TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

This particular slide looks different. Compare against NASDAQ and AAPL. Same price action.

 

[cheshire cat]

Do you know what "umbrella" means?

c. 1600, first attested in Donne's letters, from Italian ombrello, from Late Latin umbrella, altered (by influence of umbra) from Latin umbella "sunshade, parasol," diminutive of umbra "shade, shadow"

Ever heard of somebody dying of rainstroke?

Even water has an LD.50

 

[brian45011]

[QUOTE="Reciprocity, post: 3052446, member: 58331 If it takes some Zev credits to get there, then so bit it. Though I do not think they count as GAAP profits?[/QUOTE]

The filings are instructive:

Revenue & Gross Margin
Three Months Ended Change
June 30, 2018 March 31,2018 June 30, 2017 QoQ YoY
Automotive revenue ($000) $ 3,357,681 $ 2,735,317 $ 2,286,616 23% 47%

Automotive gross margin–GAAP 20.6% 19.7% 27.9% 86 bp 735 bp

Automotive gross margin non-GAAP 21.0% 18.8% 25.0% 220 bp 400 bp
excluding SBC and ZEV credit

 

[HG Wells]

InsideEVs on Twitter

Yesterday InsideEV's said
Those @Tesla #Model3 numbers being tossed around right now seem a wee bit low. Might want to check back in with us sometime tomorrow. We see some BIG news on the horizon.

Any Updates ?

 

[PaulRocket]

InsideEVs on Twitter

Yesterday InsideEV's said
Those @Tesla #Model3 numbers being tossed around right now seem a wee bit low. Might want to check back in with us sometime tomorrow. We see some BIG news on the horizon.

Any Updates ?

Here you go:
It seems @Tesla has readied some 7,000 #Model3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days.
Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza

 

[Artful Dodger]

InsideEVs on Twitter

Yesterday InsideEV's said
Those @Tesla #Model3 numbers being tossed around right now seem a wee bit low. Might want to check back in with us sometime tomorrow. We see some BIG news on the horizon.

Any Updates ?

Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza

Now, for what we consider to be potentially huge news.

A trusted source that works at Tesla and requested to remain anonymous contacted InsideEVs with some inside information. Makes sense right? Anyhow, they shared that Tesla Service Center techs are being pulled from their usual duties over the next week or so to help with deliveries. Apparently, Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days. We hear that the specific goal is for the automaker to deliver 1,000 Model 3s each day for the last week of the month in the Bay Area alone

Wait … there seems to be even more big news.

In addition to the above reports – and possibly as an accelerated path toward profitability – we were also told that Tesla is prepping thousands of Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles for delivery in China. Not surprisingly, most of the S and X cars appear to be 100Ds, though the Model 3s are primarily single-motor.​

 

[Fact Checking]

Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza

"Now, for what we consider to be potentially huge news."

"A trusted source that works at Tesla and requested to remain anonymous contacted InsideEVs with some inside information. Makes sense right? Anyhow, they shared that Tesla Service Center techs are being pulled from their usual duties over the next week or so to help with deliveries. Apparently, Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days. We hear that the specific goal is for the automaker to deliver 1,000 Model 3s each day for the last week of the month in the Bay Area alone"​

Wow!

But wait:

"Wait … there seems to be even more big news."

"In addition to the above reports – and possibly as an accelerated path toward profitability – we were also told that Tesla is prepping thousands of Model S, Model X, and Model 3 vehicles for delivery in China. Not surprisingly, most of the S and X cars appear to be 100Ds, though the Model 3s are primarily single-motor."

"The source revealed that these Model S and X vehicles are mostly low-mileage loaners or recent trade-ins from people that have now taken delivery of a Model 3. Reportedly, they have already been sold to Chinese customers. While they may not count as deliveries, it surely looks like a monumental source of additional revenue. Is this an effort by Tesla to double down toward a goal of profitability? Not only is Tesla delivering a ton of Model 3s in the U.S. and some in Canada, but also moving high-priced used S and X vehicles out at the same time. The Tesla employee said that the Model 3 vehicles going to China are to be used as showroom vehicles and/or to train Service Center personnel."​

I.e. Tesla is aggressively clearing out inventory - which should help a lot with Q3 numbers! Both the Model 3 "delivery push" and the Model S/X "inventory push" will directly improve both cash flow and net income (EPS, profitability).

There's one open question: if the S+X's are not in China yet, they won't arrive there by the end of Q3 - but they will probably count as 'vehicles in transit' and boost Q4.

