TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[NikeWings]

Did I miss the SEC press conference with those two stonefaced, teeth-gnashing regulators announcing their success.?

 

[dqd88]

Do we actually know that there is a SEPARATE DOJ investigation? I thought I remembered it being mentioned either on TMC or perhaps CNBC that the DOJ often works hand-in-hand with the SEC during these types of investigations. So, there only involvement may have been to do some of the ground work for the SEC perhaps?

hmm good question. I heard that they can work together in some cases, but my impression was that in this case they are separate, though probably sharing notes.
I don't thin the DOJ has a case but there's always the possibility which is stressful. Usually SEC is civil and DOJ is criminal.

 

[Boomer19]

I lost money as a result of the situation, but I lost the most from this misguided lawsuit

same

 

[mongo]

I'm trying to estimate the upside to the stock price on Monday/Tuesday.

The stock was already somewhat depressed because of a widespread worry about SEC action. Then it dropped $42 when that fear was realized. It should go back up that amount because of the settlement. Then, of course, the worry has also gone away. That's maybe another $20. Say $320 is believable. Then before market open Tuesday (maybe Monday, if I were Tesla, I'd be aiming for that) confirmation of really good deliveries, that might be another $20. Also Tuesday morning, a lot of small, weak shorts will get margin calls and have to cover. I won't call it a short squeeze, but another $10 takes it to $350 Tuesday evening.

Regarding the part I bolded, are you saying premarket or post-market on Monday? I like premarket Monday to take advantage of the uptick rule, shorts can try to cap, but won't be able to cause any dips. Unless they went long Friday to dump Monday, but the short % doesn't seem to support that approach.

Edit: Capping being a really bad idea with the train of good news pulling into the station.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I am laughing my ass off thinking about Elon Musk emailing Martin Viecha asking if his tweet on the simulation can be approved XD.

 

[MXWing]

That’s pure unadulterated wishful thinking. The SP has NEVER fully recovered immediately following a one day pounding like it took on Friday. It’s always taken several days, if not weeks to recoup.

In your favor is that shorts can’t short on Monday and Tesla might announce quarter numbers. But even with those two, it would literally be a miracle never seen before if the SP climbs to its Thursday close on Monday.

And $290 doesn’t cut it. It has to recover $42.75.

While you are "probably" right, FOMO CAN propel prices beyond rationality. Look at BTC to 17,000.

Not irrational to us but irrational to investors not as familiar to Tesla.

I just want to see enough buying to margin call shorts. If traders want to profit take after that - fine by me.

 

[Ludalicious]

This news is IMO great news for investors and will loose allot of the shorts. Having a CEO that randomly tweeted comments was the leading edge the shorts had. Just looking at the graph it's a complete buffet for shorts. This will definitely stabilize the stock. Theres not much left other the the investigation. that's about all the ammunition they have left once the company is profitable.

 

[Fact Checking]

Seeking Alpha shorts are LIVID over the settlement.

If I was short I'd be sweating bullets too: even with the SEC backwind going 33-34 million shares short into Q3 deliveries was nuts already IMO, and now the SEC settlement removes the cloud of uncertainty not just from Elon, but Tesla as well?

Note how the trolls here crawled back into their holes as well.

It's insane to be short $TSLA right now IMO, and I'd not be surprised if saner shorts covered on Monday in droves, to at least avoid the Q3 deliveries rally.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

...confirmation of really good deliveries, that might be another $20. Also Tuesday morning, a lot of small, weak shorts will get margin calls and have to cover. I won't call it a short squeeze, but another $10 takes it to $350 Tuesday evening.

What if... jhm and neroden were tapped for board, and @bonnie as chairman? Or @Papafox in there somewhere... Embiggen Yo Dreams!

 

[dmckinstry]

I assume that "text" page is just an OCR version of the actual document, not part of the official agreement.

Why in the world would an OCR version be needed? No one uses documents that can only be printed on paper these days. At least I assume that the SEC uses computer generated documents that can be printed, or at least be "printed" to a pdf.

 

[HG Wells]

I'd be sweating bullets too: going 33-34 million shares short into Q3 deliveries was nuts already, and now the SEC settlement removes the cloud of uncertainty not just from Elon, but Tesla as well?

It's insane IMO, and I'd not be surprised if saner shorts covered on Monday in droves, to at least avoid the Q3 deliveries rally.

Perhaps this was Musk's short squeeze plan all along.

Get sued, pull more shorts in, settle, and announce the best quarter ever.

Even if it wasn't true, Id put it in his autobiography as being the plan all along.

 

[mongo]

Why in the world would an OCR version be needed? No one uses documents that can only be printed on paper these days. At least I assume that the SEC uses computer generated documents that can be printed, or at least be "printed" to a pdf.

Document is printed then signed and notarized (embossed seal). That fully executed document is then logged and scanned. Scanned version then OCRed.

 

[mongo]

Perhaps this was Musk's plan all along.
Get sued, pull more shorts in, settle, and announce the best quarter ever.

Even if it wasn't true, Id put it in his autobiography as if it was the plan all along.

If an autobiography, only after the statute of limitations expires....

 

[NikeWings]

Zzzzzzzzzzz
Clayton lobbying for his next gig.


SEC chairman says Tesla settlement in 'best interests' of shareholders
Published 1 Hour AgoReuters

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission chairman Jay Clayton said in a statement on Saturday that the agency's settlement with carmaker Tesla was in the best interests of the U.S. markets and company shareholders.

Earlier on Saturday, the agency said it had fined Musk and Tesla $20 million each and required Musk to step down as chairman to settle securities fraud charges over Aug. 7 tweets in which Musk said he was taking the company private.

"I...fully support the settlements agreed today and believe that the prompt resolution of this matter...is in the best interests of our markets and our investors, including the shareholders of Tesla," Clayton said. (Reporting by Michelle Price Editing by Alistair Bell)

 

[bhtooefr]

Perhaps this was Musk's short squeeze plan all along.

Get sued, pull more shorts in, settle, and announce the best quarter ever.

Even if it wasn't true, Id put it in his autobiography as being the plan all along.

I feel like this is deserving of a Shortsville Times piece about illegal stock price manipulation, but I can't come up with good wording for it.

 

[Driver Dave]

I wouldn’t want to be that guy who shorted on Friday.

Worst bet ever.

 

[ZachF]

Seeking Alpha shorts are LIVID over the settlement.

 

[yttrasil]

Hypothetical question, what would happen if a consortium (say SpaceX) or one founded by some large investors including Elon bought out Tesla outright as the suggested deal (say a private one) would Elon be allowed to be chairman of the parent company under this settlement?

Three years is quite a long time, and we know it is an option for Elon.

 

[ZachF]

Perhaps this was Musk's short squeeze plan all along.

Get sued, pull more shorts in, settle, and announce the best quarter ever.

Even if it wasn't true, Id put it in his autobiography as being the plan all along.

Squeeze secured.

 

[bhtooefr]

I wouldn’t want to be that guy who shorted on Friday.

Worst bet ever.

Could've been worse for them, the uptick rule could've not been in place, and they could've shorted at a lower price.

Of course, there's also shorts who did it via selling calls...