TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TSLA_Hopeful]

now that the left one is gone, is the remaining one still considered the right one?

What happens when an unstoppable force collides with an unmovable object?

I'm not too worried though. TSLA will rise soon enough. I'll bet my right nut when the time is right(get it?). I just better not end up with two right nuts.

Alright... I'm retiring from nut conversations until $400!

 

[omarsultan]

With Fred's piece, its hard to parse out the facts from his conjecture so it's not possible to test his assumptions and math. It's also no clear what production refers to? Does production in the article = factory gate or some other definition?

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't think it did in the past.
I think it should.
Mainstream journalists need to print something, and they'll print whatever is offered to them.
Tesla better give them something, rather than being fed by shorts only.

This.

Mainstream journalism is an economy where "the scoop" is the main currency.

Tesla could be a central bank printing money in that economy, but right now they are watching it from the sidelines how shorts are counterfeiting their currency.

It's naive and counterproductive.

I'll bet you the remaining nut of @TSLA_Hopeful that had David Gelles of the NYT been in debt with Tesla with a few nice inside stories, he'd have been a lot more careful about how to spin his interview with Elon...

 

[wipster]

What happens when an unstoppable force collides with an unmovable object?

I'm not too worried though. TSLA will rise soon enough. I'll bet my right nut when the time is right(get it?). I just better not end up with two right nuts.

Alright... I'm retiring from nut conversations until $400!

Better to have two rights rather than only one left.

But please next time, don't pledge it until after we reach $400... you know, like next week.

 

[Johan]

Spent 6 minutes listening to our good friend Mark the mirror on Yahoo finance. It's good sometimes to get the bear narrative straight from a horse's mouth. Now that I wasted 6 minutes of my life none of you have to (one for the team): there's nothing new. He did say though that "any sentient being clearly must understand" that Elon committed securities fraud with his tweets and likely the SEC is building "a huge case" as we speak. Next he said S and X sales are declining, that the new Jaguar has gotten better reviews than any Tesla car ever had, that soon there will be 4 competitors (Jaguar, Porsche, Audi and Mercedes) that will all be better than any Tesla and outsell them. In summation he's still waiting on Tesla to go bankwupt (could happen "any day now") but if that doesn't happen he expects "stunted growth" next year thanks to competition. As I said in my exchange with Donn Beachbum; you can disguise it any way you want but the failing demand argument is always going to be at the core of a short's narrative.

Also look at this one if you want a laugh, skip to 3:40:

(He's bearish, says the cars are of poor quality, admits to never having driven one but has read reviews and says that it doesn't matter because he's seen the financials and they tell the whole story)

Tesla: Bull and Bear investors debate

 

[Causalien]

Did anyone see this?

Tesla bear slams Elon Musk

As an anecdote, I was at the Red Hook, Brooklyn Tesla show room on Saturday in New York just chatting to someone there (I'm expecting my 3D-PUP there soon) and he mentioned that they're expecting 1,000 M3's between now and mid September. There were dozens of M3's parked around the block awaiting pickup. It's really busy every night.

Was the camera shaky or was M.Spiegel shaky? Is that the early symptoms of Parkinson's I am seeing?

 

[Johan]

Was the camera shaky or was M.Spiegel shaky? Is that the early symptoms of Parkinson's I am seeing?

Being short TSLA for >4 years requires and solid consumption of Whiskey on a daily basis... also it could just be early onset Lewy-Body dementia playing out. Poor judgement, irritability and aggressiveness, delusions are all early symptoms.

 

[Cosmacelf]

So, reading the WSJ article (leaked elsewhere, since I will not give money to that dishonest Murdoch rag) it sounds like the Saudi Musk talked to gave him the impression that the Saudis would fund the deal, but then they backed out (possibly because they were claiming to have more money than they actually do), amid disagreement within the Saudi government.

And apparently the biggest investors interested in going private are other auto companies and Saudis, which I think is a big ugh from everyone involved in Tesla.

You really should be skeptical of what you are reading. Why would a WSJ reporter know intimate details about the Saudi fund? Just don’t take things you read about in the papers as necessarily true.

 

[dandurston]

Fred writing that Tesla is behind currently is entirely factual: even a marginal 50-51k figure is probably below expectations.

No it's not.

Whether or not Tesla is behind depends on where they expected to be at this point. But this "factual" conclusion is instead based on someone else's uncharitable expectations/assumptions. To conclude Tesla are behind, Fred is assuming an equal production rate across the entire quarter and thus a linear increase in total production over the quarter.

This is an uncharitable assumption because it assumes zero improvement in Tesla's production rates over the quarter, which is certainly not what Tesla's intentions were when they stated that 50 - 55K goal. Perhaps Tesla's plan was 4K/wk in July, 4.5K/wk in August and 5K/wk in September. If that was the plan, then they are right on schedule. If you assume a more exponential ramp, Tesla is well ahead.

What we know as a fact (assuming Fred's numbers are right) is that Tesla only needs to average 3800 cars/wk for the rest of the quarter to meet the low end of their goal. That's impressive and easily within reach. By any reasonable assessment they are on track on meet that goal.

 

[Fact Checking]

As I said in my exchange with Donn Beachbum; you can disguise it any way you want but the failing demand argument is always going to be at the core of a short's narrative.

Let's also note that it's the easiest argument in the world to make, which takes no intellectual effort whatsoever.

It's also not falsifiable straight away when projected into the future: technically demand could fall overnight.

The right response is to ask shorts why they think the market should reward a cheap, self serving, hard to falsify projection that takes about 10 seconds to make and which is contradicted by 10 years of Tesla track record. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and so far they've provided nothing but conjecture.

