TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[wipster]

Don't want to dominate this board, but aren't most of the model 3's parked in Raleigh? The last weather report on Florence shows the storm heading south and Raleigh primarily getting rain, away from the main portion of the hurricane. While I feel for all the folks there and hope this isn't as bad an event as forecast, the fact it's heading south is good news for the 3's awaiting delivery or sale.

 

[wipster]

What is LAR, please? TIA.

Read above...

 

[larmor]

I agree with TT007 on this. Stock stays strong on major negative news is a positive sign. But I wouldn't read too much into this indicator.

I saw on 5-minutes chart, between 13~14 pm, someone tried to push the stock down but failed.

Personnel on finance team leaving maybe they are serious about not needing to finance a cash raise...

 

[TradingInvest]

Nomura's Romit Shah has the perfect recipe. Said buy at 350 and sell at 275. In chip business we call it silicon to carbon converter...

It's unfortunate. He should have requested a factory visit before reversing his calls. I think this is the kind of traders we don't want on TSLA. He doesn't seem to be an investor who really understands Tesla. Those who really understand were happily adding shares between $255 and $265.

 

[wipster]

Was my impression too. Will be interesting to see this play out, may accelerate tesla semi use for tesla shipping purposes. Wonder when we get to see the first ones used for real work instead of prototypes on sales tour.

Hey, maybe the fremont mass 'pick your car up yourself' events are going to be more frequent too.

Was thinking the same thing about the Semi! What better way to try them out (unless they break on the side of the road and wrong person takes a picture)?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nomura's Romit Shah has the perfect recipe. Said buy at 350 and sell at 275. In chip business we call it silicon to carbon converter...

Haha, cash burn alchemy.

 

[CaliBear1]

He knows...

Wow, TMC Hari-kari. Things are getting really intense around here!

 

[Zaxxon]

As he used to work for Johnson and Johnson, maybe McAnear is getting a big raise to go put a bandaid on a company. Or even more likely, he got passed over for the CAO position, so he's going elsewhere.

Thanks for your help and good luck in your future ventures.

The Verge has more.

“Several weeks ago, I announced to my team that I would be leaving Tesla because I had the chance to take a CFO role at another company,” McAnear said in a statement to The Verge. “I’ve truly loved my time at Tesla, and I have great respect for my colleagues and the work they do, but this was simply an opportunity I couldn’t pass up. Any other speculation as to why I’ve left is simply inaccurate. I’ve been working with the team to ensure a smooth transition prior to my last day on October 7th, and a number of members of the team are stepping up to fill my role.”

 

[wipster]

Late Afternoon Rise. Hmm... That sounded dodgy, we're still talking about the stock here right?

I think you're confusing it with an AD: Afternoon Delight.

I can understand why though with the sky rockets in flight and all...

 

[Fact Checking]

The media is awfully obsessed with this intense focus on Tesla being in chaos, but apparently they get their clicks with that message, so we will keep seeing it.

BTW., here's a new article from @ZachShahan over at CleanTechnica:

Is Business Insider Searching For The Truth On Tesla? #Pravduh #RealityCheck | CleanTechnica

Which documents the relentless, systematic negativity of Business Insider against Tesla and Elon Musk in particular, which seems to go way beyond the 'they are doing it for the clicks' modus operandi of third tier business media rags.

BTW., there's a curious coincidence from 2013, when Jeff Bezos invested in Business Insider:

JEFF BEZOS INVESTS IN BUSINESS INSIDER [Full Internal Memo]

I don't know what his current stake in BI is, but there's more:

• Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post, which was one of the main FUD sources against SpaceX, back when it still made some sense to lie and mislead about SpaceX.
  
• The same Jeff Bezos who is also running a competing rocket launch company, Blue Origin.
• See: "SpaceX vs. Blue Origin: The bickering titans of new space", and also this Reddit post on /r/spacex discussing it, for more background.
  
• Blue Origin's key asset and intellectual property is the new BE-4 rocket engine (rocket engines are about 80% of the complexity and risk of a new rocket), which was designed and built by ex SpaceX engineers who were poached, when Blue Origin hired almost every Raptor engineer from SpaceX with irresistible offers.
• That incident set back SpaceX's Raptor effort, which is key to SpaceX's next gen launch system, by years.
  
• Interesting SpaceX's Raptor design uses a unique methane fueled full-flow combustion design never used before by any other rocket company. Which design BE-4 ended up using too.
• There are persistent rumors that when the poaching happened an email filter went into effect at SpaceX that would block the poaching efforts of Blue Origin. In the Reddit discussion: "SpaceX had to block emails which include the phrase Blue Origin because they mercilessly headhunted engineers from the Raptor development team. Long time before SpaceX and BO share a toothbrush IMO."

So there does appear to be some serious bad blood between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, where Bezos was apparently the initiator and aggressor, and Jeff Bezos is also the one one who owns significant, influential media assets.

Is there a connection, or is this all just a curious coincidence?

Inquiring minds want to know...

