And I say it will take 55-56k deliveries.
Now you are misleading about what you said just a few comments ago:
The problem is 51,000 is not enough for a profit.
Your fact-free and false certainty and confidence, the lack of "according to my guesses" qualifier, the dismissive tone, your later refusal to back up your claims with credible facts - these are all tell-tale signatures of concern trolling and stock bashing.
I do not have a short stock position. I buy long-dated puts [...]
That's a non-denial and a distinction without a difference: TSLA PUT options are considered short positions, because when you buy TSLA PUT options from a market maker they will delta-hedge their long exposure as short stock sales on the market. The current 30m+ short interest in Tesla was in part generated by long-term PUT options.
There is no way to tell who will be right until early November.
That's a false, misleading claim too: the first strong indicator of Tesla profitability will be around October the 2nd when Tesla releases their Q3 delivery and production report, which is only a little over 3 business weeks away.
Also, you are wrong to frame the question of Tesla profitability and cash flow to only depend on M3 deliveries: the Q3 financial results also strongly depend on
Model S/X deliveries and overall production figures, to have a good notion of what Tesla's net income and in particular what their cash generation power and cash balance is going to be in Q3. A lot of the FUD arguments you are trying to spread here depend on the current negative cash flow of Tesla.
To repeat: based on conservative guidance
luvb2b's model is projecting Q3 profitability and positive cash flow, even with just 50k Model 3 deliveries that are at the lowest end of Tesla's guidance, and despite heavy -$600m cash drain caused by temporary Model 3 factory expansion capex.
I am also not retracting one thing I have written.
JFYI:
Friendly advice: if you are involved in "stock bashing" of Tesla then you and your firm might have
significant legal exposure: it's a crime, a felony that can be prosecuted or litigated in civil court by any parties harmed, such as Tesla or TSLA long position holders at the time of your stock bashing (if any).
Furthermore, you could possibly also be legally required to preserve all electronic and other evidence of your activities here from the moment you have read comments here that suggest that your activities might be illegal, as destruction/deletion of them could be construed felony destruction of evidence, felony tampering with evidence and/or felony obstruction of justice. During litigation (if any) various service providers could be required to provide your IP address and other identifying information to the plaintiff(s).
Even if the SEC is typically not prosecuting securities laws violations by stock bashers, the First Amendment will generally not protect against being held responsible for damages in civil court, especially if the financial motivations of the stock basher are clear, such as a short position in form of a short stock position or short options such as PUTs held or CALLs sold, or other derivatives.
If a stock basher is working for a financial firm or for a competitor of Tesla, then the legal exposure might extend to the firm as well, especially if the stock bashing was done on company time and/or company equipment. Depending on the facts of the case, litigation might also invoke RICO claims, based on the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, 18 U.S.C sections 1961-1968.
This is probably one of the reasons why the infamous "Montana Sceptic" deleted his Twitter account and stopped his anonymous stock bashing of Tesla so quickly: once his identity and his financial interests were exposed, his firm's legal exposure probably became significant.
This is not legal advice, talk to your lawyer and to the managers/owners of your firm if in doubt about whether what you are doing here is a felony or not. Financial institutions often forbid their employees from expressing
any opinion semi-anonymously on social media about publicly traded companies they have a financial interest in, especially if the employee is involved in trading that stock; and violating such corporate policy can be grounds for immediate termination of employment.