TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Piper Jaffray managing director and senior technical research analyst Craig Johnson today highlighted TSLA along with two other consumer cyclical stocks that he now views favorably. However, he noted that, “Shares are backing and filling around the 10-/30-week WMAs after successfully retesting the base of a descending triangle; RS remains in neutral territory; wait for a confirmed topside breakout before adding to positions (close above $350).”

Johnson similarly alluded to TSLA on 2013 JAN 28. In response to that I performed considerable research and then bought my initial core of TSLA shares. He’s only mentioned TSLA one other time since then. Craig was an occasional guest on my TV show, and has kept me on the comp list for his weekly newsletter despite my retirement.

 

[bdy0627]

There isn't another side.

The past two days worth of decline was occurring because people are getting inside information on these short reports.

Otherwise, the squeeze on Monday would have continued. Its people shorting without fear, because they know the information before we do, that cause this.

We lose. We will always lose.

Markets up 50%-100%, other stocks up 100%-1000% in a year...

Tesla gets none of it. We just take abuse. We just risk all of our money for the fun of it apparently.

Eventually, TSLA will move to where it should be despite the manipulations. This is also why it often makes dramatic moves.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The harder they try, the more I am convinced of my position.

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[viridi]

As an investor, these two stories are what I care about far more than some hit piece from a known Tesla basher who never seems to name her sources (and is likely either regurgitating old news or speaking with the same disgruntled employee(s) or former employee(s)):

Tesla Semi electric truck spotted all the way in St-Louis at a Supercharger station

Tesla next-generation Roadster prototype shows up at Gigafactory 1

And here is Electrek’s take on the hit piece and the issues:

Tesla’s stock falls on claims of increasing number of ‘flawed Model 3 parts’, the automaker responds

My view on all of this is the shorts were very worried about the recent run-up in the stock that seems to have been based on the view that Tesla was closer to really ramping Model 3 production. This seems to happen often when Tesla is making progress - the shorts gear up their FUD machine, of which Lora seems to be a part. As a long-term investor, I am not worried and will sleep well tonight.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

We lose. We will always lose.

Markets up 50%-100%, other stocks up 100%-1000% in a year...

Tesla gets none of it. We just take abuse. We just risk all of our money for the fun of it apparently.

Speak for yourself.

I for one have a diverse portfolio that includes everything from low-cost index funds to shares in companies far more speculative than TSLA. There are many others here who discuss their other holdings in the “what other tech stock” thread in this sub forum.

Nobody should be risking “all” their money on one company. That is irresponsible and reckless in the extreme.

 

[Jayjs20]

That is irresponsible and reckless in the extreme.

Oh it'll be fine!

...long as you stay away from margins.

 

[myusername]

Notice how there is never a positive rumor about this company?

Ever notice how every "surprise" report is negative?

Cards are stacked against us. Longs don't use fake news to raise the stock but shorts are kings and queens of fake news.

ANY positive report is discounted and ignored. ALL negative reports are treated as gospel.

But I'll watch my account values go to zero if I have to. Shorts can burn.

fake news?... tell us... what news was it that drove the stock up 6% two days ago?

 

[Wenche]

Piper Jaffray managing director and senior technical research analyst Craig Johnson today highlighted TSLA along with two other consumer cyclical stocks that he now views favorably. However, he noted that, “Shares are backing and filling around the 10-/30-week WMAs after successfully retesting the base of a descending triangle; RS remains in neutral territory; wait for a confirmed topside breakout before adding to positions (close above $350).”

Johnson similarly alluded to TSLA on 2013 JAN 28. In response to that I performed considerable research and then bought my initial core of TSLA shares. He’s only mentioned TSLA one other time since then. Craig was an occasional guest on my TV show, and has kept me on the comp list for his weekly newsletter despite my retirement.

I have for years had a sell target for my core possision at $400, now I will change it to $1620

 

[Words of HABIT]

fake news?... tell us... what news was it that drove the stock up 6% two days ago?

At end of 2012 Tesla was cranking out one car type on weekly numbers you could count using body parts and it was make or break, if the MS failed, Tesla would have gone bankrupt. The MS originally thought to have a 20k/yr upper limit is now selling >50k/yr with no signs of slowing down. TSLA is ATH bound until confirmed 5k/wk M3, not tweets but confirmation. Only then expect it to break new highs in the 400s. Let's stop comparing 2018 to 2013. It's not going to happen. These are not the droids your looking for. Move along. Move along.

