TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[tivoboy]

They get sold at Salvage auctions.

Usually to junk yards to sell for parts.

Or crazy guys that want to rebuild them in their back yards to make them road worthy again.

they definitely get assigned a salvage title only. Some people have harvested salvage title Model S for the battery, they break them up into the respective chunks and use them for home battery backup.

There is a lot of rich value items that can be salvaged that can be validated in good working order and re-purposed for re-use.

Back seats, belts, carpet, stalk items, external light lenses, lights, bulbs, some cable harnesses, mats, 12V battery, tires, wheels even, rear quarter panels - very dependent and often require rework, window seals, key. ;-)

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Then a Wall St analyst released a note to clients saying 'it can't last'.

Also, look out for a CNBC headline about smoke at the factory. A few paragraphs in they’ll reveal that there wasn’t an actual fire, just some burnt microwave popcorn in an employee break room.

 

[beachbum77]

there is a hysterically funny comment that you left out from the article
"...Tesla’s Q3 delivery numbers will be better than many expect and I fear that up to $650 million of unexpected regulatory credits will give rise to paroxysms of ecstasy among Tesla longs who will undoubtedly bid the stock price to unsustainable nosebleed highs..."

Precisely what I am counting on with my Oct 5 calls. So from his keyboard to God's ear!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don’t think they’ll be able to stop it.

They showed us Tue Sep 18 what they're able to do. They dumped a million shares in a minute taking $12 off the SP almost instantly, and $24 in 15 min. And they could keep going if they didn't want to trigger the short selling uptick rule. These are some big actors, with deep deep pockets. At least $300M for a mad minute, and more.

The only freedom for Tesla is financial freedom from Wall Street capital.

Cheers!

 

[Intl Professor]

I understand the need to crash cars for testing but why use the sport wheels for FFS?

I'm paying for that!

Not helping the bottom line here.

You've heard of people who want a good looking corpse, haven't you? (Since we're into gallows humor here today.)

 

[BenPrice]

They showed us Tue Sep 18 what they're able to do. They dumped a million shares in a minute taking $12 off the SP almost instantly, and $24 in 15 min. And they could keep going if they didn't want to trigger the short selling uptick rule. These are some big actors, with deep deep pockets. At least $300M for a mad minute, and more.

View attachment 336735

The only freedom for Tesla is financial freedom from Wall Street capital.

Cheers!

I dunno.

If I had a bloomie and was good enough to do this full time I’d have dumped the second I saw Musk and DOJ. Easy money.

People are at the edge of their seats for Tesla. Lots of them that manage lots of money.

 

[Ludalicious]

anyone else notice the after hours spike? Anyone know why? Just a minor spike @7:15

 

[Etna]

Also, look out for a CNBC headline about smoke at the factory. A few paragraphs in they’ll reveal that there wasn’t an actual fire, just some burnt microwave popcorn in an employee break room.

No no no, that is not how CNBC operates. Here goes:

First they will say that according to two people familiar with the matter, where there is smoke there is fire.

They will also add that Tesla has not responded to inquiries, kicking the fear factor up a notch.

Then they leave it simmer (on the front burner obviously) for a few hours while the stock tanks.

When the two people familiar with the matter leave the room with their cash bags, CNBC publishes an updated story with Tesla stating that it was a burnt microwave popcorn, move the story to the backburner and then start a new front page news that Tesla is breaking its employees in a special room.

 

[Mader Levap]

It still pays off to know what is floating out there on the internet, even if it seems a waste of time. Blinders just limit your peripheral vision. If you would not drive that way why invest that way?

I find your "don't select, don't check, don't cull, just swallow everything, maybe you will fall for crap like mine" cute. It is not first time you argue for reading uncritically literally everything about given subject.

It is pretty much most direct evidence that you are peddler of BS. Only someone like that would argue lack of any filter while gathering any kind of information is good thing.

Sputnik News? We're now linking to Russian news sources in this thread?

To be fair, some American news sources that are linked and cited often here seem to be on similar level, so why not?

Only a tiny piece of dark cloud on the otherwise clear sky is his retweet of Bob L...

You seem to not understand it was not endorsement. Quite opposite. It was "look what this fool is saying!" retweet.

 

[BenPrice]

Tesla received 1,124 new Model 3 Performance orders in just two weeks

Thoughts?

Fred has 3 or 4 articles the past month that have the same flavor. Curious.

 

[neroden]

Just bought 50 more, almost have a thousand now!

What a ridiculous drop both today and the big drop earlier this week. All the FUD articles now are so unsubstantial. Elon is in a good mood which means deliveries this month are going to be spectacular!

