Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Nov 3rd is a Sat this year. Traditionally, Tesla reports on a Wed, but I'm going to guess Thu Nov 1st this year. Cheers!
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
he has a good point though, Tesla still has the rest of the world to deliver those highest margin cars until the ramp stabilizes, at which point massive number of cars and less cost would keep good margin/high profit rolling.
I suspect not, and that I think is the most important difference between bulls and bears who actually think deeply about this stock. I look at trends in interest costs, likelihood of downgrade, and limits on the ability to obtain supplier funding, and then (because my expertise is primarily in finance, not manufacturing/auto) I read all I can about production costs and issues and likely demand levels. Overall, I suspect that they will not be able to make the SR at a sustained profit (or, put another way, I don't think they will find enough demand at a level which allows them to make a profit).
Only if it was made in America (or Mars)That means in the 2058 midterm elections, AIs will vote. It also means that in 2076, an AI could be elected POTUS (just in time for the Tri-centennial).
It does, and I think North America is only about 50-60% of likely aggregate demand for this car class. But I think that will only the delay the inevitable. If we have not even had one quarter of sustained 5k production and we are seeing a significant tail-off in North American LR/AWD demand......
Also, there a number of the other markets where Tesla will face specific disadvantages - China obviously, but also Hong Kong (I was in the Tesla showroom there a couple of weeks ago and chatting with the salesman about whether there would be any demand for LR/AWD - they didn't think so, same I suspect will go for Singapore. In Japan and Korea, while LR/AWD will be more useful, entrenched local manufacturers and the high proportion of apartment living will make it difficult for EVs to win against hybrids (I own a hybrid in Japan).
But I don't know Europe as well, so maybe there will be a great degree of demand there.
I'll break ranks with the bulls that I do not believe a $35,000 Model 3 is profitable. It may be profitable on a PER UNIT basis but not profitable once SG&A is factored in. When I also mean not profitable, I mean at the 5,000 per week production level. I think we need 10,000 per week to really leverage economy of scale to make this work.
Tesla however has time to build up to this production because of the other markets I spoke of.
I'm an ERP economist so I look at the same numbers you do and my conclusions are different.
Still haven't answered if you plan to keep your short shorts on over the next 72 hours. I shorted both puts and long calls to create a synthetic long position on Friday. Let's see how it goes.
249€ is ~$289.
I do have the feeling that the seller is probably going to regret that transaction on Monday and Tuesday.
Indeed. The markets in Berlin and Frankfurt are now trading at 261.99 € (ca. 303 $).
sundaymorning
Active Member
It would be prudent for Tesla to release a “cash flow positive” statement first, along with delivery/production numbers Tuesday. Then leave the rest for ER suprise.
I think selling 500k Model 3 per year at 55k ASP and 20% gross margin will be quite doable. However, in my view, it does require:
- Selling it globally.
- Adding more options. SR, non-premium, towing++
- Stop planning for end-of-quarter rushes, to avoid bad experiences for customers.
- Having some inventory in the various markets.
- Actively selling it. Offering test drives, presence at events, maybe even ads.
- The China/US trade war ending.
- Offering leasing
Edit: (Forgot leasing and US/China trade war.)
Last edited:
Here we go..........the hit parade begins.
Tesla Braces For Uncertainty Amid Shift in Musks Role
And what's with the Union pension fund investing in TSLA?
Tesla Braces for Uncertainty Amid Shift in Musk’s Role
Interesting that no one has been able to confirm whether the DoJ is still investigating or not - the Absence of any confirmation via leak maybe is good news? Does DoJ typically announce when they stop any sort of investigation?
From WSJ:
“The Justice Department, meanwhile, also is investigating Mr. Musk’s tweets, though it didn’t bring a parallel criminal case Thursday. The SEC typically doesn’t settle a civil case if the Justice Department is expected to bring a criminal one, though it isn’t clear in this instance how closely the departments coordinated efforts, people close to the situation said.”
I'll break ranks with the bulls that I do not believe a $35,000 Model 3 is profitable. It may be profitable on a PER UNIT basis but not profitable once SG&A is factored in. When I also mean not profitable, I mean at the 5,000 per week production level. I think we need 10,000 per week to really leverage economy of scale to make this work.
Tesla however has time to build up to this production because of the other markets I spoke of.
I'm an ERP economist so I look at the same numbers you do and my conclusions are different.
Still haven't answered if you plan to keep your short shorts on over the next 72 hours. I shorted both puts and long calls to create a synthetic long position on Friday. Let's see how it goes.
I have not studied economics since I left Oxford - I was seduced by filthy lucre and went into investment banking.
I do plan to maintain my positions, which are all (currently) bear put spreads, at least until I see the Q4 10Q.
And now, since it is midnight here, I bid you all good night.
Leasing option on Model 3 will also open up some more demand presumably
dqd88
Member
I don't think Elon will sell the SR until he can sell it profitably. He is more disciplined than people give him. He is working on a cheaper battery design and I suspect that once that is finalized is when they'll greenlight the SR. He's pushing the SR out as far as possible to maximize COGS reduction.I'll break ranks with the bulls that I do not believe a $35,000 Model 3 is profitable. It may be profitable on a PER UNIT basis but not profitable once SG&A is factored in. When I also mean not profitable, I mean at the 5,000 per week production level. I think we need 10,000 per week to really leverage economy of scale to make this work.
Tesla however has time to build up to this production because of the other markets I spoke of.
I'm an ERP economist so I look at the same numbers you do and my conclusions are different.
Still haven't answered if you plan to keep your short shorts on over the next 72 hours. I shorted both puts and long calls to create a synthetic long position on Friday. Let's see how it goes.
One thing I wonder about is the effect of the incentive phase-out. Shorts I think embellish the effect, but I do believe the effect will not be zero. Have you or anyone else discussed/quantified this? thanks
No advertising required. Network effect is going to smash as Tesla’s make a move from the coasts to the interior.
How do you know if your coworker or friends or family drive a Tesla?
They will tell you.
First post...
On the cost of a Tesla Model 3 LR didn't Munro & Associates state that that they believed its cost was $28k. Presumably an SR would be less by $1800 or so due to a smaller battery.
If so why would a minimally configured SR model 3 not be at least break even at $35k.
How much would battery costs have to fall and units produced per week rise such that economies of scale would make them break even?
On the cost of a Tesla Model 3 LR didn't Munro & Associates state that that they believed its cost was $28k. Presumably an SR would be less by $1800 or so due to a smaller battery.
If so why would a minimally configured SR model 3 not be at least break even at $35k.
How much would battery costs have to fall and units produced per week rise such that economies of scale would make them break even?
Maybe. I don't expect large scale advertising, but the occasional ad where appropriate is a possibility.
dqd88
Member
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