 

[shlokavica22]

Did anyone see this?

Tesla bear slams Elon Musk

Seriously, what is the point paying attention to this guy? His claims are so transparently deluded, bringing 0 value to the bear/bull conversation.

He is like a broken record, repeating the same points over and over. He is either a complete moron living in a self-made echo-chamber, or a Muppet receiving payments from interested parties to spread bullshit in any given opportunity.

He was asked how he can still feel confident shorting the stock when the Saudi PIF just entered the game. His response- the Saudis don't have that much money. They barely can afford 2-3B to add to their position. Really?!

 

[Fact Checking]

This is a poor assumption and analysis because Tesla undoubtably did not assume zero improvement in their production rates across the quarter when they stated that 50 - 55K goal. Of course they are going to improve.

What are you basing that assumption on?

For example if Tesla is battery cell limited, due to Panasonic ramping up:

BREAKING: Panasonic To Increase Gigafactory Cell Production More Than 30% By End Of 2018 | CleanTechnica

Then Tesla's current manufacturing rate in Fremont is effectively linear, with small fluctuations.

Any improvements in Fremont won't improve M3 output, because the (known and temporary) bottleneck is in the Gigafactory.

Also, I do expect Tesla to meet the 50-55k guidance, but I've seen expectations of 60k+ production here based on the Bloomberg tracker, which IMO could be overly optimistic.

 

[Johan]

Seriously, what is the point paying attention to this guy?

I agree with your analysis. The point of sometimes paying a bit of attention is that some non-significant part of the bears actually build their case on these arguments. Since most here are bullish it's good for us to, from time to time, check and make sure that they still are wildly lost in their fantasy world echo chamber. That way we can keep riding the stock and feel pretty confident that the value it's trading at is lower than its intrinsic value, because the high short interest is constantly depressing it artificially - but as long as the short narrative is built on faulty presumtions we can discount its effects.

 

[Fact Checking]

He was asked how he can still feel confident shorting the stock when the Saudi PIF just entered the game. His response- the Saudis don't have that much money. They barely can afford 2-3B to add to their position. Really?!

We should turn that into a meme and spread it on Twitter!

 

[The Blue Owl]

Seriously, what is the point paying attention to this guy? His claims are so transparently deluded, bringing 0 value to the bear/bull conversation.

He is like a broken record, repeating the same points over and over. He is either a complete moron living in a self-made echo-chamber, or a Muppet receiving payments from interested parties to spread bullshit in any given opportunity.

He was asked how he can still feel confident shorting the stock when the Saudi PIF just entered the game. His response- the Saudis don't have that much money. They barely can afford 2-3B to add to their position. Really?!

I share the opinion that he is a complete moron, but when I want to take the pulse of the other side, I just glimpse at his Twitter page. He follows all the big shorters out there and retweets everything within seconds of the original tweet, so he is the perfect aggregator of everything negative about Tesla. (I do skip all of his own tweets, though, since they are always inane.)

 

[shlokavica22]

The point of sometimes paying a bit of attention is that some non-significant part of the bears actually build their case on these arguments.

Exactly. That's why I try to read reasonable bear thesis. However with this guy it is the same crap all the time- TSLA running out of money; the upcoming EV's from Jaguar, Porsche, etc will be CERTAINLY better than Tesla, the "Rocked boy" is a fraud.

 

[Fact Checking]

Was the camera shaky or was M.Spiegel shaky? Is that the early symptoms of Parkinson's I am seeing?

Spiegel apparently turned a 7 figures (mini-) hedge fund by shorting Tesla and panic-covering at over $360 price levels into a 6 figures (micro-) hedge fund.

He then used the remaining 6 figures of capital to buy 2020 put options as a Hail Mary bet: a depreciating asset that loses about ~4% of value per month.

It won't take much time for his capital to reach 5 figures, which possibly includes a fair chunk of his personal fortune as well.

All while the DOW and NASDAQ is reaching new all time highs and everyone with an IQ above 50 is making money.

I'd be shaking too, and he is probably feeling some nausea as well.

 

[Foghat]

He turned a 7 figures (mini-) hedge fund by shorting Tesla and panic-covering at over $360 price levels into a 6 figures (micro-) hedge fund.

He then used the remaining 6 figures of capital to buy 2020 put options as a Hail Mary bet: a depreciating asset that loses about ~4% of value per month.

It won't take much time for his capital to reach 5 figures, which is possibly his personal fortune as well.

All while the DOW and NASDAQ is reaching new highs.

I'd be shaking too, and he is probably feeling some nausea as well.

He’s highly recommended around town as turning a big fortune into a small one. Very successful at it and his reputation precedes him.

Maybe he’ll give coal hedge his first ride in his MS before he liquidates his asset to pay the bills.

 

[MP3Mike]

Wow that was fast: Tesla wins against Ontario gov as judge rules that phase-out of EV incentives is discriminatory

Why can't we get speedy judgments like that here in the US?

In Ontario, a judge has sided with Tesla and agreed that the government was discriminating against the company when it excluded Tesla from the phase-out period of the removal of the province’s EV incentives.

Now it is up to the Ministry of Transport’s to make things right for the Tesla buyers.

 

[ktrivedi70]

What happens when an unstoppable force collides with an unmovable object?

I'm not too worried though. TSLA will rise soon enough. I'll bet my right nut when the time is right(get it?). I just better not end up with two right nuts.

Alright... I'm retiring from nut conversations until $400!

Relax. Your getting way too teste about this.