Tesla is going to have a $100b market cap some time in 2019. I have never been so sure about anything in my life. The fundamentals have just two aspects. 1. Is there demand? 2. Can they make margin?

There is lots of evidence of 20-30% average margin on the model 3, and demand is going to be spectacular.

Demand is off the hook, certainly. At the moment, they need to figure out how to finalize deliveries better. People are getting their deliveries postponed because Tesla hasn't managed to get them the information they need for loans. We're seeing a lot of this:

 

[Artful Dodger]

anyone else notice the after hours spike? Anyone know why? Just a minor spike @7:15

Was actually a dip to about $297.40 that lasted around 40 min. Likely some market makers trading shares to balance their holdings after customer trading net trades.

 

[neroden]

Something of interest today was the earlier action in the $285 and $290 Oct 5 calls. Lots of contracts were closed during the spike to $305.

Donn, it's the gambling traders you talked about -- the ones who never hold options to expiration and always close their positions.

Not my style, but if you are that sort of gambler, you would close early.

 

[neroden]

Is Tesla Counting On A Billion Dollar Regulatory Credit Bonanza? - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

John Petersen:

That's extraordinary. It sounds to me like he's made up a rationalization for getting out of his doomed short position, so that he has an excuse. I don't find it convincing, and he's still irrationally bearish on the company's future. Though it is possible that regulatory credits will be worth more than we're expecting, we know that Musk does not make any corporate decisions based on them -- they are "gravy" if they are worth anything.

 

[neroden]

Nah, he says its just a "temporary" setback of "apparent" but "unsustainable" "profitability". After all, he *promises* to go back to shorting (just as soon as the stock goes down so he can afford to do it).

Which I betcha he won't do. He's saying this so that all the short-sellers who follow him won't blame him for the bad advice they took. He's now going to quietly walk away. When you're running a scam, know when to quit...

 

[AZRI11]

Only lost one middle finger and his two adjacent brothers. Partial not full amputation. Lost at the last joint.

Saw a co-worker lose same three fingers when I worked in a factory almost 30 years ago, about an inch off each finger. I was in shock and he almost calm, no screams except from me.

 

[MXWing]

What is frustrating short term is we are still red despite Tesla aced its most important crash testing yet. We are talking about a hundred thousand cars impacted by the results and hundreds of thousands more to come.

We would have gotten buried if the scores was less than perfect.

Weird how the market for TSLA is mum on great news and gets obliterated over stupid *sugar* like a spat with a guy in the UK.

 

[neroden]

I think that's unlikely. That would imply the groups trying to destroy Tesla stop believing they can do so by cutting off Tesla's access to capital. Two big events will have to happen before these groups give up on their thesis:

1. Tesla pays off it's 2018 Q4 and 2019 Q1 bonds with cash generated from operations ('not just refi-ing' as Elon stated is his intention)
2. Tesla begins production at GF3/Shanghai without accessing the capital markets (possibly 2021 H1)

When these two events make it undeniable that Tesla has successfully slipped the leash of Wall Street, then the SP will start to reflect its intrinsic value based on revenue. By then I expect Tesla will be a $250B company.

I have been saying for a while that paying off the 2019 March bond maturity will cause most of the people trying to starve Tesla of capital to fold.

I don't think they'll wait until the Chinese gigafactory is funded; it'll be obvious enough that it will be. Based on the registered capital statement and luvb2b's latest model for Q3/Q4 cash flow, we can expect Tesla to put in a little over one quarter's free cash flow in equity into the Chinese factory, and apparently the local Chinese bank loans are already lined up. This is going to be pretty obvious after Q4 numbers are published.

If it isn't Q4, they'll give up after the Q1 numbers -- where the lease accounting is straightened out by revisions to GAAP, so that the essential profitability of the SolarCity operations finally becomes clear.

 

[neroden]

What is frustrating short term is we are still red despite Tesla aced its most important crash testing yet.

I'm debating whether I can generate some more "dry powder" and considering leveraging up a little (as you know I'm almost unleveraged). The serious news has been unrelentingly positive and this drop is extremely nonsense-based.

 

[neroden]

I guess I should think about what to do if TSLA stock actually does go to unsustainable nosebleed levels. With short-sellers folding due to margin calls, the stock manipulators like Left and Chanos folding because Tesla doesn't need capital from Wall Street ever again, and the "shock" to Wall Street of large profits and free cash flow, it actually could skyrocket to unsustainable levels -- for instance, if it's over $3000 before next June, I would suspect the price had gotten ahead of itself.

I would normally just hold, bubt I should think about this possibility seriously. Selling out of GOOG in Nov 2007 and buying back in Nov 2008 would have been a worthwhile move; so would selling NFLX in Jul 2011 and buying back in Dec 2011.