TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

If becoming profitable doesn’t impact the stock price positively over the next 6 months, the following will:
When I did my first Tesla test drive, I was already totally convinced that my next car would be a Model S. I had read these forums, and I had a friend with an S who had taken me on a test ride. When the Tesla sales/demo guy after the test drive asked me what the other cars were that I was considering, I was surprised and answered ‘Nothing, there is nothing else’.
I have taken a lot of people in a test drive with my Model S, but for practically all of them it’s just a curiosity, as they are not in a position to buy an X or S themselves. With Model 3 it will be different, when somebody explains them the economics and TCO of a Model 3, a lot of those people will be in the same situation I was 4 years ago: totally convinced that their next car will be a Tesla.
The thing is: as of now, every week there are 5K more people giving test rides or drives to their famliy, their collegues, their friends, and maybe even random strangers. These are really big numbers: not only the production of Model 3 goes up exponentially, the Tesla sales force (the Tesla owners) also expands expands exponentially!

Indeed, Nico. I have taken many people in my Model S and X, and they love it, they talk to me about it constantly, but they don't have the means to buy one. However I know several people who have a reservation for a Model 3. They've never test-driven a Tesla, but they're very excited about it regardless.

My kids can't imagine anything else. Their friends, who I've taxied about after sleep-overs and parties, nag their parents constantly.

It's huge, really huge.

 

[dondy]

Again, I would encourage every long that hasn't ignored me yet to just re-read this and consider the collective.

Read dondy's responses and ask "if this wasn't Tesla or Elon but some other generic company, would I believe this?"
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Tesla is one of the most shorted stocks in history. The idea that we're all evil morons is dangerous if wrong.

Again, I would encourage every long that hasn't ignored me yet to just re-read this and consider the collective.

Read dondy's responses and ask "if this wasn't Tesla or Elon but some other generic company, would I believe this?"

Tesla is one of the most shorted stocks in history. The idea that we're all evil morons is dangerous if wrong.

You have to remove "all evil". Just morons.
Those who resort with personal attack, harassments of Tesla employees, or car owners, spreading lies and misinformation are indeed evil.

 

[shlokavica22]

The thing is: as of now, every week there are 5K more people giving test rides or drives to their famliy, their collegues, their friends, and maybe even random strangers.

That's exactly it. The demand won't wither. It will only increase. And that will be devastating for the industry.
As you said, the moment Tesla entered your mind you stopped consider any other brand. That thinking will spread as a virus and will kill the demand for ICE cars long before Tesla reaches 5-10% of the market.

 

[dondy]

Fair enough. I should point out that when I wrote "obfuscate production numbers" I meant "obfuscate VINs" which was the context, and that I certainly don't advocate that Tesla needs to disclose (obfuscated or not) more than what is legally required regarding current production, and that these calls for "transparency" are ridiculous. So I fully understand anyone who disagrees with my obfuscated post.

Lastly, this forum gave me the impression that Tesla VINs are pretty much assigned in a chronological order, and that owners use some of the VIN digits to indicate at what stage of production their vehicle was produced. Feel free to correct any wrong assumptions I have made regarding this.

I am too lazy to dig VIN report diagram but it's not exactly linear. Judging by the frequency of little VINs bit Tesla registers I would think that the algorithm is 1month length, i.e. to scramble week production levels.

 

[Unpilot]

Since it is off topic weekend here is a little aside from me. I bought a Chevy Volt in 2014 because I wanted to do my part in the transition to clean energy. I thought the car was brilliant as it did away with range anxiety with the gas extender engine. At the time Tesla was not on my horizon. After getting hooked on the quiet smooth ride a electric car gives you I found myself in a Tesla store in Chicago one afternoon.

One sit and look at a Model S up close and I was gone...I WAS going to get one. I bought mine December of last year ...then started buying stock...then became evangelical about the company....now I spend all my free time here!

The help with almost any issue and the knowledge this forum has ...well it can bring a tear to this old mans eye.

I know some of you folks have been here a long time and have seen many more up and downs than I have ...but I can't help but believe that we are just at the cusp of a major change in Tesla fortunes.

 

[AlMc]

With the stock price at this level, I am actually expecting more shorts with an agenda to show up here. So far crickets.

Why is this? Did mod banned them all? Or did Eihorn getting margin called by his investors has something to do with this?

I agree. Expected more from the bears.shorts on TMC. I also expect they will not go away from TSLA. As pro Tesla as we all are the shorts are just as stubborn in their positions. It is one of those companies (with a CEO) that is so disruptive (different) that you can get rational and intelligent people coming to diametrically opposed opinions.

