TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

Gotcha, yup, you're absolutely right. That is another way to go.

Can you tell me if I'm calculating the interest rate effect from the DITM LEAPS correctly as follows: For example, taking a $200 strike price for Jan 19, the premium is $161, which at the current share price of $351, gives about a $10 time value, which works out to about 2.85% (10/351*100%). I'm currently paying margin interest of 7% (I'm using Questrade), which I think is exorbitant, but we don't have a lot of options in Canada.

When buying $200 strike with $10 time-value premium, you're paying $10 to save spending $190 ($200-$10)
Your rate is 10/(200-10)*100%= 5.26%, for some 10-11 months, so close to 6%

I'd look into strikes that are even lower than $200, as per my post above time-value really melts as you approach $100... I'm personally using $100 to $180 strikes, leaning more towards $100, but I fully intend for most of these to hold until maturity and conversion. For me they're direct share replacement and I buy as many lots as I would be able to buy shares, and keep rest in cash, unless I intentionally leverage...

For example, say I have $1M. That would buy me 39 lots of $100 strike at $252 price, but I buy instead 28 lots as that represents 2800 shares that I have money to own (1M/$351=2849 shares), and keep $297K dry powder

 

[Menifeer]

Does your brokerage consider the LEAPS + some cash as covering the call you are selling or do you also have stock in tesla that covers the call ?

I have no shares - the LEAPS cover the sale.

If an assignment did occur (i.e., I'm forced to sell shares short since I have none), I'd then purchase shares to cover the position using the money I received from the short sale and whatever extra is required.

I've never had to buy to cover after doing this for a long time because I'm careful to close any option positions that would cause a sale.

 

[schonelucht]

Remember that there are large players in the market that have every interest to keep the share price below $359.87.

In connection with the offering of these notes in March 2014, we entered into convertible note hedge transactions whereby we have the option to purchase initially (subject to adjustment for certain specified events) a total of 5.6 million shares of our common stock at a price of $359.87 per share.

 

[HG Wells]

I am becoming more and more convinced that production has stopped (or slowed to a trickle).
Something is being redone these last few days. Hopefully it will double or triple production.

I guesstimate 3200 max for February.

Stock will probably go lower till middle of next week.


Not advice in any way, shape, or form.

 

[mongo]

I am becoming more and more convinced that production has stopped (or slowed to a trickle).
Something is being redone these last few days. Hopefully it will double or triple production.

I guesstimate 3200 max for February.

Stock will probably go lower till middle of next week.


Not advice in any way, shape, or form.

If S/X production was reduced Q4-17 and early Q1-18 to assist with 3 production, and supplier orders for S/X stayed constant, then Tesla would be sitting on a lot of extra parts inventory. So they may be focusing on catching up S/X production to reduce on hand parts inventory while buffering 3 components (showing confidence in Fremont line speed once GF supplies packs).

 

[ZenMan]

A lot of members believe the stock price is limited by the Model 3 ramp. But what if it is not?


Conversation



Option_Sniper

@option_snipper

$TSLA nothing to say here. if u r still hesitated if tsla is total reversal, you don't understand this name so just quit. NO ONE else on twit gave you CONFIDENCE based on facts & technicals about its trend. i said many times M3 production bottleneck NOT a problem. embrace the run
Option_Sniper

@option_snipper
$TSLA huge b/o move incoming. as i said again and again when it was down to 300 area, that was a STEAL BUY. weekly monthly chart both super bullish. need to break 360 first, then 371 377 384 387. remember my PT $466.


8:26 PM · Feb 26, 2018

 

[AlMc]

The model 3 ramp is why we have not broken 360 yet IMO. I believe OS is correct that if we break and hold 360 we will see more upside potential. If you are strictly a long term TSLA holder then when we break 360 and why we break 360 is not that important.

However, if you are in options and trade TSLA short/medium term, we very well may test 320-330 again. We are still looking at a 'mo-mo' stock here.

 

[wnorris]

A lot of members believe the stock price is limited by the Model 3 ramp. But what if it is not?

I am in the boat who believes that the Model 3 ramp will need to be confirmed. I would not mind O Sniper to prove me wrong, but I want to see it.

We shall see how much influence the TSLA technicals have over general sentiment. My belief is that we will see our long anticipated move closer to the summer once we eclipse around the 3k a week mark. This will be evidence that 5k a week can likely be reached. If 5K can be reached then we know 10k is doable, largely a function of additional manufacturing equipment/lines.

Edit: To clarify, 386 could be tested based on techinicals, but an eclipse of the ATH should be based on fundamentals related to manufacturing progress.