I am not at all surprised at the swift turnaround to TSLA SP. TSLA does not deserve to be near its ATH until 5k M3 are confirmed. The recent tweet from Elon (no new news) propelled the stock up 5.5% on Monday and we are now back to before his tweet. Conspiracy theories abound when SP is falling. No new news and two senior Finance Execs leaving. This is the cause. The Shorts will have no power once M3 production ramps. It's a waiting game and my money is betting it will be worth the wait.

 

[AZRI11]

My sibling is a dept manager for a supplier that makes some of the
equipment in Fremont factory. She asked district salesman opinion on tesla ramp he was very positive. I couldn't get any more info sibling knows more but is afraid of getting in trouble. Salesman is frequent visitor to factory during ramps. I wish knew more just trying to be helpful. Btw sibling told salesman how much I have invested in tesla, and he responded positively. Almost forgot, they also supply some of the assembly line equipment to ford.

 

[Words of HABIT]

There are many on this thread that want nothing more than to make short term profit off TSLA. Buy the dip. Sell the high. How does that benefit Tesla? It is only self serving. Unfortunately for short term movements, this thread stopped being ahead of the curve at the end of 2013. Ironically with a high flyer like TSLA, far more people will lose money than gain money when speculating (short term trades) and those that invest (long term trades) in Tesla will profit handsomely and sleep soundly. Good night.

 

[Menifeer]

There are many on this thread that want nothing more than to make short term profit off TSLA. Buy the dip. Sell the high. How does that benefit Tesla? It is only self serving. Unfortunately for short term movements, this thread stopped being ahead of the curve at the end of 2013. Ironically with a high flyer like TSLA, far more people will lose money than gain money when speculating (short term trades) and those that invest (long term trades) in Tesla will profit handsomely and sleep soundly. Good night.

Speaking (fingering?) as a short-term trader, I believe I've done much better over the last year than those who bought and held.

Why should I care if it benefits Tesla????? Self-serving? Certainly!!

I buy (options exclusively) on dips and sell on blips. The news will be good or bad from day to day, making the price volatile. Just what traders like me love to see.

One day TSLA will be a good investment. For the time-being, it's a good trade.

 

[madodel]

fwiw, 40% of it was bought by Univision in 2016.

and, from one of today's articles on Elon's project, referring to two of the former top people at the Onion who've been hired by Elon,

"Former Onion Editor in Chief Cole Bolton and Executive Editor Ben Berkley left the publication last year due to differences with the company’s management."

Elon Musk Wanted to Buy ‘The Onion,’ Now His Team’s Hiring Its Staffers for a Secret Project

I don't know if their differences were due to Univision's influence, but, it would not be shocking if it was.

Would that be "Thud!"?
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[RiverCard]

... tell us... what news was it that drove the stock up 6% two days ago?

SXSW

 

[EinSV]

Fun fact: According to shortvolume.com, shorts were involved in 69.4% of TSLA trades today, the highest percentage in the recent string of 10 consecutive trading days above 60%. Even more impressive considering relatively heavy volume of ~8M shares traded. Shorts are working overtime. I wonder how long they can keep it up ....

 

[dmckinstry]

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I have for years had a sell target for my core possision at $400, now I will change it to $1620

Since 5 or 6 years ago I've been following the advice of someone on TMC (can't remember who; perhaps Steffan) and had a wide spread of sell targets that has been gradually increasing, just in case there ever is a "real" short squeeze.

 

[bdy0627]

Bu

There are many on this thread that want nothing more than to make short term profit off TSLA. Buy the dip. Sell the high. How does that benefit Tesla? It is only self serving. Unfortunately for short term movements, this thread stopped being ahead of the curve at the end of 2013. Ironically with a high flyer like TSLA, far more people will lose money than gain money when speculating (short term trades) and those that invest (long term trades) in Tesla will profit handsomely and sleep soundly. Good night.

This is statistically true. But....

 

[bdy0627]

Fun fact: According to shortvolume.com, shorts were involved in 69.4% of TSLA trades today, the highest percentage in the recent string of 10 consecutive trading days above 60%. Even more impressive considering relatively heavy volume of ~8M shares traded. Shorts are working overtime. I wonder how long they can keep it up ....


View attachment 286508

It sure felt that way today. Glad to know there was a good reason that it felt that way.

 

[Tslynk67]

"Thud!" was the title of a Terry Pratchett book, I assume he got it from there?

We have our own "Onion" in the U.K. Queen paid less than Prince Philip

 

[UnknownSoldier]

The timing of the hit piece and burst of short activity is quite convenient after the share price popped post-SXSW.

Watching $TSLA is like watching trench warfare between bulls and bears. One side charges and gains territory, then the other side counter-attacks and takes it back.