TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Heimdallr]

If you don't mind, I'll pick up your brains for a couple of minutes, to try to spot what's wrong with these number, guys:

26.78571429
27.30769231
15.34136546
8.561643836
9.966777409
14.22168675
29.50310559
46.96569921

Edit: Sorry, included the Canada numbers as well, then saw scorecard is US only. But my point still stands.

The factor between order tracker and scorecard isn't even close to being constant. Your calculation makes no sense, hence why the number gets completely crazy for September. I can imagine that the order tracker has increased in popularity due to all this TSLA vs. TSLAQ garbage over the past few weeks and months. At the same time, Tesla is now delivering to a larger part of the population, not just hardcore fans. In short: Nothing to see from these numbers alone.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah, except they haven’t, specifically writer Steph Willms and Matt Posky. They both write significantly negatively slanted articles about Tesla. After the linked article, a commenter even says TTAC stands for Tesla Troubles, And Cars.

Let's Applaud These Affordable Cars for Their Tesla Model 3-like Crash Safety - The Truth About Cars

Due to a bug in their site with how they present the GDPR warning to EU readers on Chrome, I can't interact with the site. I can see through the uncloseable popup that it's a list of cars that are (mostly) 5-star rated in every category summary but not in every *subcategory* and *recommended feature*. And that nobody's called them out for this in the comments. I'll also include the rollover probability, to compare with Model 3's 6,6%.

Ford Mustang: Recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 9,3%
Kia Optima: 4 stars in passenger front side, recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 9,8%.
Genesis G80: 4 stars in combined side barrier and pole, front, as well as side barrier, driver. Rollover probability: 9,5%
Acura TLX: Crash imminent braking and dynamic brake support unavailable. Rollover probability: 9,8%
Honda Accord: Forward collision warning, crash imminent braking and dynamic brake support unavailable. Rollover probability: 9,3%.
Honda Civic: Crash imminent braking and dynamic brake support unavailable; forward collision warning and lane departure warning "optional". Rollover probability: 9,5%.
Toyota Camry: Does get 5 stars in all subcategories and have all recommended features standard, but gets a 50% higher chance of rollover. Rollover probability: 9,5%
Subaru Impreza: All recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 9,5%
Subaru Legacy: All recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 10,1%
Nissan Maxima: Doesn't even get 5 stars in one of the main categories (Frontal Crash), let alone all of the subcategories. Also only gets 4 stars on overall side pole rating. Lane departure warning, crash imminent braking, dynamic brake support unavailable. Rollover probability: 9,5%

Their "counterpoint" to the Model 3 scoring so well is to present a list of vehicles that scored inferior ratings to the Model 3. Anyone want to bother pointing this out in the comments which, as mentioned, I can't interact with?

 

[KarenRei]

I tried to go even further and download the NHTSA pdf-format testing docs to compare in more detail, but for some reason I can't open the PDFs; it must be some weird PDF format.

ED: Hmm, not that I'd be able to, because the pdf-format testing docs for the Model 3 aren't out yet.

 

[davecolene0606]

FACT? Draw the same picture exluding GM finance it will look quite different and be an real comparson.

An interesting one could be debt vs produced cars or e mm ployee stock option per sold car.

I understand that are type of REAL comparisons are not of interest in this ecco chamber.

And when you provide the charts please include year over year revenue growth as well.

Thanx

Fire Away!

 

[Chickenlittle]

If you don't mind, I'll pick up your brains for a couple of minutes, to try to spot what's wrong with these number, guys:

1. According to Troy's spreadsheet (pretty reliable), Tesla Model 3 841 deliveries have been reported for US in September (including next week).
2. Tesla Model 3 376 US for Aug.
3. According to InsideEVs, 17,800 Tesla Model 3's were delivered in US.
4. If we extrapolate the proportion in the spreadsheet: 841/376 = 2.23 to InsideEVs number for August to estimate Sept, we get 2.23*17800 = 39,694!!!!!!!

That's completely crazy for September! And it wouldn't fit the current production estimate. My guess is that either the % of people reporting in the spreadsheet has increased, InsideEVs overestimated August or both a bit. Any other potential explanations?

Thanks!!!!





Teslike Model 3 Order Tracker (Published Web Version)

View attachment 337060


InsideEVs Plug-in Sales scorecard:
Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard


View attachment 337061

I have a better system. Will estimate number of street corners in US and stand on one counting the model 3 that go by with temporary plates. Then just multiply. Probably just as accurate

 

[Unpilot]

I see a lot of comparison between Amazon and Tesla as far as current/future valuation. I remember a saying "it is easier to sell a one dollar item to a million people than to sell one person a million dollar item"

In a sense this is what the shorts have in mind. The car is too expensive and not enough people can afford one. ..and if Tesla was "just" a car company they might have a point. Someone up stream complained about a chart showing GM and Tesla market cap and growth. They said you have to remove GM financing to get a true picture. But that begs the question...why is GM in financing? I am sure at one point it was looked on as a revenue stream. Now with Tesla there seems to be a lack of imagination (me being generous here) among shorts for all the possible revenue streams Tesla has. Tesla energy...HUGE demand...Autonomous driving HUGE revenue stream (IMHO this is the "dollar from a million people" part)..Solar HUGE revenue stream. Of course the conversation then shift's to Tesla being capital constrained. Well we are about to see if Tesla can grow organically.

As @Factchecker has stated in much more eloquent terms than I it appears they can.