 

[HG Wells]

I am bullish on Tesla.
On the yearly time scale I am extremely bullish on Tesla
At the 30 day time frame I am bullish on Tesla.
On the 1-7 day time frame I am bearish.

I think the monthly production estimates for February will disappoint.

Yesterday I sold 40% of my 2020 LEAPS. I will probably buy back in next week.

Not advice in any way, shape, or form.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I am bullish on Tesla.
On the yearly time scale I am extremely bullish on Tesla
At the 30 day time frame I am bullish on Tesla.
On the 1-7 day time frame I am bearish.

I think the monthly production estimates for February will disappoint.

Yesterday I sold 40% of my 2020 LEAPS. I will probably buy back in next week.

Not advice in any way, shape, or form.

Will monitor your success let us know how it works out for you. Where will production estimate for February come from? They only announce on quarterly basis.

 

[Reciprocity]

I am bullish on Tesla.
On the yearly time scale I am extremely bullish on Tesla
At the 30 day time frame I am bullish on Tesla.
On the 1-7 day time frame I am bearish.

I think the monthly production estimates for February will disappoint.

Yesterday I sold 40% of my 2020 LEAPS. I will probably buy back in next week.

Not advice in any way, shape, or form.

I agree here. I am not seeing anything that encourages me that deliveries are going to be good. You have to understand that our sources for delivery data is flawed at best, but its all negative right now. If InsideEVs, which no ones if they are accurate or not, they are seen as being fairly accurate. Whats going to happen is if the deliveries are less then 4k, which am as sure of as I am the sun will rise, that would be less then 1k/w. It doesnt matter that deliveries are not production and it doesnt matter that their methodologies may not work well for estimating model 3 deliveries. It will only matter that they will be lower then expectations of most investors. This is bad because it would point to a production rate that is no where near 2.5k/w which by the time the numbers are out, will be just 4 short weeks from the end of the quarter deadline. I get that the production could improve quickly, but no one will know this until its too late for the share price. I am a hyper bull long term, but the next week or so, I am very skiddish and I have stop losses in place at much higher amounts then I normally would. I might even buy some puts with the intention of cashing them in and buying stocks after a drop. Not an advice.

 

[Irishjugg]

How is it a crime?

He is a grown man that of his own free will placed a large risky wager with borrowed money and lost.

I think he is also driving around in a rather well equipped Model S and Model X purchased with past winnings.

Anyone able to point me to where in town thread that all happened, or a specific day?

I've been out for a while and don't think reading 30 pages is a good use of my time.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Anyone able to point me to where in town thread that all happened, or a specific day?

I've been out for a while and don't think reading 30 pages is a good use of my time.

Well if it' a waste of your time why would anybody else do it for you?

 

[RobStark]

Bosch decides against own battery cell production

 

[mongo]

Well if it' a waste of your time why would anybody else do it for you?

Purely as a training exercise for anyone who follows...

@Irishjugg

Google search:
site:teslamotorsclub.com trendtrader007 margin call

Second link
Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion
Post #1868

 

[larmor]

A lot of talk regarding model 3 ramp and valuation of Tesla is happening I believe that is because delivery of an automobile is a durable / large good that can be physically counted or estimated with a high degree of accuracy. Compared to iPhone or other cell phone handsets, cell phone cases, or other random widget that goes through a third-party retailer.

In this case the car is going from the manufacturer directly to the customer's hands and having high degree of estimation of delivery numbers will allow Market Traders and Market Movers to make the most of fluctuations in either direction.

The Tesla story remains unknown regarding Tesla energy, as well as research and development on enhanced autopilot and full self-driving features as they are only being released to select cars and remain in testing.

 

[madodel]

Would the slowdown in Model 3 production be related to installing the new line equipment or should they be continuing the old line in parallel? Or has that already been completed? Has anyone done a factory tour recently?

 

[elasalle]

Would the slowdown in Model 3 production be related to installing the new line equipment or should they be continuing the old line in parallel? Or has that already been completed? Has anyone done a factory tour recently?

New Line if we are referring to battery module coming in from Grohmann is slated for March ?

 

[Big Earl]

Anyone able to point me to where in town thread that all happened, or a specific day?

I've been out for a while and don't think reading 30 pages is a good use of my time.

This tweet sums it up: 007 on Twitter

 

[Big Earl]

Would the slowdown in Model 3 production be related to installing the new line equipment or should they be continuing the old line in parallel? Or has that already been completed? Has anyone done a factory tour recently?

The new line is for the Gigafactory, not the vehicle factory. It's slated for March, so either they got it very early (unlikely) or this production slowdown is due to something else.