 

[Tslynk67]

It used to be forbidden to announce publicly when you 'Ignore' others.
I agree with that policy, though it doesn't seem to be enforced anymore.
I find this type of comments so distasteful, that I've started blocking anyone that proclaims it.
Hence:
1. I put you on 'Ignore' and
2. I hope to provoke moderator's action that would ban you and I both, for the betterment of this board.
@AudubonB

I have nobody on ignore, but I have to say that there were some foul and deplorable comments from three or four people here last Friday. So I have sympathy with anyone using the feature and no problem with it being announced.

 

[Skryll]

[...] So there does appear to be some serious bad blood between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, where Bezos was apparently the initiator and aggressor, and Jeff Bezos is also the one one who owns significant, influential media assets.

Is there a connection, or is this all just a curious coincidence?

Inquiring minds want to know...

I was wondering about the intent when I saw this article citing Forbes, trumpeting around how Elon Musk is now second most innovative person on the planet right after Jeff Bezos. I wondered who wrote that and was that just to annoy?

Also strange metric, market cap trumps innovative premium and stock market gain percent: Musk #2 On World's Most Innovative Leaders List

 

[CorneliusXX]

I don't think this is really that complicated. Let's break it down:

• Tesla's current capacity at Fremont is about 5,500 LR Model 3s per week
• Panasonic/GF1 is running 10 battery cell lines to produce those cells
  
• Fremont will have Model 3 capacity of 8,000 / wk by the end of Q4 2018
• Panasonc/GF1 will have 3 new battery cell lines running by the end of 2018
• that's 30% more cells in packs 2/3rds the size, so enough for 2,500 SR packs/wk
• Telsa Grohmann Engineering is shipping those SR pack robots in Sep/Oct 2018
  
• So by Q1 2019, Tesla will have the capacity for 5.5K LR AND 2.5K SR per week
• None of those lines/robots will be idle, so that will be roughly Tesla's product mix too
• tl;dr Tesla will have 8K/wk Model 3 production capacity in Q1 2019

Initially, all SRs will go to US customers to satisfy demand while the Federal EV tax credit is in effect. Overseas deliveries will begin in 2019 Q1 as US demand for LR Model 3s reaches a steady state and the EV credit is reduced.

AWD and Performance Model 3 portions of LR production continue to pad Model 3 GMs while front motor production is scaled up, but never limiting demand for total cars sold.

Rinse and repeat with Model Y program beginning with the big reveal in March 2019. Then GF3/ Shanghai in 2020. Grohmann is going to be hopping. As will TSLA.

Cheers!

This is the wrong way to look at it.

We should start with the limiting factor of production and working out what is the most profitable product mix from there. From my understanding it is battery cells. Using your numbers, they should be able to produce 5,500 x 1.3 = 7,150 LR vehicles. If this is more profitable than your scenario then they shouldn't produce SR M3s until demand for higher margin vehicles is sated.

 

[wipster]

BTW., here's a new article from @ZachShahan over at CleanTechnica:

Is Business Insider Searching For The Truth On Tesla? #Pravduh #RealityCheck | CleanTechnica

Which documents the relentless, systematic negativity of Business Insider against Tesla and Elon Musk in particular, which seems to go way beyond the 'they are doing it for the clicks' modus operandi of third tier business media rags.

BTW., there's a curious coincidence from 2013, when Jeff Bezos invested in Business Insider:

JEFF BEZOS INVESTS IN BUSINESS INSIDER [Full Internal Memo]

I don't know what his current stake in BI is, but there's more:

• Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post, which was one of the main FUD sources against SpaceX, back when it still made some sense to lie and mislead about SpaceX.
  
• The same Jeff Bezos who is also running a competing rocket launch company, Blue Origin.
• See: "SpaceX vs. Blue Origin: The bickering titans of new space", and also this Reddit post on /r/spacex discussing it, for more background.
  
• Blue Origin's key asset and intellectual property is the new BE-4 rocket engine (rocket engines are about 80% of the complexity and risk of a new rocket), which was designed and built by ex SpaceX engineers who were poached, when Blue Origin hired almost every Raptor engineer from SpaceX with irresistible offers.
• That incident set back SpaceX's Raptor effort, which is key to SpaceX's next gen launch system, by years.
  
• Interesting SpaceX's Raptor design uses a unique methane fueled full-flow combustion design never used before by any other rocket company. Which design BE-4 ended up using too.
• There are persistent rumors that when the poaching happened an email filter went into effect at SpaceX that would block the poaching efforts of Blue Origin. In the Reddit discussion: "SpaceX had to block emails which include the phrase Blue Origin because they mercilessly headhunted engineers from the Raptor development team. Long time before SpaceX and BO share a toothbrush IMO."

So there does appear to be some serious bad blood between Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk, where Bezos was apparently the initiator and aggressor, and Jeff Bezos is also the one one who owns significant, influential media assets.

Is there a connection, or is this all just a curious coincidence?

Inquiring minds want to know...

Now I expect Bezos to either buy or start selling a Tesla competitor...

 

[Fact Checking]

The Verge has more.