We bulls look at the shorts/bears and can't figure out what they do not 'get it' just as they look at us not 'getting it'.

As EM has said time again: 'If you don't like volatility, get out'. and 'Place your bets'

My reasoning for being on the long side of the bet is the mission statement (OK, making money on the way is OK by me). I can not understand making money by betting against an American Company trying to better future generations and the earth.

 

[SO16]

Bear vs bull video. Kinda interesting.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Who just righted the Model 3 ramp by restructuring, camping on Gigafactory roof and helping rewrite 2/3 years of code in just a few weeks, sleeping on the Fremont factory floor and getting down in the trenches with the common man to build a tent and sort other stuffs out, and threw away a very strong desire to take his company private to protect the retail investor?

IRONMAN, that's who.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

So your strategy is, "Wait until the price is high, then buy"?

Buy high, sell low is the r/wallstreetbets way

 

[Artful Dodger]

Someone may have the historic afterhour/premarket chart to share

Do you need NASDAQ per min SP + Vol too? Pre-market + After-hrs data is only available through that source until the next trading day.

In the mean time, here's a screenie of Google's Chart for for Aug 1st, 2018

 

[ZachShahan]

IMO, not yet. Who just righted the Model 3 ramp by restructuring, camping on Gigafactory roof and helping rewrite 2/3 years of code in just a few weeks, sleeping on the Fremont factory floor and getting down in the trenches with the common man to build a tent and sort other stuffs out, and threw away a very strong desire to take his company private to protect the retail investor?

And who do you think managed to get such a sweet deal for China Gigafactory? 100% foreign ownership of a car factory!!! It’ll be the first of its kind.

No. Just no. We can revisit in 10 years.

And this is why the shorts push the narrative that Elon needs to step down.

 

[JRP3]

That's one of the reasons shorts gave up on trying to s*** on the products...

When did that happen?

 

[Ugliest1]

So back to what I said this morning

I remember being first sent a URL for the initial "reveal" of the Model X - I think it was back in 2012. I thought it was interesting, but a pipe-dream.

Then, by pure chance, in June 2013, I happened across the Tesla store in Brussels. It must have recently opened, because I'd never seen it before. They had a white US-spec Model S there. I was totally enraptured by the look of the car - somewhere between a Maserati, Jaguar and Aston Martin. But it had 7 seats, a big trunk, a freakin' frunk! I thought to myself, "blimey, this is practical enough for my family".

Like many others here, lots of research ensued and a test-drive booked at the earliest opportunity - September.

And like everyone, regardless of how the car looks and all the other good stuff, when you actually drive it, you're on another level altogether. I was blown away. I couldn't stop thinking about it, I couldn't stop talking about it. I was hooked.

I ordered my P85 on December 13th and took delivery March 29th 2014. This car changed my whole outlook on life. And what's amazing is that now, 4.5 years later, my enthusiasm hasn't wained, if anything it's more intense.

And I'm pretty sure I'm not alone. I think a very high %age of Tesla owners go through exactly the same experience.

Who wouldn't want to own stock in such company? Who would seriously bet against it?

I'm just going to go ahead and completely agree with you here.

 

[shlokavica22]

When did that happen?

I don't talk about occasional haters/trolls/nobodies. I talk about the coordinated attacks, employing the mass media.
At least my feeling is that they shifted from "Model 3 is not good enough" --> "Model 3 can't be produced in good quantities" --> "Model 3 can't make profit" --> "Elon lost it". I mean Elon was attacked consistently, but now the full focus is on him.
I actually wonder if it isn't partially his choice, because in that way he deflected the attention from Freemont.

 

[generalenthu]

Indeed, Nico. I have taken many people in my Model S and X, and they love it, they talk to me about it constantly, but they don't have the means to buy one. However I know several people who have a reservation for a Model 3. They've never test-driven a Tesla, but they're very excited about it regardless.

My kids can't imagine anything else. Their friends, who I've taxied about after sleep-overs and parties, nag their parents constantly.

It's huge, really huge.

I gave my friend a test drive in June. He immediately confirmed his reservation he was sitting on. His car arrived last week.

He was on the fence with Tesla, and works in fossil fuel related industry and had a total change of heart. His brother visiting him for labor day is going back on a plan to get range Rover evoque, and is getting the 3 instead. He thinks he'll end up getting 4 people to buy the car from the test drives he gave this week.

His first grader's favorite thing to do this past week is to get all his friends into the car, and get his dad to summon it back and forth.

