TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MXWing]

Just as Tesla's delivery systems cracked under the strain in Q3, the common belief is the global electrical grids may not even be able to handle the load of the transition until 2050 or later. I guess we could all drive around with tall solar arrays mounted on the roof but I see that as being useful for about 20 miles per day, a safety concern when pulling into a garage, and completely worthless in winter

HELP ME.

I can't understand things..

There's no demand, so why is the delivery system strained?

And why would Tesla have problems with replacement parts?

It would make sense to me to stop building cars that there is no demand for and stock replacement parts with them instead?

I can run my Model 3 and X entirely off of my roof. With powerwalls, I wouldn't even need a utility company.

What's this about a global electrical grid?

Also, no demand, so no strain on the grid.

 

[shrspeedblade]

Where on earth did you get that from my remarks? The growth PACE was what I was referring to not overall sales. Look at Model S and X sales growth over the last 5 quarters. They only spike as a result of discounts and incentives but for the most part are flat. I see Model 3 production globally peaking at about 8-9,000 per week. Model Y will seriously eat into that number so we can expect to see both built on the same production lines like S & X.

NO need to get emotional. It is just an opinion.

No need to worry about me, most of what you type is so deep in the realm of confirmation bias as to only get annoying when it so deeply enters the realm of unreality in regard to how auto sales work. I don't care for beer anyway.

Consider: say a random company comes out with a random electric car that's so revolutionary that hundreds of thousands of people place reservations and wait years for it, a first in the auto industry. Now, I nor no one else knows for sure just what percentage will be of buyers in the first 10 years of sales since it is so unprecedented, but looking at other products and technologies that triggered a similar instance and response one would logically conclude that it is only a small fraction. Most people want to sit in, drive, and not have a long wait in nearly all car purchases, so the delayed adoption would be even larger than for an iPhone, flatscreen, etc.

In short, I find your thesis highly suspect, but I strongly suspect we could sit across a table over dinner and have a amiable yet spirited disagreement as to why.

 

[Jayjs20]

“Banks only want to offer you money when you don't need it".

That's changed a bit these days.

Similar to the Mafia of old, many PE firms will loan you the money with the expection that you can’t pay it off.

Ultimate goal = to take control of the company.

Wait, so if Tesla can pay it off, the bank wins, and if Tesla can't pay it off, the bank wins. And we're sitting here questioning why the bank would do what they're doing?

 

[beachbum77]

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View attachment 341498

Here is the source of today’s manufactured rumor. Straight from the crime playbook. This is the “reporter” from the fox video everyone with Apple stock app has seen today.

If it isn’t clear the objective is a hostile take over, it should be very clear now.

Sunlight is the best disinfectant.

The posts are fake! Charlie uses Grammarly. This moron did not

 

[beachbum77]

No need to worry about me, most of what you type is so deep in the realm of confirmation bias as to only get annoying when it so deeply enters the realm of unreality in regard to how auto sales work. I don't care for beer anyway.

Consider: say a random company comes out with a random electric car that's so revolutionary that hundreds of thousands of people place reservations and wait years for it, a first in the auto industry. Now, I nor no one else knows for sure just what percentage will be of buyers in the first 10 years of sales since it is so unprecedented, but looking at other products and technologies that triggered a similar instance and response one would logically conclude that it is only a small fraction. Most people want to sit in, drive, and not have a long wait in nearly all car purchases, so the delayed adoption would be even larger than for an iPhone, flatscreen, etc.

In short, I find your thesis highly suspect, but I strongly suspect we could sit across a table over dinner and have a amiable yet spirited disagreement as to why.

Now I like that idea! Best argument eats for free? We will need an unbiased judge. I will bring my girlfriend. LOL.

 

[kelly]

My boss is a right wing person and is constantly crowing to me about everything negative about Tesla that he hears in the media. His only media source is Fox News, by the way.

Yehhh you have my sympathy------worked for a lot of idiots myself over the years, idiots promoted largely by idiots who did not want to feel challenged .

My boss is actually a nice guy. He is super smart and funny as hell. I have really enjoyed working with him for the past three years. I just don't agree with his politics.

 

[NikeWings]

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Those are Amazon bonds. Obviously, Tesla bonds have slid more because they have a substantially lower rating and weaker balance sheet than Amazon, but the trajectory is the same. You can see the big drops when rate rises were announced.

Exactly my point (emphasis above mine) ......the rates are only part of the decline in the bond price, not the sole reason for the decline. And FWIW everyone here should be monitoring TSLA bond prices too. Critical indicators. Thank you for the chart.

 

[Artful Dodger]

i thought the production ramp “investigation” was already over and cleared about statements made in 2016-2017???

is this just old recycled BS?

A judge dismissed a civil suit making those claims a while ago. This new b.s. is a claim that SEC is now investigating the claims that were dismissed. Sad.

 

[beachbum77]

Q2 was artificially boosted by the need to avoid tolling the 200k limit for the tax credit.

Demand - as with all of Tesla's other models in the past - self-inflates with time as word-of-mouth spreads (positive reactions and experiences from friends replacing FUD). Doesn't just happen with Teslas, it happens with all new vehicle tech (remember the same thing happening with the Prius?). Eventually Tesla will need to pull some demand levers, such as leases. But so far, it's the same rollout pattern as the S and X.