“Several weeks ago, I announced to my team that I would be leaving Tesla because I had the chance to take a CFO role at another company,” McAnear said in a statement to The Verge. “I’ve truly loved my time at Tesla, and I have great respect for my colleagues and the work they do, but this was simply an opportunity I couldn’t pass up. Any other speculation as to why I’ve left is simply inaccurate. I’ve been working with the team to ensure a smooth transition prior to my last day on October 7th, and a number of members of the team are stepping up to fill my role.”​

(emphasis mine.)

October 7th will be just a couple of days after the Tesla Q3 production and delivery report:

• If he thinks those numbers are going to be good then October 7th would be a perfect time to leave: job well done.
• If he has any doubts about the Q3 results then October 7th would be an awkward time to leave.

So while this is pure conjecture, IMO it suggests that the Q3 delivery numbers are going to be Just Fine.

 

[HG Wells]

LAR, as in "A tutelary god or spirit associated with Vesta and the Penates as a guardian of the household by the ancient Romans?"

Yes. Elon can use a guardian angel right now. Long may he serve.

We do have a ship leaving Vesta (asteroid) on a trip to the L2 Lagrange point near Earth tomorrow.
It's coming in to pick up a headlight assembly for that roadster Elon sent. We dinged it up last week.

Perhaps LAR refers to Lagrange Axis Rondevu ?

Martian High Comand

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is the wrong way to look at it.

We should start with the limiting factor of production and working out what is the most profitable product mix from there. From my understanding it is battery cells. Using your numbers, they should be able to produce 5,500 x 1.3 = 7,150 LR vehicles. If this is more profitable than your scenario then they shouldn't produce SR M3s until demand for higher margin vehicles is sated.

Those production choices were made at least 6 months ago, and the equipment has been ordered, paid for, and is being shipped and installed as we speak. They're not going to undo that now, nor do they have the ready ability to change the product ratios. We have imperfect, outsider knowledge of their plans. But whatever their plans are, that ship is leaving port right now. All aboard!

But examine again your assumptions on gross margins and the product mix. With EAP+FSD, a Model 3 SR gets a bonus $9K in gross margin, since there is zero incremental cost to enabling a feature already present in software. So with 2.5K Model 3 SRs, what does the take rate need to be on EAP/FSD before the SR is more profitable than the LR, due to the lower production cost of the battery?

Personally, I'm confident Tesla's new AI chip will make FSD much more popular, and further, that Tesla know much better than I what it needs to do to maximize profits in the long run.

 

[TradingInvest]

I am not predicting TSLA will break $300 again, but if TSLA does get below $300, the next good entry is $265.

If your size is more than your risk appetite can tolerate, you will need a stop loss order, at least for the newly purchased shares.

This is a post I made two weeks ago while the stock was above $300. Technical indicators do work. I guess those who purchased on margin at $295, $290, $280 didn't work well.

Don't sell covered Calls near the bottom, because after rally, the buyer could gain a lot on those and leave you empty handed.

If you got in correctly based on valuation and technical indicators, don't rush to sell for a few dollars. Try to estimate the next best selling point.

Tesla has very low risk at this level. If you bought with free cash, you probably can hold the shares for another 10 years. Meanwhile, accumulate cash for the next buy point. If you bought with high margin, then you need to watch closely. You don't want to become a victim of stock manipulators.

I will post it if I see a possible sell point for these trading shares. My investment shares will stay as long as Elon holds his shares. I think he plans to hold at least 15 years.

 

[Fact Checking]

Now I expect Bezos to either buy or start selling a Tesla competitor...

Not impossible, but automotive is not Amazon's core competency.

I believe we have to look at the even wider historic and personal context and background: to both Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk their space companies are their real obsessions:

• We all know Elon's obsession about interplanetary travel and colonizing space, Mars in particular.
• Bezos is a space geek too: "While at Princeton, [Jeff Bezos] [...] was the president of the Princeton chapter of the Students for the Exploration and Development of Space"
• I cannot find the quote, but Jeff Bezos said in the past that he is willing to put effectively unlimited funds into Blue Origin. His obsession about space is real and genuine.

So I think the Tesla media reporting distortion and negative bias phenomenon @ZachShahan documented could in part be the opening skirmishes of a nasty proxy war for space.

SpaceX as a private company and as an amazing success story is much harder to attack - so Tesla gets attacked as a "soft target", with plenty of collateral damage. The shorts and Wall Street might be helping, but Business Insider's motivation to attack Tesla systematically could also stem from its ownership structure I believe.

Both Jeff and Elon are thinking big. Really big. Very, very big:

Which competition I totally support, I only wish Bezos would stop fighting dirty ...

(Assuming I'm right, which I might not be.)

 

[SpaceCash]

Outstanding! Thanks for the info. The ones I have visited...not so great. Here they did a $250k remodel of a former paint store for the delivery and service center. Nowhere near enough parking without annoying the other tenants in the center. Sales showroom is 5 miles away in a high-end outdoor mall next to an Apple store. On a test drive, it takes about 5-10 mins just to get out of the center since Tesla is at the very back. Vacant dealerships on major highways with easy freeway access make a lot more sense.

How the heck would you know what they spent on the remodel?
You wouldn't. Everything you post is FUD. Nobody is fooled by your feigned friendliness and exuberance. Kick rocks my guy