 

[Ugliest1]

Due to a bug in their site with how they present the GDPR warning to EU readers on Chrome, I can't interact with the site. I can see through the uncloseable popup that it's a list of cars that are (mostly) 5-star rated in every category summary but not in every *subcategory* and *recommended feature*. And that nobody's called them out for this in the comments. I'll also include the rollover probability, to compare with Model 3's 6,6%.

Ford Mustang: Recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 9,3%
Kia Optima: 4 stars in passenger front side, recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 9,8%.
Genesis G80: 4 stars in combined side barrier and pole, front, as well as side barrier, driver. Rollover probability: 9,5%
Acura TLX: Crash imminent braking and dynamic brake support unavailable. Rollover probability: 9,8%
Honda Accord: Forward collision warning, crash imminent braking and dynamic brake support unavailable. Rollover probability: 9,3%.
Honda Civic: Crash imminent braking and dynamic brake support unavailable; forward collision warning and lane departure warning "optional". Rollover probability: 9,5%.
Toyota Camry: Does get 5 stars in all subcategories and have all recommended features standard, but gets a 50% higher chance of rollover. Rollover probability: 9,5%
Subaru Impreza: All recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 9,5%
Subaru Legacy: All recommended safety features "optional". Rollover probability: 10,1%
Nissan Maxima: Doesn't even get 5 stars in one of the main categories (Frontal Crash), let alone all of the subcategories. Also only gets 4 stars on overall side pole rating. Lane departure warning, crash imminent braking, dynamic brake support unavailable. Rollover probability: 9,5%

Their "counterpoint" to the Model 3 scoring so well is to present a list of vehicles that scored inferior ratings to the Model 3. Anyone want to bother pointing this out in the comments which, as mentioned, I can't interact with?

Thank you for doing all this research. I'll copy it to the comments and credit you. I already called out the author for his bias. He freely has admitted in the past he hates EVs, and don't get him started on government incentives.

I'll create a PDF for you and PM it.

 

[LordAstinus]

Well for starters what if you do the same math with the July numbers? Either way I'm thinking 60,000+ deliveries.

Good point about July. They need to do around 28K TM3 deliveries in September to beat 60K for Q3, which is still quite hard, but more feasible that the extrapolation I was making...

 

[aubreymcfato]

Good vibes at teslastats.no 1291 so far for the month of Sept.
Tesla Registration Stats

Wish the chart showed data for last 15 mths though .. that way could compare this quarter to last years quarter. i.e Q3 17 to Q3 18 etc.

This is my personal Google Doc based on Norway numbers, feel free to use it.

 

[EVNow]

FACT? Draw the same picture exluding GM finance it will look quite different and be an real comparson.

GM Finance ? I thought that was already spun off as Ally bank - after GM went bankrupt in 2008. So, I looked up.

GM Financial was a company GM acquired in 2010, after coming out of bankruptcy. The old GMAC was spun off in 2006 as Ally financial.

So, why did GM acquire a financial arm so soon after spinning off GMAC ? Because GM Finance is so essential for GM to operate. They provide finance to the dealers (floorplan etc), give subsidized leases to customers to move cars no one wants to buy etc.

This is the reason all traditional automakers have a financial company. It is essential for their operations. Why would you remove it when comparing, since Tesla includes such items within itself, like financing inventory sitting at the dealership waiting for customers. Oh, do you mean because Tesla doesn't have such needs ?

 

[BenPrice]

You lost me at ‘let’s trust Bloomberg and InsideEvs at the same time.’

They’re close enough often enough.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Nice video to cheer you all up while the SP misbehaves...

chris collins on Twitter

Anyone know the name of song on video by I Wrestled a Bear?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

So we are in the level of conspiracy theories now. What's next, falcon heavy, the roadster in orbit and the starman are all CGI.

Reductio ad absurdum - Wikipedia

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

FACT? Draw the same picture exluding GM finance it will look quite different and be an real comparson.

An interesting one could be debt vs produced cars or e mm ployee stock option per sold car.

I understand that are type of REAL comparisons are not of interest in this ecco chamber.

Somewhat true, but you'd also have to exclude Tesla non-recourse debt, one secured with customers payments for electricity. That's majority of Tesla's debt if I remember well.
Your point stands, but final corrected results may be quite similar to originally presented...

 

[Etna]

Anyone know the name of song on video by I Wrestled a Bear?

"Doomed to fall Part 2".

 

[Remus]

Reductio ad absurdum - Wikipedia

That was my intention against an accusation to Elon where the accuser doesn't have any evidence. And what's your intention for pointing out the obvious?

 

[winfield100]

it looks like, from Ihor's data, that short interest is UP ~2.5 million shares in September, about 7.9%
(from 32.9 to 35.5 million), yet stock price depressed little to none

 

[Fact Checking]

But there are people in California who ordered at the end of June who haven't gotten their cars and haven't had a delivery specialist assigned at all, which is *crazy*. There is something *seriously wrong* with Tesla's computer system for tracking orders, and some group of people's orders has fallen through the cracks.

IIRC Troy noticed and tweeted to Elon a suspected database bug, orders on a specific date do not seem to be getting VINs, at all.

(No link to the tweet now, maybe someone can post it?)

 

[mongo]

it looks like, from Ihor's data, that short interest is UP ~2.5 million shares in September, about 7.9%
(from 32.9 to 35.5 million), yet stock price depressed little to none

View attachment 337114

How are you determining what the stock price would be without the shorting?
Level != not depressed.

 

[winfield100]

How are you determining what the stock price would be without the shorting?
Level != not depressed.

i have no idea, othe than vo;atility would be way down