This thing sells itself. Not sure what the shorts crying demand are smoking. Must be some really good stuff.

 

[ZachShahan]

So back to what I said this morning

I remember being first sent a URL for the initial "reveal" of the Model X - I think it was back in 2012. I thought it was interesting, but a pipe-dream.

Then, by pure chance, in June 2013, I happened across the Tesla store in Brussels. It must have recently opened, because I'd never seen it before. They had a white US-spec Model S there. I was totally enraptured by the look of the car - somewhere between a Maserati, Jaguar and Aston Martin. But it had 7 seats, a big trunk, a freakin' frunk! I thought to myself, "blimey, this is practical enough for my family".

Like many others here, lots of research ensued and a test-drive booked at the earliest opportunity - September.

And like everyone, regardless of how the car looks and all the other good stuff, when you actually drive it, you're on another level altogether. I was blown away. I couldn't stop thinking about it, I couldn't stop talking about it. I was hooked.

I ordered my P85 on December 13th and took delivery March 29th 2014. This car changed my whole outlook on life. And what's amazing is that now, 4.5 years later, my enthusiasm hasn't wained, if anything it's more intense.

And I'm pretty sure I'm not alone. I think a very high %age of Tesla owners go through exactly the same experience.

Who wouldn't want to own stock in such company? Who would seriously bet against it?

The Model 3 and Model Y are going to be that for how many people?

How many of them have a clue about that at this point?

I think the answers are pretty clear: 1) A whole helluva lot. 2) A small % of them.

And how many will buy TSLA once they discover and get a Model 3, Y, S, or X?

 

[ZachShahan]

They've lost, and they know it.

Every single bear/short argument has been shown to be false.

There's nothing left except FUD and lies.

And they know it.

The desperation on Twitter is palpable.

"There's nothing left except FUD and lies."

And “Morning Monkey Business.”

 

[Artful Dodger]

When did that happen?

The shorts gave up trying to s*** on Tesla products on Aug 7th, 2018 around 12:48 pm ET with the "Tweet heard 'round the World"

Now they've bet their future on s***ing on Elon. Good luck with that! It's all Kabuki theatre from here on out, and we know how this drama ends.

 

[FirebirdAlpha]

With the stock price at this level, I am actually expecting more shorts with an agenda to show up here. So far crickets.

Why is this? Did mod banned them all? Or did Eihorn getting margin called by his investors has something to do with this?

They've lost, and they know it.

Every single bear/short argument has been shown to be false.

There's nothing left except FUD and lies.

And they know it.

The desperation on Twitter is palpable.

There's just nothing left.

They're not going to deliver 50k Model 3s this quarter. They probably won't deliver 45k. I wouldn't be surprised to see it come under 40k.

I think there's a clear quality problem with the Model 3. There are hundreds of reports across Tesla's forums, these forums, and Twitter of customers having problems getting their cars.

Other anecdotes: Canada S/X sales were way down in August, and Model 3 registrations are way down in New York State.

I don't know why you all trust Elon's guidance. In early May 2018, Elon said they'd be at 5k/week by the end of Q2. But in Q2, they still averaged below 2500/week, and even worse on deliveries. And Q3 guidance is below 5k/week.

Look back at when Elon promised profitability: a tweet in April. He's been doubling down ever since. I think it was a mistake, a hole he has dug too deep. Another random, impulsive tweet.

With all that in mind, they won't be profitable, and they absolutely won't be cash flow positive.

At this point, there are 4 weeks left in the quarter.

Shorts are feeling pretty good given that we're still seeing cars on lots in Lathrop, Burbank, and Service Centers sitting idle for weeks. Hitting their target would require much more turnover than what we're seeing.

If Tesla comes under 45k deliveries, the stock will be hammered.

No one cares about production anymore. With debts coming due, the only thing that matters is deliveries.

 

[KarenRei]

Shorts are feeling pretty good given that we're still seeing cars on lots in Lathrop, Burbank, and Service Centers sitting idle for weeks

Shortsville Times: Model 3 Distribution Lots Are Actually Secret Car Graveyards
"Please don't multiply how many weeks we've been saying this by Model 3 production rates and compare that to how many cars the lots can actually hold" say experts

Related:
* Europe, Asia, Rest of World Do Not Exist
* February 27th Coming Up Tomorrow
* Model S and X Demand Collapsing - This Time, It's Actually True!
* Anecdotes Now Data, Say People Who Scour Net Looking For Anyone With Anything Bad To Say About A Model 3