$50 is a good short squeeze so that was why I used $320. But $350-400 works for me.
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bdy0627
Active Member
This is the way I see it. It's one of the only ways to make sense of the stock's pattern over the years. Trading against this short term is perilous. The Bollinger Bands are one of the simpler ways to track it. It also jumps out when you spreadsheet the stock's movement over years. The reason it's not so easy to trade on this information is that there are substantial anomalies from time to time. We've actually had several of those recently.
I hope everyone can hang in there....7 years of watching this damn stock says a reversal is imminent.
Margin trails account status...by a day or two. If you watched your account....you saw you had margin ability last Friday morning that was substantial...but the stock had dropped AH the day before and continued to plummet on Friday. This was margin ability that vaporized by the next week in spite of the rebound. If you bought that dip with margin, you felt pretty good about yourself....but if you didn’t sell on Monday, you’re now facing a margin call even though you bought last Friday at the bottom...you bought with margin that you weren’t supposed to have.
One thing that volatility has affected is typical margin borrowing requirements....the ability to buy on margin without a house call has been tightened up severely for TSLA in the wake of the funding secured tweet. It’s all action with a reasonable explanation that certainly looks irrational as F on the surface. Institutions know all this and are certainly helping the process along so those retail investors give back their “sale” merchandise.
Margin trails account status...by a day or two. If you watched your account....you saw you had margin ability last Friday morning that was substantial...but the stock had dropped AH the day before and continued to plummet on Friday. This was margin ability that vaporized by the next week in spite of the rebound. If you bought that dip with margin, you felt pretty good about yourself....but if you didn’t sell on Monday, you’re now facing a margin call even though you bought last Friday at the bottom...you bought with margin that you weren’t supposed to have.
One thing that volatility has affected is typical margin borrowing requirements....the ability to buy on margin without a house call has been tightened up severely for TSLA in the wake of the funding secured tweet. It’s all action with a reasonable explanation that certainly looks irrational as F on the surface. Institutions know all this and are certainly helping the process along so those retail investors give back their “sale” merchandise.
At this point "short squeeze" is a pipe-dream that you have to let go off.
A break-even (or marginally positive) Q3 will not scare any short, they will double down claiming it is a one time thing achieved by cooking the books. More positive Q4 may shake a few small player shorts, but only if margin called — which needs significant institutional buying first. However, at higher prices there will be just as many new shorts jumping in. The real big shorts have a lot of money in other plays, they will not be margin called. There are also die hard haters such as Spiegel who will hold on and unwilling to admit they were wrong all along.
Yesterday everyone got upset with me for picking $264.20 as this weeks closing price. It was tongue in cheek with the 420.
To my surprise, we just crossed that number... In all honesty, I am at a loss to explain today's price action unless some big institution is selling out.
To my surprise, we just crossed that number... In all honesty, I am at a loss to explain today's price action unless some big institution is selling out.
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I have owned AMD stock for more than 15 years since around 1999. It made me immune to 20% swings. It also made me very careful not to fall in love with a certain stock. And yet here I am, fallen in love with TSLA.
I tend to agree....a trend is based on at least 3 data points. My concern is the market will want to see Q3, Q4, then Q1 before confirming a new “normal”. Watch BB for entries and exits and stay away from margin and options unless you’re one smart cat who has all day to watch the fireworks. I hope Q3 does the trick but it may “just” firm up the $290ish floor....barring any black swans that tip the whole stock market apple cart over...
I would agree with the first part of that sentence, at least from his behaviour the last several months.
On the one minute chart there is no support here. Keep powder dry. I don’t expect anything nearby to hold. Don’t put your faith in nice juicy round numbers here.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
cheshire cat
Member
Sudre
Active Member
Just before leaving on vacation my charger went out. I can still use supercharges but I might as well get it fixed as I pass thru Indianapolis. While here I find lots of new cars ready for delivery but I notice something the Bears don’t that I thought I would point out for you.
Having time to go out and actually count all the new cars I discovered that these huge lots of cars sitting is a false narrative. It’s really around 75 cars. A mix of SEX is on the lot.
15 are prepped for delivery. I know it seems that should slim down the lot fast but note the truck in the lot unloading. As fast as they hand off a car, another rolls off a delivery truck.
When in St Louis they even sold their showroom car. And here’s a sign of good Tesla service..... We left from St. Louis yesterday. The night before at home there was some strange power surged that angered my solar inverters and I think cooked my charger in the car since it was charging when it happened. Before I left I stopped by the St Louis Service center. They tested to make sure the supercharge part still worked. I was already stopping here in Indianapolis so they called ahead and confirmed the parts were here and pushed me ahead of everyone else this morning to get me on my way.
I think that’s all good news to me. I know if I had stopped at the GM dealer in St Louis with a Bolt they would discourage me from going to the dealer across the street much less to another dealer a few states away. None of that with Tesla. They are all one team. I also wonder if other electric cars have any kind of backup charging like the Supercharger network. Technically I don’t have to get the charger repaired since I can supercharge during the entire trip.
So ignore the market movement today and rest assured that sooner or later the SP will go back up. See I don’t see any people walking out of the store here before getting their car. Things are moving smoothly.
Having time to go out and actually count all the new cars I discovered that these huge lots of cars sitting is a false narrative. It’s really around 75 cars. A mix of SEX is on the lot.
15 are prepped for delivery. I know it seems that should slim down the lot fast but note the truck in the lot unloading. As fast as they hand off a car, another rolls off a delivery truck.
When in St Louis they even sold their showroom car. And here’s a sign of good Tesla service..... We left from St. Louis yesterday. The night before at home there was some strange power surged that angered my solar inverters and I think cooked my charger in the car since it was charging when it happened. Before I left I stopped by the St Louis Service center. They tested to make sure the supercharge part still worked. I was already stopping here in Indianapolis so they called ahead and confirmed the parts were here and pushed me ahead of everyone else this morning to get me on my way.
I think that’s all good news to me. I know if I had stopped at the GM dealer in St Louis with a Bolt they would discourage me from going to the dealer across the street much less to another dealer a few states away. None of that with Tesla. They are all one team. I also wonder if other electric cars have any kind of backup charging like the Supercharger network. Technically I don’t have to get the charger repaired since I can supercharge during the entire trip.
So ignore the market movement today and rest assured that sooner or later the SP will go back up. See I don’t see any people walking out of the store here before getting their car. Things are moving smoothly.
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humbaba
sleeping until $7000
It still has to drop at least $13 more. I'm not holding my breath for it, but here's hoping.
I am team Elon but I don't quite agree with this. Apparently he is pissed and frustrated just as we are when a rock solid delivery actually tank SP.
Note the SP dropped a lot after the delivery number BEFORE his tweet. And this is with surprisingly high AWD mix which would be more difficult to achieve. I am suspecting the forward looking statements in the delivery report was removed due to SEC's pressure.
He does not have a lot of option either. One of which is actually taking Tesla private, on the cheap, hurting some bulls and letting the short loose but off of his back. Another one is consistent profit, which won't show until April 2019.
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm confused. You are coming across as a Fudster, lashing out and trying to amplify the anxieties of longs here, yet your profile shows you have been here since 2013. Are you one of the original Fudsters or did you lose your way somewhere?
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