TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[humbaba]

While this is true - it is not as simple as that in practice.

Journalists need to make a judgement call on what arguments are "credible". Otherwise you end up giving the same weightage to Nazis as to the Holocaust survivors. When journalists start doing that - we get Trump (and Putin and Modi et al).

The problem is doubly evident in niche areas like Tesla. Journalists just don't have the basic knowledge necessary to make good judgements. They tend to just repeat what they heard or read. So depending on the "conventional wisdom" - the narrative takes on a negative bent (when positive arguments no longer "feel" credible to a journalist) and the other way round too.

It really isn't that hard to avoid the gross errors made by "journalists". Maybe I'm showing too many grey hairs. Maybe I've got rose-tinted glasses for the "good old days." But I remember a time when there were standards in writing.

It didn't stop yellow journalism, but there wasn't this notion that "critical thinking is just too hard so its not their fault they get it wrong all the time."

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is a contra-move to NASDAQ-100 and S&P500. I think somebody is buying for the $300 strike options expiry today at close.

 

[Ludalicious]

... and we're GREEN red GREEN

I haven't seen green today... but that could because my Green is seeing allot of red...

 

[dandurston]

Something to keep in mind if we ever do get a short squeeze in TSLA is how quickly it could come back down. There was a good example this week from TLRY:

While more of a brief episode of irrational exuberance than a proper short squeeze, this panic to buy can drive the same patterns. We see TLRY more than double from $120 to over $250 (with an intraday high of $300) but it is now back to $128. On hindsight it was obvious to sell at $250, but at the time everyone was probably thinking it was going to $1000. Same goes for TSLA - if it squeezes to $600 a lot of folks wouldn't sell because they would be thinking $1000 is next.

Similar exuberance and FOMO drove the temporary spike last week in Nio ($6 to $12, now back to $8.60).

So even if traders do get the long anticipated short squeeze in TSLA, there's a good chance of missing the opportunity to sell anyways. I think this highlights the wisdom of investing for the long term due to fundamental reasons, rather than hoping for a squeeze.

 

[Fact Checking]

Very much looks like MM's are gonna keep it flat all day and close just under 300 to scalp all the call buyers.

There's a juicy target of ~10,000 PUT options at $300 waiting, here's the near-the-money options straddle around $300:

 # 2018 September 21 expiry:

 PUT $280:  6,998, CALL $280:  2,754
 PUT $282:  1,113, CALL $282:    431
 PUT $285:  4,104, CALL $285:  2,691
 PUT $287:  3,381, CALL $287:    694
 PUT $290:  6,962, CALL $290:  4,123
 PUT $292:  1,337, CALL $292:  1,070
 PUT $295:  2,937, CALL $295:  3,366
 PUT $297:  1,401, CALL $297:  2,423
 PUT $300: 10,391, CALL $300:  8,876
 PUT $302:    404, CALL $302:  1,852
 PUT $305:  1,567, CALL $305:  4,608
 PUT $307:    256, CALL $307:  2,086
 PUT $310:  2,854, CALL $310:  6,599
 PUT $312:    151, CALL $312:  1,509
 PUT $315:  2,930, CALL $315:  3,796
 PUT $317:    159, CALL $317:  1,639
 PUT $320:  5,827, CALL $320:  6,583
 PUT $322:    103, CALL $322:  1,028

Those 10K PUT and 9K CALL options represent 1-1 million shares. If the market makers are different firms they could fight over $300 - or call it a truce at the end of the day.

$1m additional win/loss per dollar away from $300.

 

[SpudLime]

Shortsville Times: U.S. government agency keeps crashing their Tesla Model 3's, Autopilot malfunction?

According to two anonymous whistleblowers, one of the largest U.S. federal agencies has suffered crashes with at least three separate Model 3's, which is a damning indictment of the safety of Tesla's Model 3. We could not independently confirm whether Autopilot was engaged. We are not disclosing the name of the affected agency, to protect the identity of our sources.

In a letter to investors, Tesla investors Jim Chanos, Mark Spiegel and Andrew Left have requested Tesla to immediately recall all Tesla Model 3, S, X and Roadster vehicles, and called for Tesla to immediately GAAP account the expected large expenses of hundreds of millions of dollars before the end of Q3. They also reiterated their call for the immediate resignation of Elon Musk as the CEO of Tesla.

Industry experts Dana Hull and David Gelles called the images of the crashed Model 3's "deeply troubling", and estimated that potential costs and long term liabilities could go into the billions of dollars.

Copyright (c) 2018, The Shortsville Times, Chief Editor @HG Wells.

Can someone create a twitter account that has all of these? Between HG wells and the others making these satirical headlines, I would love to retweet them as a way to mess with the negative narrative out in the twitter verse.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Good article in the Financial Times about Tesla's head start compared to the competition.

