related activities other than SD.

 

[22522]

I think the potential revenue from a Tesla ride share program would be too lucrative to allow them to open that up to competitors but we'll see.

Dan

I agree with Dan.


Tesla has a good understanding of where margin comes from. Being a B to B supplier is not on their roadmap. Uber wanted to buy a fleet of Teslas...

 

[Tslynk67]

Hey did anybody notice the question from Zachary Shahan of CleanTechnica late in the call that included "the daily production, we've been seeing a rise and fall with the daily production of the Model 3..."? I was somewhat surprised that he wasn't asked where he got his information, since daily production isn't "officially" published. The only info I see is the tweets from that yinyang Skabooshka (perhaps twats are better used here) and I have no idea how reliable those are.

Just thought it was curious so I put it out to see if anybody knows more about it...

Duh, like maybe you Zach! Guess I should open my eyes!

That's a point, did anyone add up the Babooshka daily estimates to see if they tally with the official figures?

 

[Tslynk67]

TSLA shares gained 16% today, my total TSLA portfolio 27%.

Does anyone like to share their TSLA portfolio gain today as well?

Would be fun to find out who’s extremely leveraged, and how that played out today.

I have 520 common shares, all bought with my own cash, zero leverage. So yesterday, on paper, I'm up $25k. Now if I were a trader then I'd probably want that profit taken out, but I'm not, I'm long and am looking for a much greater return.

Edit: forgot to add that Tesla is 100% of my portfolio, well not quite, I have 3 shares in FitBit and 20 in DRYSHIPS (that was a $200 lottery than didn't come off). I believe.

 

[shlokavica22]

That's a point, did anyone add up the Babooshka daily estimates to see if they tally with the official figures?

He is quite close, but hugely irrelevant from now on.

 

[Matias]

This is not exactly a land grab situation. Tesla is not confronted by competitors trying to capture EV market share before Tesla can get to it.

Plus as mentioned earlier, there aren’t much switching costs or vendor lock-in with cars.

 

[WarpedOne]

"Giving away" the computing unit is only one side of the coin. It doesn't mean they don't still keep the lead with relation to the software running on it.
It is also interesting if it has competitive use in NN related activities other than SD.

Remember elon's tweet regarding Kitt?
Tesla chip is more than just HWAP3, it is the basis for HWAI. They would be stupid not to go this way and they are not stupid.

 

[jhm]

I'm not so sure - look at Ihor's graph from yesterday, not much change, especially given the trading volumes yesterday.

As I Tweeted last night, this graphic should terrify anyone with a short position - such a massive upward movement, without any corresponding drop in short shares.

And look when most of them have come on-board, it's nearly all sub-$350, which implies as of now, most are under water.

No doubt the bigger-players with diverse portfolios can hold their position for ever, if they wish, but smaller and retail holders are staring into the abyss right now.

My intuitive guess is that $370 will open the exit-gates. Not beyond the realms of probability that this could happen today... Pre-market is slightly down, but not a lot of volume. Macros could have a bearing, tech was a bit over-heated yesterday, might pull-back a bit.

View attachment 322639

Well, let's camp out at $370. Shorts and longs together, we can sing kumbaya, roast marshmallows, and watch short fortunes go up in smoke.