TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Freder Reeve]

Seems needlessly unkind. I would wish success for any investor, long or short.

Personally I don't see Shorts as "Investors". Shouldn't be protected as such, either.

 

[HopJokey]

Personally I don't see Shorts as "Investors". Shouldn't be protected as such, either.

Market participant is a more accurate representation.

 

[Tslynk67]

Market participant is a more accurate representation.

I prefer the term "a shower of shite"

 

[Foghat]

When do you think we will see sales ramp up outside North America?

Just my opinion, but the summer of 2019.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's extraordinary how there isn't really a battle at the reversal each time, particularly at the bottom. Almost as if the major players have silently agreed to trade it that way. It's certainly possible that some large institutions are dumping shares this time, but since we've seen this movie several times recently, it seems more likely to be happening for similar reasons rather than new ones. That's my thought anyway.

Note that the reversal today coincided with NASDAQ reversal (or at least a relief rally), and TSLA is strongly coupled to NASDAQ.

Much of the recent fall from $300 levels coincided with the big NASAQ correction of 5%, which would normally correlate with a 10-15% TSLA drop - i.e. over 80% of the recent drop can be explained with just correlation.

I don't say it was the only factor, but it was most likely the primary factor. Another factor were @KarenRei's prayers for better entry prices, without a change to fundamentals, which were granted by the NASDAQ gods.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

JB has been maintaining a low pubic profile, even before he was omitted as the only other "indispensable employee" in the Risk Factors discussion. IMO, his presentations were always content rich on the technology and delivered in an appealing, straightforward manner. He has become an under-used resource for promoting a positive public image.

That's for sure. Give that guy a Twitter account!

 

[carterm2]

xx

$TSLA short interest is $8.16 billion, the 4th largest U.S. short behind $AAPL, $AMZN & $QCOM; 32.58 million shares shorted; 25.55% of float. 1.2 million shares covered over the last week as #Tesla's stock price fell 17%. Shorts up $416 million in mark-to-market October profits

By no means is TSLA behind AAPL in short interest!

Just so we are clear on understanding the short interest comparison between TSLA and AAPL. (not really necessary to go into AMZN etc)

AAPL (short interest/mkt cap = 7%)
Mkt cap 1.09T
P/E ratio 20.53
Short float - .97%


TSLA (short interest/mkt cap = 8.16B/45B = 18%) !!!
Mkt cap 44.93B. (Value was 64.75B Aug 7 2018). So it is now easier to take private... $19.82 Billion easier.
P/E ratio - No Value. (likely to become a very large number very soon)
Short float - 26.22%

Two important points being made here... the percentage of Short interest in AAPL relative to Market Cap puts TESLA in First Place!

Meaning the shorties have greater control over the direction of the stock, and there is a lot less of a risk in AAPL investing relative to short pressure.


Does this mean there is a possibility for a short squeeze... What do you think? IMHO That ship sailed with the 420 tweet... Going private on the other hand, much more likely, and probably a good deal if you got into the stock well below $25x. and you are not a retail investor.


AAPL

Settlement Date, Short Interest, Avg Daily Share Volume, Days To Cover
9/14/2018 ..... 46,818,683..... 36,781,006..... 1.272904.....

TSLA

Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
9/14/2018..... 33,459,061..... 10,291,531..... 3.251126.....



Nasdaq as source above....






Fintel.io as source...below

 

[phil0909]

I prefer the term "a shower of shite"

How about "fellow human being"?

 

[wipster]

When do you think we will see sales ramp up outside North America?

When they start selling them...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Looks to me like TSLA is ignoring a slump in tech right now, mirroring its ignoring of the recovery yesterday.

 

[phil0909]

Just my opinion, but the summer of 2019.

Wow, that late? Do the Europeans know about this?

Actually, I'm expecting substantial foreign sales in Q1, though I don't recall any recent guidance on this from Tesla...

 

[Fact Checking]

By no means is TSLA behind AAPL in short interest!

Ihor is calculating based on absolute value shorted.