Outline

They talk about Tesla's challenges too, but it's pretty balanced overall. Just one quote (there's more):

Early indications are that the new wave of electric vehicles, each one feted as a “Tesla killer”, falls short.

“The e-tron underscores that catching up with Tesla is more difficult than expected by many,” wrote Patrick Hummel at UBS, who noted that the car has slower acceleration and a shorter range than Tesla’s Model X SUV, its direct competitor.

Though “well made”, the car “fails to set new benchmarks in the premium EV segment, even though we consider it better than the Mercedes EQC”.

This is partly because Tesla builds its cars on a platform designed for electric cars only, while many other manufacturers adapt existing combustion engine architecture for their battery cars.​

 

[SpudLime]

Can someone create a twitter account that has all of these? Between HG wells and the others making these satirical headlines, I would love to retweet them as a way to mess with the negative narrative out in the twitter verse.

Actually I wouldnt mind creating the account and just copy/pasting what the members post here. I would just need their permission to put it in the twitter feed.

 

[TradingInvest]

My friend who was supposed to get his Model 3 early next month is picking it up this weekend.

My friends are switching to Tesla cars. Two got delivery in the past 3 weeks, another one will go check it out tomorrow, might drive one off the lot if there is a new car that's not claimed. Two other friends said they will switch soon. These are Mercedes, Audi, BMW buyers in the past. I don't want to mislead. The demand is not through the roof yet. I think majority people either don't know the car, or think they can't afford these expensive cars.

If the general public in the US understand that a $50k Model 3 really costs $33k after tax rebate and gasoline savings, Tesla wouldn't be able to handle the demand.

 

[Fact Checking]

Actually I wouldnt mind creating the account and just copy/pasting what the members post here. I would just need their permission to put it in the twitter feed.

Sure, feel free to post my content!

 

[SpaceCash]

Actually I wouldnt mind creating the account and just copy/pasting what the members post here. I would just need their permission to put it in the twitter feed.

In the event that I post anything compelling, repost me all you want, wherever you want.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

If the general public in the US understand that a $50k Model 3 really costs $33k after tax rebate and gasoline savings, Tesla wouldn't be able to handle the demand.

The general public in the US isn't very smart. Most of them will have be forced to give up gas while kicking and screaming. Count on it.

 

[MXWing]

Interesting that only shorts want the $35,000 Model 3.

So Tesla shouldn't manufacture these until the bears tell Tesla not to do it?

Funny stuff...

 

[humbaba]

I was thinking of starting a "Tesla Death Watch" inspired in part by the Apple death watch. In a quick review to see if there already exists such a thing I stumbled on this golden nugget from 2008:

"I still believe Tesla doesn’t have a hope in Hell of staying in business. But it will take a while for that to play out. We’ll continue to cover Tesla as and when the situation merits. But TTAC won’t be hovering over Elon Musk’s minions vulture-like, waiting for the latest insult or injury. I made my point: they’re a company fuelled by tree-hugging hype rather than solid engineering or accountability."

A good thing for their dignity they stopped nine years ago....

 

[Iceman]

Interesting that only shorts want the $35,000 Model 3.

So Tesla shouldn't manufacture these until the bears tell Tesla not to do it?

The day the shorts start saying it´s crazy of Tesla to make a 35K version with the more expensive version there (they´ll call it a suicide on the alter of Elon´s empty promises) to sell is the day Tesla starts selling it. And it will fuel the neverending FUD.

And then we win.

 

[Tslynk67]

Nice video to cheer you all up while the SP misbehaves...

chris collins on Twitter

Ha, Elon just re-tweeted

 

[Tslynk67]

So are we hoping for a $299.99 or a $300.01 close? Which one burns the shorts the most?

I know there was some discussion up-thread, but I'm too tired to go looking...

 

[SpaceCash]

Ha, Elon just re-tweeted

niiiiice, 8,476 views right now, let's see how fast that number goes to DA MOON

Edit: already 14k

 

[dgodfrey]

Actually I wouldnt mind creating the account and just copy/pasting what the members post here. I would just need their permission to put it in the twitter feed.

I enjoy reading those and part of what makes them so damn funny is that they are not really that far fetched from what the short minions actually spew. We have the advantage of being better informed about what's true and have motivation to separate fact from fiction. Therefore, we see the subtleties that the average consumer so far seems to miss either intentionally or just due to ignorance. The risk of posting those should probably be prefaced as satire in very conspicuous terms unfortunately, otherwise it's just more crap we need to deflect at dinner parties. I'm getting very jaded by the level of stupid comments, e-mails and observations my non-Tesla circle make and they really think they're making a good point. Extremely frustrating and these people aren't stupid by nature.

 

[wipster]

Boy the SA FUDsters are putting out all sorts of crap today... they must really be worried about something...

What can it be now?

(Sorry for putting that song in your head for the whole weekend, but I am half Aussie... LOL!)