Karen, S & X sales have peaked at about 100K annually. I see Model 3 at 500K in about 2 years for all variations. Your opinion?

 

[Unpilot]

A judge dismissed a civil suit making those claims a while ago. This new b.s. is a claim that SEC is now investigating the claims that were dismissed. Sad.

You know it can be hard for a poor simple country lad like me to keep up.

Is the claim ...the sec (not in caps on purpose) investigating Tesla based in guidance about future production?

What's next an investigation of Tesla for not using yellow hazard tape?

 

[SO16]

Karen, S & X sales have peaked at about 100K annually. I see Model 3 at 500K in about 2 years for all variations. Your opinion?

Since the SUV is the big seller in America, the Model Y and pickups will be bigger movers than the Model 3.

 

[SO16]

HELP ME.

I can't understand things..

There's no demand, so why is the delivery system strained?

And why would Tesla have problems with replacement parts?

It would make sense to me to stop building cars that there is no demand for and stock replacement parts with them instead?

I can run my Model 3 and X entirely off of my roof. With powerwalls, I wouldn't even need a utility company.

What's this about a global electrical grid?

Also, no demand, so no strain on the grid.

The people in the Tesla gallleries picking up the vehicles are just hired actors. If you look closely, they change their outfits and hair style a couple hours later to appear as new people again. /s

 

[beachbum77]

Yeesh.....talk about conspiracy theories.

And yeah, only stupid investors buy and hold. Sure things change so forever may not happen. But weathering this “sky is falling” situation is just par for the course.

Warren Buffett's Advice: Why You Should Buy and Hold

Who said anything about "sky is falling"?

Buffett buys controlling interests in entire companies. Very different strategy. If you bought stock early on in Enron, Worldcom, Valient, Sears, JCPenney, Circuit City, etc. where would you be today? If you think Buffett's people are not constantly re-evaluating holdings you are mistaken.

 

[SO16]

The posts are fake! Charlie uses Grammarly. This moron did not

Which posts are fake?

Twitter

 

[MXWing]

Who said anything about "sky is falling"?

Buffett buys controlling interests in entire companies. Very different strategy. If you bought stock early on in Enron, Worldcom, Valient, Sears, JCPenney, Circuit City, etc. where would you be today? If you think Buffett's people are not constantly re-evaluating holdings you are mistaken.

Buffet gave up on innovating. They sold a fellow dinosaur in IBM and just bought Apple and left the innovating to someone else.

 

[sundaymorning]

View attachment 341524

Those are Amazon bonds. Obviously, Tesla bonds have slid more because they have a substantially lower rating and weaker balance sheet than Amazon, but the trajectory is the same. You can see the big drops when rate rises were announced.

Can you help us with some form of link so members here can read a bit on the bond market, how it compares to Amazon? Thanks.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You know it can be hard for a poor simple country lad like me to keep up.

Is the claim ...the sec (not in caps on purpose) investigating Tesla based in guidance about future production?

What's next an investigation of Tesla for not using yellow hazard tape?

Well we don't know what, or even if, any investigation is ongoing. Which is of course the Uncertainty part of spreading FUD. The rumor spreading is the investigation is about Fall 2017 production, the dismissed civil case. "if you lose in court once, try try again with a different investigation". As I've commented before, the GOP is still trying to undo FDR's New Deal from 85 years ago. And some of them would like to reopen negotiations on the Emancipation Act, ffs.

At times like these, I recall the words of a personal hero, savior, and role model George S. Patton Jr.:

"Never take councel of your fears".

 

[SO16]

Who said anything about "sky is falling"?

Buffett buys controlling interests in entire companies. Very different strategy. If you bought stock early on in Enron, Worldcom, Valient, Sears, JCPenney, Circuit City, etc. where would you be today? If you think Buffett's people are not constantly re-evaluating holdings you are mistaken.

In your original post, you go on about how it’s stupid to buy and hold forever and then go on about Elon possibly wanting to get fired, etc. You know what you implied.

Of course they constantly evaluate. But to automatically assume they would sell based on this situation, is also mistaken.

 

[EVNow]

A suprisingly short time; it should be largely over by 2030. Maybe even 2025, but probably not.

What is this time period for ? More EVs sold than ICE ? More EVs in stock than ICE ?

For the former (EVs have 50% market share of new vehicles sold), 2030 is possible in the US and some other countries. Unlikely in ROW. Given how many years cars live, the latter is not possible.

But, what is more possible is a big contraction in new car market because of FSD. So, not that EVs will sell like 50 M a year (50% of worldwide market today) but 50% of the market in 2030 - which might only be 10 Million.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Since the SUV is the big seller in America, the Model Y and pickups will be bigger movers than the Model 3.

I’m not much on how corporate finances work but I imagine Tesla will need money to build additional lines to finance things like the model Y (the one we think would suit us) or even the semi. With all of the negativity surrounding the Tesla and Musk name in the USA is their even any hope of the company finding this money? How would it be done. What financial instruments could be used.

I can’t help but wonder if it wouldn’t be a good idea on the part of Tesla to start a separate company based out of europe and simply export vehicles to North America. It would avoid the hostility and ever increasing corruption of the US political environment as well as provide easier logistics to a very large customer base in Europe. Would investors be easier to find? No idea but I can’t help but wonder if bailing on a very unwelcoming society might not be going thru his head right now. Interesting times.