Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
TSLA market action nearly mirroring the NASDAQ-100 today.

NASDAQ-100.2018-09-20.png
 
Seriously?? It is in the print paper. Get a grip.

Here is my top secret insider link:

Opinion | Tesla’s Biggest Problem Isn’t Elon Musk

dr;tl? I read it so YOU didn't have to...

Here's a key paragraph of total FUD - split it up into soundbites and each one is factually correct, but amazing how you can twist things when you string them all together into sentences:

From January to June of this year, Tesla generated revenues of $7.4 billion, but it had an operating loss of $1.7 billion, burning through its cash on hand. It has $2.2 billion left, most of which will be needed to cover operating losses. Romit Shah, a research analyst at Nomura Instinet and once one of Tesla’s biggest boosters, reversed course last week, calling the company “no longer investable.”
 
If it was "blowing past you" more likely my wife was driving ;) Then again, she usually doesn't honk at others, she prefers "hand signals". :D

If you ever care to grab a beer/water/drink/whatever and talk with another TMC member, send me a PM!
Funny. Well versed on that hand signal too! It's also the state bird I believe!

Will keep the offer in mind, thanks! Usually tethered to the terminal 12 hours a day so I don't get out much. When I do on the weekends, it's for driving Miss Daisy. No, that's not the name of the MS, but you know, her. :)
 
dr;tl? I read it so YOU didn't have to...

Here's a key paragraph of total FUD - split it up into soundbites and each one is factually correct, but amazing how you can twist things when you string them all together into sentences:

From January to June of this year, Tesla generated revenues of $7.4 billion, but it had an operating loss of $1.7 billion, burning through its cash on hand. It has $2.2 billion left, most of which will be needed to cover operating losses. Romit Shah, a research analyst at Nomura Instinet and once one of Tesla’s biggest boosters, reversed course last week, calling the company “no longer investable.”

Yeah, actually a key point there is NOT factually correct, because the idiot who wrote it makes the unfounded ASS-umption that Tesla will have operating losses in Q3. Anyone who knows the utter simplistic basics of business economics 101 knows that this is false, but the loser who wrote the opinion piece doesn't, because he has never had a brain. It's embarassing that anyone even considered hiring Mr. Cohan for a job loosely related to business. Maybe he would be OK in a ditch-digging job, or as an artist, where you aren't required to have any business sense.

William Cohan claims to have been a former investment banker and claims to have written four books about Wall Street. I have no reason to doubt these claims. It is, however, apparent that he does not understand the first thing about business, is completely incompetent at evaluating whether a business is creditworthy, is completely incompetent at evaluating investments, and is generally a total ignoramus when it comes to business. This raises the question of how he ever had his career, since he was evidently incompetent at it -- perhaps he was an "old-boy network" hire who "failed upwards" like George W. Bush or Donald Trump. Or maybe he was just a smarmy scam artist, like Paul Ryan. I certainly wouldn't read his books after he made such a basic, freshman-level analytical error as *ignoring economies of scale*.
 
Last edited:
dr;tl? I read it so YOU didn't have to...

Here's a key paragraph of total FUD - split it up into soundbites and each one is factually correct, but amazing how you can twist things when you string them all together into sentences:

From January to June of this year, Tesla generated revenues of $7.4 billion, but it had an operating loss of $1.7 billion, burning through its cash on hand. It has $2.2 billion left, most of which will be needed to cover operating losses. Romit Shah, a research analyst at Nomura Instinet and once one of Tesla’s biggest boosters, reversed course last week, calling the company “no longer investable.”

It's the classic "omission of data" fallacy, and it's killer whether deliberate or accidental. If you only report "bad points", and not "good points", you can lead people to an entirely fallacious conclusion.

A classic example was in the leadup to the Challenger disaster. One of the docs being reviewed to decide whether it was safe to launch or not was this graph of O-ring failures vs. temperature:

image06.png


They looked at that and thought... well, there's no really obvious trend. Some of the engineers had some suspicions that there was something off with the graph, but couldn't put their finger on it.

The problem? They were only reporting the negative cases. All of the positive cases (no O-ring failures) were left out. Here's what you see when you include them:

image02.png


All of the sudden there's a very clear trend. There had never been a launch with no O-ring failures below 65°F. And the colder you get, the worse it got. The act of only reporting failures completely changed the view from what you see when reporting both the good cases and the bad.

The exact same thing applies to news coverage of companies like Tesla. There's thousands upon thousands of pieces of news a reporter can mention when writing an article. If they only include datapoints / arguments that support one particular viewpoint (take your pick of negative FUD), and completely omit the datapoints that contradict it (Tesla's fundamentals are totally rocking right now), you can leave your readers with a twisted viewpoint. Which is exactly the opposite of what journalism is supposed to do.
 
William Cohan claims to have been a former investment banker and claims to have written four books about Wall Street. I

None of those books could have involved any math. Or accounting. Or basic business logic for that matter.

Here are my guesses as to what the book titles are:
  • "How to lose money in a bull market, for Dummies"
  • "Why I chose GM over Tesla, and other big investment mistakes in life"
  • "The art of only seeing trees in a forest"
  • And my favorite one: "Confessions of a failed investment banker"
Am I close?
 
None of those books could have involved any math. Or accounting. Or basic business logic for that matter.

Here are my guesses as to what the book titles are:
  • "How to lose money in a bull market, for Dummies"
  • "Why I chose GM over Tesla, and other big investment mistakes in life"
  • "The art of only seeing trees in a forest"
  • And my favorite one: "Confessions of a failed investment banker"
Am I close?

well...

"House of Cards: A Tale of Hubris and Wretched Excess on Wall Street"

is it autobiographical?
 
It's embarassing that anyone even considered hiring Mr. Cohan for a job loosely related to business. Maybe he would be OK in a ditch-digging job, or as an artist, where you aren't required to have any business sense.

Apart from juxtaposing them with ditch-diggers, which was an interesting choice, if you think artists don't need any business sense, you are mistaken.

That said, Mr Cohan is no artist. As for ditches, I don't know if he digs them, but he probably should.
 
The exact same thing applies to news coverage of companies like Tesla. There's thousands upon thousands of pieces of news a reporter can mention when writing an article. If they only include datapoints / arguments that support one particular viewpoint, and completely omit the datapoints that contradict it, you can leave your readers with a completely twisted viewpoint. Which is exactly the opposite of what journalism is supposed to do.
While this is true - it is not as simple as that in practice.

Journalists need to make a judgement call on what arguments are "credible". Otherwise you end up giving the same weightage to Nazis as to the Holocaust survivors. When journalists start doing that - we get Trump (and Putin and Modi et al).

The problem is doubly evident in niche areas like Tesla. Journalists just don't have the basic knowledge necessary to make good judgements. They tend to just repeat what they heard or read. So depending on the "conventional wisdom" - the narrative takes on a negative bent (when positive arguments no longer "feel" credible to a journalist) and the other way round too.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.