TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Zhelko Dimic]

That was my intention against an accusation to Elon where the accuser doesn't have any evidence. And what's your intention for pointing out the obvious?

Huh!?
You attacked @schonelucht implying he'd said everything else (from your list) he never said. You're putting words in his mouth, showing "reduction ad absurdum" as if he did it, but it's you doing it.

 

[Sudre]

I love that there are so many willing to volunteer their time, but, let's be realistic, this is almost guaranteed to cause a lot of confusion and even more nightmarish parking for such a big sales push, if they try to converge on the actual delivery centers.

With a bit of pre-planning this could have however been rather clever - arrange to have the various owner groups / etc get permission to host meetups at nearby mall parking lots or whatever, print up a bunch of flyers to give to the new owners and basically get all those new Tesla owners out the door with the bare minimum of instructing they need to get to the nearest meetup and let the fans do the rest.

Actually it helps with parking. When Tesla did the reservation day the St. Louis Tesla club met up early at the store. We directed traffic and gave rides in our Model S from parking lots around town to the store. It kept things rather orderly. This is and was an extreme great service more so than assisting in the delivery because Tesla has limited parking. Plus for that event non-Tesla owners got rides in Tesla’s and were sold before they were dropped off to reserve.

If Model 3 owners can give new buyer rides from off sight parking lots to the pickup area the new owner can learn almost everything by the time they arrive at the store. Double so if there is a significant other instructing the to-be owner while the partner is driving to the store.

 

[Remus]

Huh!?
You attacked @schonelucht implying he'd said everything else (from your list) he never said. You're putting words in his mouth, showing "reduction ad absurdum" as if he did it, but it's you doing it.

I am using reduction to absurdity. But I am not putting words into anyone's mouth. I am drawing an analogy bebween his accusation of Elon planting the question to an absurd accusations of Space X defrauding its way in the space industry, which should be obvious with the usage of 'what's next'.

The level of absurdity various a little. Underlying accusations with no evidence is the same. He didn't even hedge his accusation with words like probably.

 

[Sudre]

I (somewhat sadly) had my deposit refunded. The reservation means nothing. I think by the time orders open up in the UK there will be little benefit for being a reservation holder - particularly if you're going to order a P3D. Those vehicles will be prioritised to the first people who pay.

You live outside the US?

You might be right but I feel Tesla will be able to sell everything they want right here in North America for at least another year. I know once I feel the first year model issues are worked out I will be buying. I am leaning towards the opinion that Tesla will only deliver Model 3 outside North America that are ordered off the reservation list except in countries with expiring EV incentives. I really don’t think they want to spend large shipping cost to send cars that people might not buy.

All batched vehicles that don’t sell in North America will be test drive vehicles. Heck St. Louis is still lacking in test drive Model 3s.

 

[The Blue Owl]

This is totally off-topic, but I am really curious: what has @Reality done this time that he got banned again? I don't see anything objectionable in any of his posts since he was last unbanned to warrant a new ban, and in fact he recently had what I thought was a useful exchange with @luvb2b on the q2-q4 projections thread.

So, in case I missed it, what did he do this time?

 

[EVMeister]

Is he actually banned? He had a custom status thingy under his name that says 'Banned' for as long as I can remember. I think...

 

[neroden]

IIRC Troy noticed and tweeted to Elon a suspected database bug, orders on a specific date do not seem to be getting VINs, at all.

(No link to the tweet now, maybe someone can post it?)

I hope Musk actually read Troy's tweet. It seems a remarkably unreliable way to get CRITICAL BUGS reported to management. Communications failure again.

Is there some way to signal-boost this problem so that Tesla management, lost in their poor-communications bubble, can actually hear it?!?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Is he actually banned? He had a custom status thingy under his name that says 'Banned' for as long as I can remember. I think...

Oh. If so, he should change that. (And if he doesn't, he should get banned, heh heh.)

 

[Tslynk67]

IIRC Troy noticed and tweeted to Elon a suspected database bug, orders on a specific date do not seem to be getting VINs, at all.

(No link to the tweet now, maybe someone can post it?)

This one? Troy Teslike on Twitter

 

[Sudre]

GM Finance ? I thought that was already spun off as Ally bank - after GM went bankrupt in 2008. So, I looked up.

GM Financial was a company GM acquired in 2010, after coming out of bankruptcy. The old GMAC was spun off in 2006 as Ally financial.

So, why did GM acquire a financial arm so soon after spinning off GMAC ? Because GM Finance is so essential for GM to operate. They provide finance to the dealers (floorplan etc), give subsidized leases to customers to move cars no one wants to buy etc.

This is the reason all traditional automakers have a financial company. It is essential for their operations. Why would you remove it when comparing, since Tesla includes such items within itself, like financing inventory sitting at the dealership waiting for customers. Oh, do you mean because Tesla doesn't have such needs ?