I do agree that short interest as a percentage of float matters too, especially at the ridiculously high 25%+ short interest levels of TSLA:

• higher percentages take longer to reduce significantly, and have a larger effect on the price
• a short position closed also destroys the artificial long shares that were created by NASDAQ when the short position was initiated - which reduces effective float and reduces supply of shares. A true long buying has no effect on effective float.

This effects can snowball, especially when the valuation of a company shifts up due to much better fundamentals.

Not at $250-ish price levels though.

 

[Tslynk67]

How about "fellow human being"?

If they cared for their fellow humans they wouldn't be shorting Tesla, why don't they piss-off and short coal instead...

 

[cheshire cat]

I prefer the term "a shower of shite"

Stop beating around the bush and tell us what you rrrrealy think

 

[SpaceCash]

Yeah that FUD got some big momentum over the weekend. That guy is a POS. Why doesn't Murdoch fire him?!

It really irks me that Murdoch allows this stuff

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

How do you know that Elon didn't arrange for his pledged shares to not be lent out? (You can do that but then you have to pay more in interest.)

Fair point. It’s possible. But it’s much more common for the lender to be allowed to, and we haven’t heard anything to the contrary.

If those shares are available to be shorted, Elon should take that away from short sellers as suddenly and as silently as possible. No warning, no taunting, no Twitter. Dish served cold.

Pledging SpaceX shares makes the most sense to me, but it could be done with a higher interest rate instead, or even a sale of some SpaceX shares (I believe Elon currently has 78% of the vote in SpaceX) to pay off the loans. Any of those approaches would have the same effect on the market.

 

[DaveT]

Alright, here’s part 2 in my blog post series. After all parts are done I’m hoping to put it altogether in one post. Please PM me if you have any ideas on how we can get Elon to read the final compilation.

DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 2: The Turning Tide - Why Elon vs SEC might have a very bad ending"

Also, I'm looking for quality feedback. Just @ me in the thread so I can see it.

I share some deeper thoughts on what’s going on with Elon and Twitter in part 3 of my blog series.
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 3: The Turning Tide - Why Elon is being judged so harshly for his tweets"

Here’s an excerpt:

“Elon knows that innovation and progress come from better ideas, and not from position, tradition or hierarchy. Thus, Elon correctly pushes and asserts for a culture of meritocracy in all his endeavors. However, at times Elon will take those values onto Twitter and engage in debating or arguing with people, believing that the best idea will win. However, most often his arguing on Twitter is taken the wrong way at least by some people and it’s been a net negative for Elon. The reason for this is because Twitter by nature is a lopsided platform and there are a lot of mean people on Twitter. Let me explain…”

 

[dqd88]

How about "fellow human being"?

shorts that lie in order to hurt SP and hurt Tesla are on par with cockroaches.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

How about "fellow human being"?

I'm not sure I buy the idea that it's necessary to wish every "fellow human being" well, particularly when we're talking about finances, not in terms of physical health or safety. There are certainly some people I wouldn't mind seeing lose a lot of money.

To the point: Do I want Chanos/Spiegel to be physically harmed? No, absolutely not. Would I be sad to see them driven homeless by a sudden rise in TSLA stock? No, absolutely not.

 

[supratachophobia]

I share some deeper thoughts on what’s going on with Elon and Twitter in part 3 of my blog series.
DaveT on Chatstarter: "Part 3: The Turning Tide - Why Elon is being judged so harshly for his tweets"

Here’s an excerpt:

“Elon knows that innovation and progress come from better ideas, and not from position, tradition or hierarchy. Thus, Elon correctly pushes and asserts for a culture of meritocracy in all his endeavors. However, at times Elon will take those values onto Twitter and engage in debating or arguing with people, believing that the best idea will win. However, most often his arguing on Twitter is taken the wrong way at least by some people and it’s been a net negative for Elon. The reason for this is because Twitter by nature is a lopsided platform and there are a lot of mean people on Twitter. Let me explain…”

Ehhhh, sure does seem more childish and knee-jerk than engaging in meaningful discussion..... Besides, with all the detritus on Twitter, that is *hardly* the medium to conduct meaningful discussion; between the religious fanbois and oil shills, there is no way the cream can rise to the top of that mess.