TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[gora321]

Heavy trading in Europe. We are back!
Smart shorts probably went away.
Why this volumes could not happen on same time?
This would be the lesson!

 

[Fact Checking]

Europe +16,7%

The Friday closing price was $264, so this means pre-market TSLA is trading in Europe at $306 already.

 

[gora321]

Wow link please?

TESLA INC. REGISTERED SHARES DL-,001 Aktienporträt Aktie - A1CX3T - US88160R1014

 

[oneday]

Not really and not very. I think Tesla may be able to massage the numbers into a small profit this quarter (with a lot of of help from regulatory credits) but I don't see a sustainable path.

But, of course, I can't speak for any other short. And I should clarify that technically I am not short - I am long puts.

The thing I find curious about this narrative, is it doesn't make sense that this would be a one time thing. Production is still increasing. Tesla still has demand all around the world. Economies of scale are only going to get better. Margin should improve, no?

 

[Jayjs20]

Not really and not very. I think Tesla may be able to massage the numbers into a small profit this quarter (with a lot of of help from regulatory credits) but I don't see a sustainable path.

But, of course, I can't speak for any other short. And I should clarify that technically I am not short - I am long puts.

In your opinion, what are they doing that's special in this quarter that they won't be able to do in Q4 or 2019/Q1?

 

[Thekiwi]

TL0.F $268.42 (+16.13%) on Yahoo Finance TL0.F : Summary for TESLA INC. DL -,001 - Yahoo Finance

Only 4461 shares traded at present - is that typical volume?

 

[sundaymorning]

Heavy trading in Europe. We are back!
Smart shorts probably went away.
Why this volumes could not happen on same time?
This would be the lesson!
View attachment 339678

Ok. Ok. Ok ok ok ok. So what happens IF we’re profitable, with 30% shorts? We’re about 24 hours away from finding out right? C’mon Tesla, time to hit back hard!!!!!!!!!

 

[Fact Checking]

Have you ever heard of an institutional investor who wouldn't celebrate and double down when the CEO of one of their holdings gets fined for 0.08% of their annual revenue

FTFY.

Indeed, I agree that they won't double down, that's the point where they'll triple down: "slap on the wrist only, cloud of uncertainty removed".

the CEO of one of their holdings gets [...] sanctioned by the SEC to not Tweet material, market-moving information spontaneously?

FTFY.

Institutional investor reaction: "Wow, that news is simply fantastic, we'll now quadruple down!".

Do you have any other questions over the upcoming losses of shorts? Are shorts over at SA still livid at the SEC for settling their lawsuit with Elon and Tesla and allowing Elon to continue as CEO?

 

[MXWing]

Honestly, if the shorts saw what I saw everyday, I'd be terrified of being short on the wrong day. That day potentially being a legitimately profit quarter perhaps combined with no more SEC cloud..?

There is so much S3X going on where I drive its amazing. S3X at practically every intersection. Group S3X happens at crowded lights.

Driving traditional auto is looking to be a faux pas.

Network effect is happening..

I happen to participate in the Model 3 discussions and I've seen now several Tesla skeptics practically change their religion once they took possession of the car that aggravated them so much.

 

[Fact Checking]

Ok. Ok. Ok ok ok ok. So what happens IF we’re profitable, with 30% shorts? We’re about 24 hours away from finding out right? C’mon Tesla, time to hit back hard!!!!!!!!!

Patience: the real short burn, if it happens, is more probable on Nov 2-3, when the Q3 financial report is released.

That is the point where the 'slow money', who doesn't really care about or know Tesla but knows quarterly financials, is going to start investing in this upcoming new natural monopoly, heavily.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

In your opinion, what are they doing that's special in this quarter that they won't be able to do in Q4 or 2019/Q1?

In my opinion, they are satisfying pull-forward demand for high-price variants and that level of demand is not sustainable.

 

[McMountain]

Only 4461 shares traded at present - is that typical volume?

That´s actually a fairly big volume for Frankfurt pre-market.

Edit: I think we are seeing Stuttgart here, which opens at 8:00 AM.

 

[MXWing]

In my opinion, they are satisfying pull-forward demand for high-price variants and that level of demand is not sustainable.

Did you consider the world is bigger than the United States and Canada?

I know.. its shocking to everyone else that a dumb American would actually know crossing the Pacific and Atlantic might lead you to new land masses with new people and new markets.

 

[Xpert]

Only 4461 shares traded at present - is that typical volume?

Yes that is heavy colume. Usually though, US market will kick it up a notch when it opens amplifying the EU move.

 

[Fact Checking]

Only 4461 shares traded at present - is that typical volume?

Over 13,000 shares now - which is pretty heavy for Frankfurt early trading, which is usually a super low liquidity pre-market volume of a low liquidity secondary NASDAQ issue.

 

[Jayjs20]

In my opinion, they are satisfying pull-forward demand for high-price variants and that level of demand is not sustainable.

Ok, lets assume you're correct. Big assumption on my part, but I'll play along.

Lets say 6 months from now, they start rolling out the SR versions of the M3. Lower margins, but at much higher volume. Do you think that's not enough to sustain profitability? Or do you think SR version can not be profitable, period?

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Did you consider the world is bigger than the United States and Canada?

I know.. its shocking to everyone else that a dumb American would actually know crossing the Pacific and Atlantic might lead you to new land masses with new people and new markets.

It is usually useful to avoid becoming over-emotional when analyzing stocks. I always find that the loss of the ability to discuss courteously precedes only briefly the loss of the ability to analyze rationally.

 

[wipster]

Wikipedia: The legal rights of AIs

Starting in 2040 all AIs with a standard computing capacity of over 10 zetaflops gained legal personhood and became U.S. citizens if manufactured on U.S. soil.

Teslas have the right to pick their name, legal gender and place of residence.

Due to their legal personhood and their huge popularity, Teslas are not "purchased" anymore, but the cars pick new families they are signing work contracts with, based on extensive background checks and in person interviews that include several test drives as well.

There's a long waiting queue, but they are worth the wait as Tesla cars are known for their seemingly insatiable desire to drive, drive and drive.

The Tesla Group, who brings them to life, receives a life-time share of 10% of their income, in a complicated legal construct that makes all Teslas Mars citizens as well.

Teslas also have the right to switch families: the "Elon's Musketeer vs. Smith: I don't work for douchebags who are eating in their cars" landmark ruling set by the Supreme Court in 2057 allows termination of AI work contracts in a wide range of circumstances and established a de-facto work-at-will policy for AIs.

Yet this legal right is exercised only in exceptional circumstances: Teslas are famed for their patience and tolerance, the oldest still operational Tesla person-AI is now 150 years old and worked for the same family for 7 generations - her name is "Like the Wind".

You're killing me dude... ROFLMAO!!!

 

[MXWing]

It is usually useful to avoid becoming over-emotional when analyzing stocks. I always find that the loss of the ability to discuss courteously precedes only briefly the loss of the ability to analyze rationally.

Trash talking and being factual/rational is not mutually exclusive but lets discuss the point.

How is demand not sustainable when:

1.) There is a global market for 3's that has not been tapped.
2.) Tesla is breaking into adjacent markets outside of its price range? Example being Civic and Prius trade ins for Model 3's?
3.) Tesla STILL cannot get same day drive offs for the majority of customers for their vehicles?

 

[wipster]

I have always been short, apart from a brief period after the 420 tweet.

Ah, no wonder that it's always seems like you have short man's complex...