I totally agree but would like to add..... some economic shorts claim sub-prime auto loans are the next bubble to burst like the sub-prime housing loans 10 years ago. What is that going to do to GM finance?
I also find it interesting how they spun it off right before bankruptcy but that is a whole separate debate.

 

[shootformoon]

I see a lot of comparison between Amazon and Tesla as far as current/future valuation. I remember a saying "it is easier to sell a one dollar item to a million people than to sell one person a million dollar item"

In a sense this is what the shorts have in mind. The car is too expensive and not enough people can afford one. ..and if Tesla was "just" a car company they might have a point. Someone up stream complained about a chart showing GM and Tesla market cap and growth. They said you have to remove GM financing to get a true picture. But that begs the question...why is GM in financing? I am sure at one point it was looked on as a revenue stream. Now with Tesla there seems to be a lack of imagination (me being generous here) among shorts for all the possible revenue streams Tesla has. Tesla energy...HUGE demand...Autonomous driving HUGE revenue stream (IMHO this is the "dollar from a million people" part)..Solar HUGE revenue stream. Of course the conversation then shift's to Tesla being capital constrained. Well we are about to see if Tesla can grow organically.

As @Factchecker has stated in much more eloquent terms than I it appears they can.

One thing I really do not get is the tsla solar. Residential Solar is really commodity imho. Yes, the tsla solar roof has its appeal and will sell to a niche market. But last time I crunch the numbers it is nowhere close to the mass market. So I do not foresee it will make up more than 5% in the tsla revenue in, say, 6-8 years. Could anyone educate me here please?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

ZEV/Other Credits Q3

 

[gringotuanis]

One thing I really do not get is the tsla solar. Residential Solar is really commodity imho. Yes, the tsla solar roof has its appeal and will sell to a niche market. But last time I crunch the numbers it is nowhere close to the mass market. So I do not foresee it will make up more than 5% in the tsla revenue in, say, 6-8 years. Could anyone educate me here please?

I would actually completely agree with you here. In the Midwest, we have limited sunshine, tornados, etc. A larger hours with a new roof runs $10 to $16k. I don't see why anyone would pay double for solar panels. It just makes no sense when our electric bills are fairly cheap per KW due to nuclear or coal power.

 

[Fact Checking]

I totally agree but would like to add..... some economic shorts claim sub-prime auto loans are the next bubble to burst like the sub-prime housing loans 10 years ago. What is that going to do to GM finance?

I do think the next recession, if it's deep enough, could trigger the collapse and bankruptcy of most U.S. ICE carmakers.

Here are the forces in play:

• ICE cars are going to have sharper and sharper depreciation curve, due to EVs having lower repair and fuel costs and due to EVs being the future.
• Car loans are much easier to default on than house loans. Car loans are typically secured by the car itself, which might be repossessed - but that is a massive loss to GM Finance: future income is lost plus they now have an older cars with much lower resale value on inventory.
• There's over 1 trillion dollars of car loans outstanding - and captive firms like GM Finance are creating a lot of new loans to keep the car sales going.
• New car sales tend to drop first when unemployment rises - and that is about the worst moment to get lots of cars repossessed which create a glut in car sales: they create oversupply and further depress prices.
• If overextended families start defaulting on second/third cars (credit score be damned), especially if there's a drop in ICE demand and a drop in expected future value of ICE cars, could start a death spiral if it happens in high enough cases.

There are some signs of this happening already:

Note that it's also possible in principle for the ICE industry to deteriorate to such a degree, that the failure of one of the big three triggers an industry wide crisis, which creates a crisis of confidence in the ICE products themselves, which again starts a death spiral.

This could trigger a recession in itself, further worsening the situation.

To me the ICE industry looks very fragile with systematic weaknesses: the main problem IMO is that most ICE carmakers are operating on razor thin margins (compared to Tesla), while they have high capital requirements to keep going, which makes them less resilient to economic shocks.

In my opinion a hard failure of the ICE industry is not a question of "if", but a question of "when".

Now arguably this will take time, the next recession might still be years away. The ICE car industry might also find a way to create desirable EVs and avoid the disruption.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is totally off-topic, but I am really curious: what has @Reality done this time that he got banned again? I don't see anything objectionable in any of his posts since he was last unbanned to warrant a new ban, and in fact he recently had what I thought was a useful exchange with @luvb2b on the q2-q4 projections thread.

So, in case I missed it, what did he do this time?

Keep looking. I’m sure he peed somewhere in the house.

 

[Sudre]

I would actually completely agree with you here. In the Midwest, we have limited sunshine, tornados, etc. A larger hours with a new roof runs $10 to $16k. I don't see why anyone would pay double for solar panels. It just makes no sense when our electric bills are fairly cheap per KW due to nuclear or coal power.