It seems very likely to me at this point that Tesla will achieve profitability and positive cash flow in Q3, they are doing all the smart moves to maximize Q3 financials.

BTW., could there be a tariff exemption for used vehicle imports into China?

 

[Xenius]

Wicked Witch of the West. AKA TSLAQ. Their thesis is all wet.

Funny man! Is your profile pic Limerick?

 

[Artful Dodger]

In case you missed it, reports says Tesla prepping Model 3 for export to China

Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza

 

[Artful Dodger]

... and we're GREEN red

 

[KarenRei]

How can they be selling Model 3s in China? Did they create "Chinaspec" Model 3s without anyone noticing? Including dual-charge-ports under the cover? Or maybe these, too, are "used Model 3s" (such as from people who upgraded to AWD/P), going to customers who don't care so much about whether they're "Chinaspec" (aka, akin to the Europeans who have US-spec Model 3s today)?

 

[Artful Dodger]

There's one open question: if the S+X's are not in China yet, they won't arrive there by the end of Q3 - but they will probably count as 'vehicles in transit' and boost Q4.

The insideEVs story says "Reportedly, they have already been sold to Chinese customers." Slight rework will be required to change charge ports for China.

I wonder how the revenue will be accrued? Perhaps @neroden or another member knows how accounting rules work in the case?

Cheers!

 

[HopJokey]

How can they be selling Model 3s in China? Did they create "Chinaspec" Model 3s without anyone noticing? Including dual-charge-ports under the cover? Or maybe these, too, are "used Model 3s" (such as from people who upgraded to AWD/P), going to customers who don't care so much about whether they're "Chinaspec" (aka, akin to the Europeans who have US-spec Model 3s today)?

What type of differences do Chinese cars have to be versus U.S. cars? They are on the same side of the road correct?

 

[humbaba]

How can they be selling Model 3s in China? Did they create "Chinaspec" Model 3s without anyone noticing? Including dual-charge-ports under the cover? Or maybe these, too, are "used Model 3s" (such as from people who upgraded to AWD/P), going to customers who don't care so much about whether they're "Chinaspec" (aka, akin to the Europeans who have US-spec Model 3s today)?

"The Tesla employee said that the Model 3 vehicles going to China are to be used as showroom vehicles and/or to train Service Center personnel."

 

[GleanerC]

How can they be selling Model 3s in China? Did they create "Chinaspec" Model 3s without anyone noticing? Including dual-charge-ports under the cover? Or maybe these, too, are "used Model 3s" (such as from people who upgraded to AWD/P), going to customers who don't care so much about whether they're "Chinaspec" (aka, akin to the Europeans who have US-spec Model 3s today)?

I was also wondering about the charge ports for the used Model X and S vehicles that may be getting shipped. Would part of the prep work have included changing out the charge port for the Chinese market?

 

[AWDtsla]

What type of differences do Chinese cars have to be versus U.S. cars? They are on the same side of the road correct?

They have an entirely different/extra charge port in the middle of the rear fender.

 

[Fact Checking]

How can they be selling Model 3s in China? Did they create "Chinaspec" Model 3s without anyone noticing?

They are sending them to China, to be used in showrooms and for Service Center training:

"The Tesla employee said that the Model 3 vehicles going to China are to be used as showroom vehicles and/or to train Service Center personnel."​

Presumably these won't be sold to the general public and there might be limitations on how they can be used on public roads.

But this does suggest that Model 3 sales in China are imminent - they could start in Q4?

 

[MXWing]

I got an email from Seeking Alpha stating there is a mass exodus of executives at Tesla.

Is there anyone left?

I recall Tesla had 30,000 employees approximately but with all the departures, only people I can seem to confirm still left are

Elon
Jerome
JB
Franz
My bud who works at Costa Mess detail team.

My DSA seems MIA but that’s nothing new.

I guess reducing payroll by 99.999 creates a really profitable quarter?

 

[Fact Checking]

The insideEVs story says "Reportedly, they have already been sold to Chinese customers." Slight rework will be required to change charge ports for China.

I wonder how the revenue will be accrued? Perhaps @neroden or another member knows how accounting rules work in the case?

Cheers!

So my understanding is that they can only be recognized as revenue when the customer takes delivery. Payments customers made would be 'customer deposits' and would improve cash flow. Any such payments would improve Q3 results already.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What type of differences do Chinese cars have to be versus U.S. cars? They are on the same side of the road correct?

From the articles: "The Tesla employee said that the Model 3 vehicles going to China are to be used as showroom vehicles and/or to train Service Center personnel."