They "forgot" to mention guidance for Q3/Q4 when talking about unprofitability. Everybody knows that it's completely irrelevant...
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They "forgot" to mention guidance for Q3/Q4 when talking about unprofitability. Everybody knows that it's completely irrelevant...
Well, to be fair, somehow they mention it in a very neutral way: "Mr. Musk promises investors that Tesla is going to start making more cars and profits any day now, but that’s wishful thinking". Everybody reading it would clearly understand Elon and Deepak have reiterated the profit guidance for Q3/Q4 time and again...
ZachF
Active Member
The Bloomberg tracker has 94,600 M3s made so far with 41,000 at Q2, that's 53,600 made so far in Q3 with one week left to go. I think production of 57,000 is likely which is a solid beat of their 50-55k guidance. I think Tesla finally lowballed their guidance to make an easy beat (usually the opposite of what Elon does)
I wouldn't be surprised if Q3 M3 sales hit over 60k. (sales are supposed to be higer than production this quarter)
I think October will be when the reality of Tesla's turnaround starts to hit the market.
Soon we will get Q3 sales, where I think guidance has been purposely lowballed.
In a couple weeks we will get the 100,000th M3 built.
I also think Q3 will be a big surprise to the upside.
All this will be occurring when sentiment on the stock is low. Right now it's like a spring getting compressed harder and harder.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
As context: today is the biggest options day of 2018, with huge amounts of short bets expiring worthless with the close of trading.
350,000+ short (put) options, 200,000+ of which are deep out of the money.
Notional value: 35 million shares, ~10 billion dollars.
I expect Dana Hull @ Bloomberg and David Gelles @ NYT working overtime all day to earn their keep.
ZachF
Active Member
I think the ZEV credits will be used to pay off the bonds due in Q1-2019.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
An umbrella is a lot more valuable in Seattle than in the Sahara
Actually, if you don't have enough sun protection then an umbrella can be a life saver in the Sahara.
(Pretty small addressable market though.)
William D.Cohan. Special correspondent for Vanity Fair.
Got me. Guess he is an authority on electric cars and their viability. No, seriously...,
An umbrella is a lot more valuable in Seattle than in the Sahara
Do you know what "umbrella" means?
c. 1600, first attested in Donne's letters, from Italian ombrello, from Late Latin umbrella, altered (by influence of umbra) from Latin umbella "sunshade, parasol," diminutive of umbra "shade, shadow"
Ever heard of somebody dying of rainstroke?
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Shortsville Times: U.S. government agency keeps crashing their Tesla Model 3's, Autopilot malfunction?
According to two anonymous whistleblowers, one of the largest U.S. federal agencies has suffered crashes with at least three separate Model 3's, which is a damning indictment of the safety of Tesla's Model 3. We could not independently confirm whether Autopilot was engaged. We are not disclosing the name of the affected agency, to protect the identity of our sources.
In a letter to investors, Tesla investors Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel and Andrew Left have requested Tesla to immediately recall all Tesla Model 3, S, X and Roadster vehicles, and called for Tesla to immediately GAAP account the expected large expenses of hundreds of millions of dollars before the end of Q3. They also reiterated their call for the immediate resignation of Elon Musk as the CEO of Tesla.
Industry experts Dana Hull and David Gelles called the images of the crashed Model 3's "deeply troubling", and estimated that potential costs and long term liabilities could go into the billions of dollars.
Copyright (c) 2018, The Shortsville Times, Chief Editor @HG Wells.
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X Fan
Active Member
Thanks for analysis.....one area the shorts will focus on in Q3 is backlog replacement.....do you have a sense of where Tesla stands with that? When would that be officially reported, Q3 financials?
X Fan
Active Member
Seriously?? It is in the print paper. Get a grip.
Here is my top secret insider link:
Opinion | Tesla’s Biggest Problem Isn’t Elon Musk
An umbrella is a lot more valuable in Seattle than in the Sahara
Unless you are an albino, ever reminding us of the "corner" or "edge" possibility.
davecolene0606
Member
Messr Cohan has been around WS for a while as a merger and aquisition guy and other stuff. He wrote some books on WS scam stuff (2008, Bear Stearns etc). So his views are definitively scewed by WS thinking, which means he cannot see the forest that is aggressively growing around Tesla.
It appears to me that many WS types are somewhat ego driven by settling on the notion that all they learned in their business schools and practices of wealth transfer (not wealth creation) on WS are the only truth. As a result, they are incapable of wrapping their heads around a company not being hostage to their services and thought regime.
They clearly advised Kodak to ignore digital photography, advised Apple it was time for Steve to go and Motorola/Ericsson that smart phones were a gimmick not to mention the numerous mergers that were supposed to have miracle outcomes due to synergies (and shitloads of fees generated) only to advise on splitting em back up later... same play book rinse repeat. Most of these guys are nothing but technicians and spend any fleeting ounce of original thinking on making *sugar* up to skirt rules made by their buddies in Congress and the SEC.
All this because the numbers on their spreadsheets add up the way the college textbook said it should, so it has to be right!?... right!?
As was said earlier....
Another day at the shop
Fire Away
It appears to me that many WS types are somewhat ego driven by settling on the notion that all they learned in their business schools and practices of wealth transfer (not wealth creation) on WS are the only truth. As a result, they are incapable of wrapping their heads around a company not being hostage to their services and thought regime.
They clearly advised Kodak to ignore digital photography, advised Apple it was time for Steve to go and Motorola/Ericsson that smart phones were a gimmick not to mention the numerous mergers that were supposed to have miracle outcomes due to synergies (and shitloads of fees generated) only to advise on splitting em back up later... same play book rinse repeat. Most of these guys are nothing but technicians and spend any fleeting ounce of original thinking on making *sugar* up to skirt rules made by their buddies in Congress and the SEC.
All this because the numbers on their spreadsheets add up the way the college textbook said it should, so it has to be right!?... right!?
As was said earlier....
Another day at the shop
Fire Away
This sounds like rebalancing of a portfolio that suddenly got very skewed (because holdings of one paper suddenly increases a lot in value), so I think that is something even I could manage.
Timing the market in any other fashion is out of my league.
dqd88
Member
I too was fearful that Elon was losing it, but I think he'll be fine. Glad I wasn't the only one thinking this.
I do wish he'd take a 2 week vacation
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Hating that I had to liquidate (I knew I would be.)
This stock is going to explode in the very near future. Pulling for all you long term bulls that have stayed the course and demonstrated your belief in the company. Hope you all get filthy rich at the expense of all the Tesla haters out there!
San
This stock is going to explode in the very near future. Pulling for all you long term bulls that have stayed the course and demonstrated your belief in the company. Hope you all get filthy rich at the expense of all the Tesla haters out there!
San
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Wicked Witch of the West. AKA TSLAQ. Their thesis is all wet.
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