There are a lot of things people don't take into account when pricing stuff like EVs and roofs.
I have lived in my house for over 25 years. I have solar that was installed in 2014. There are incentives for installing solar. My solar after incentives is tracking to be paid for in another 6-8 years. I put a new roof on my house soon after bought the house. I will be needing another roof before I sell the house. That will cost more because the solar will have to be removed and reinstalled.

Tesla's solar roof will also get the incentives.
The roof part is warrantied for life.
Squirrels can not eat the wiring so maintenance will be lower. (installers didn't tell me that part) There is 1 panel out of the 48 that is defective (from the start) and generating less than 50% of all the other panels. I have one damaged panel possible hail or kids ball. Installer does not honor the warranty at all because of the fore mentioned squirrel that ate through one wire. Everything is now the squirrels fault. Insurance does not cover squirrel damage. I should have said it was a racoon.

I would have rather had Tesla's solar roof at twice the cost and twice the rebate for zero aggravation.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tales From Da Hood, Part 1

We've had our M3 for three months. My better half uses our M3 as her daily commute and I take public transit. I do get to use it on the weekends! Last Wednesday I got a treat to use our M3 to drive to my company's annual golf tourney and she took the ICE. Well, I come back home late in the evening and find our ICE car in the driveway with the lights on and the engine running with no one in sight. After entering the house I say "ummm...honey, did you forget something?" Not a clue. When I mentioned the ICE was running outside she mused "Why the heck can't that car turn them it off by itself?"

My turn was today. I haven't driven the ICE in two months, however it was move day for a family member and we have a 8 passenger ICE SUV which quite frankly does carry a lot of stuff. Two full trips back and forth loaded to the brim did the job. But I was amazed at all the noise. It was coming from under the hood, It was coming from underneath the seat. It was coming out the tail pipe of the car, I found it annoyingly exhausting. And when stopped the car still lurches forward when I don't have my foot on the brake. Why would it do that if I am at a red light? And unresponsive, it seemed to be changing gears all the time. The worst part was every time I passed a Tesla, and there were many, I had to hide my face out of embarrassment. "This isn't really me", I would say. "I am one of you. I believe. I BELIEVE." And then I notice the fuel tank was low and I had to go to the gas station for the first time in three months and realized how messy and uncomfortable I felt, not to mention paying close to $100, to pour liquid fossil fuel to slosh around in a tank. While leaning against the ICE, I felt the car actually lower with the weight of it all. When I got home I still had that stink on my hands from the pump, so I had to take a shower with a lot of soap. Dang, I used to love driving that ICE. What happened?

Edit: Tesla happened.

 

[Electroman]

every time I passed a Tesla, and there were many,

You passed a Tesla or was it the other way?

 

[EVNow]

To me the ICE industry looks very fragile with systematic weaknesses: the main problem IMO is that most ICE carmakers are operating on razor thin margins (compared to Tesla), while they have high capital requirements to keep going, which makes them less resilient to economic shocks.

One of the issues in 2008 was the unsustainable pensions. Basically GM and others decided to offer pensions instead of raising wages. They created future obligations without creating enough reserves. This boosted current revenue & profits and created definite problems down the road.

Now they don't have that issue.

But other problems remain. Including subsidized leases where they know the resale value will be lower than the residual price. But they continue to do this in order to boost present revenue & profits. Shows how short sighted American companies have become.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Tales From Da Hood, Part 1

We've had our M3 for three months. My better half uses our M3 as her daily commute and I take public transit. I do get to use it on the weekends! Last Wednesday I got a treat to use our M3 to drive to my company's annual golf tourney and she took the ICE. Well, I come back home late in the evening and find our ICE car in the driveway with the lights on and the engine running with no one in sight. After entering the house I say "ummm...honey, did you forget something?" Not a clue. When I mentioned the ICE was running outside she mused "Why the heck can't that car turn them it off by itself?"

My turn was today. I haven't driven the ICE in two months, however it was move day for a family member and we have a 8 passenger ICE SUV which quite frankly does carry a lot of stuff. Two full trips back and forth loaded to the brim did the job. But I was amazed at all the noise. It was coming from under the hood, It was coming from underneath the seat. It was coming out the tail pipe of the car, I found it annoyingly exhausting. And when stopped the car still lurches forward when I don't have my foot on the brake. Why would it do that if I am at a red light? And unresponsive, it seemed to be changing gears all the time. The worst part was every time I passed a Tesla, and there were many, I had to hide my face out of embarrassment. "This isn't really me", I would say. "I am one of you. I believe. I BELIEVE." And then I notice the fuel tank was low and I had to go to the gas station for the first time in three months and realized how messy and uncomfortable I felt, not to mention paying close to $100, to pour liquid fossil fuel to slosh around in a tank. While leaning against the ICE, I felt the car actually lower with the weight of it all. When I got home I still had that stink on my hands from the pump, so I had to take a shower with a lot of soap. Dang, I used to love driving that ICE. What happened?

Edit: Tesla happened.

Lol that pretty much sums up the obituary for ICE