TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[dc_h]

Can we get some discussion going on when tsla could be added to the s&p and the impact? If they need a year of profit, on average, end of q1 seems the earliest this could happen. I doubt 1.5 billion in q4 profit to counter q1/q2 losses. When the add happens, it’s my understanding that index funds are 18% of the market, or about 10 billion in tsla at current value. That should have a positive impact anytime, but if short interest is still at 10-12 billion, shouldn’t this have a more interesting impact?

Should we be more supportive of bears? Is it time to feed the bears?

 

[mutle]

I came across this weird video while browsing $TSLA on Twitter:

five00pagesaday

Gives some insight into the insane minds of the shorts and why a lot of them won't start covering until it rises much further and instead double down.

 

[Tslynk67]

I came across this weird video while browsing $TSLA on Twitter:

five00pagesaday

Gives some insight into the insane minds of the shorts and why a lot of them won't start covering until it rises much further and instead double down.

Jeeze, 18 minutes - is it worth it??

And should you really be recording yourself like that while driving??

 

[mutle]

I only watched a few minutes so far, don't think I can make it through the entire video. He definitely seems to have a good grasp on what bulls think.

 

[mongo]

Can we get some discussion going on when tsla could be added to the s&p and the impact? If they need a year of profit, on average, end of q1 seems the earliest this could happen. I doubt 1.5 billion in q4 profit to counter q1/q2 losses. When the add happens, it’s my understanding that index funds are 18% of the market, or about 10 billion in tsla at current value. That should have a positive impact anytime, but if short interest is still at 10-12 billion, shouldn’t this have a more interesting impact?

Should we be more supportive of bears? Is it time to feed the bears?

S&P can add it when they want... it should be positive the last quarter, and should be positive over the sum of the last 4 quarters, but those are not hard requirements.
I'm not seeing any timing criteria for changes to the 500 index though...

https://us.spindices.com/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-us-indices.pdf

S&P Composite 1500. The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter.

S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600
Index Universe. The index universe consists of all securities that meet the eligibility criteria for these indices as detailed in Eligibility Criteria.
Constituent Selection. Constituent selection is at the discretion of the Index Committee and is based on the eligibility criteria. The indices have a fixed constituent company count of 500, 400, and 600, respectively. Sector balance, as measured by a comparison of each GICS sector’s weight in an index with its weight in the S&P Total Market Index, in the relevant market capitalization range, is also considered in the selection of companies for the indices.
Weighting. Each index is weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization.

 

[trentbridge]

- Q2 results will be bad (we all know that). Zacks consensus estimate is -2.70 EPS while luvb2b's conservative model shows -3.86, so more likely than not it'll likely be an earnings miss, and probably a big one.

I came across this weird video while browsing $TSLA on Twitter:

five00pagesaday

Gives some insight into the insane minds of the shorts and why a lot of them won't start covering until it rises much further and instead double down.

This may be heresy on my part - but bears fixate on the quarterly financials which is what happened..and never focus on what is happening and what is about to happen. A company isn't a quarterly report - it's an entity that has a viable business model or it doesn't. For example, Tesla was constrained in Q2 by an urgent need to not sell the 200,000th vehicle in the USA in June - so there was some inventory build at the end of the quarter. Bears have been told, repeatedly, that sales in Q3 will exceed production because of this but they can't move beyond the numbers in the 10Q.

Another example - Tesla generated a small positive gross margin on the Model 3 in Q2 - when selling only 18400 vehicles in the quarter. According to InsideEVS Scorecard, they have sold 14,000 plus in July alone in the USA - so that has to be profitable because productivity is so much better - and has to justify Tesla's belief that Q3 will be cash-flow positive. Bears still calculate that Tesla lost $20,000 per vehicle produced etc..

 

[Tslynk67]

I only watched a few minutes so far, don't think I can make it through the entire video. He definitely seems to have a good grasp on what bulls think.

I got about 5 minutes in...

tl:dw - he things bulls only look two quarters ahead, but bears are looking 2 - 3 years ahead.

Smart guy... His short average basis is 326, BTW...

 

[mutle]

tl:dw - he things bulls only look two quarters ahead, but bears are looking 2 - 3 years ahead.

I recently saw a short on Twitter mention VIN tracking as one of the reasons the shorts are so much smarter than us.

 

[dw4ngg]

I got about 5 minutes in...

tl:dw - he things bulls only look two quarters ahead, but bears are looking 2 - 3 years ahead.

Smart guy... His short average basis is 326, BTW...

Yes that would explain my 2020 calls....

 

[DragonWatch]

Bears not happy this morning ~ oh well, when I look out at the evergreens I feel good

 

[BrianZ]

I only watched a few minutes so far, don't think I can make it through the entire video. He definitely seems to have a good grasp on what bulls think.

I got through the entire video on 2x speed while doing some stretches, and because he's just so smug that he has no idea how screwed he's gonna be.

To avoid having you guys to watch the video, he says he'll be shorting even more whenever Tesla goes up by $50, and he doesn't care if the price doubles, he'll still do it because this "scam" will eventually fall and it'll trade at automotive levels of 1/4 of revenue.

It's amazing how out of touch these people are. He thinks bulls only look at 1-2 quarters out! Then proceeds to go on and on analyzing Tesla while looking at just the current quarter on profitability and cash flow.

I'm sorry, but this guy deserves what's coming at him.

 

[theschnell]

I’ll be surprised if we don’t close at least a little green today. Not starting out strong but that’s ok.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Seeing a bit of a push back from the shorts this morning? Back over $350 by noon? To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me to see it drop to about $330 or $335 before heading back up.

Dan

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I’ll be surprised if we don’t close at least a little green today. Not starting out strong but that’s ok.

Hey, just realized you're right up the road!

Dan

 

[Starno]

Seeing a bit of a push back from the shorts this morning? Back over $350 by noon? To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me to see it drop to about $330 or $335 before heading back up.

Dan

Careful with that kind of thinking. I remember in June when the SP reached 370 and then went downward, some people were thinking it would stabilize around 340 before heading up again and breaking ATH.
Whereas it just kept heading south to 300...

 

[Krugerrand]

I came across this weird video while browsing $TSLA on Twitter:

five00pagesaday

Gives some insight into the insane minds of the shorts and why a lot of them won't start covering until it rises much further and instead double down.

The fact he’s got to drive that car is probably what’s driven him mad.

 

[Tslynk67]

Seeing a bit of a push back from the shorts this morning? Back over $350 by noon? To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me to see it drop to about $330 or $335 before heading back up.

Dan

If it's shorts then they're even more crazy than I possibly imagined.

More likely some profit-taking...

I have no worries whatsoever. It can drop back to sub-300 for all I care, I'm not selling at these prices. And Q3's going to be even more painful for them.

 

[oneday]

We need some big upgrades.

 

[Tslynk67]

We need some big upgrades.

Yeah, where's the rumoured one from Jonas?

Where's Tripping' Trip when you need him? Ben Kallo, etc.

 

[TrendTrader007]

007‏ @TrendTrader007 21s21 seconds ago
$TSLA added to J 19 $680s