TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Ratanpara]

The way stock is acting today, yes there was upgrade but it seems someone know court outcome already? Is it on this Thursday ?

 

[tivoboy]

this whole reservation/pent-up demand thing skews your vision. the way i look at it, every day 260k people buy a car. regardless of reservations, if m3 were just out there in the open market like every other car, today 0.5% of those 260k would buy it, or 1300/day. that will increase as awareness increases, peaking at around 2% or 5,200/day, 1.9M/year. Hard to say what the final mix of LR vs SR will be, maybe 50/50 with ASP of $50k. SR production is dependent on battery cost which they are working on. I take Elon at his word that he won't deliver SR until he can do so profitably.
Once SR comes out, you'll be able to buy the safest car in the world for $35k, combined w/ design, speed, comfort, software, zero emissions, low maintenance cost, it will frankly be the most compelling car in the world. Why would you buy anything else?

I would just point out that this 260K number is a WORLD WIDE all vehicles number. In all of North America the number is closer to 45K at most and shrinking and in the USA for passenger cars only it would be closer to 18K

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Maye Musk turning some attention to the question of a Chanos/CNBC/NYT connection.





Interesting.... Well, we are aware of 100% negative
@Tesla
headlines from
@nytimes
and
@CNBC
Does anyone want check how many are created by Sonnenfeld and Chanos? #CleanEnergyWillWin #pravduh
Quote Tweet


Twitter

Those with twitter accounts can encourage her curiosity,

I’m happy it’s Maye instead of Elon, but I’d prefer none of this be on Twitter, even from small-time investors like us.

Tesla’s social media presence should be relentlessly positive, just as Tesla’s mission is relentlessly positive for the world.

While issues with shorts and media should be thought through carefully, Elon should keep that private with family, trusted friends, and financial/legal advisors. Not on Twitter.

Likewise, I think retail investors should think through these issues on this forum, not on Twitter. When a random member of the public sees something about Tesla, it should be stories about how great the cars are & how much people love them, not arguments with trolls. I’m trying to be better about this with my own Twitter use.

 

[DaveT]

I’m happy it’s Maye instead of Elon, but I’d prefer none of this be on Twitter, even from small-time investors like us..

Maybe Elon got a hold of his mother's Twitter login/password.

 

[MP3Mike]

The way stock is acting today, yes there was upgrade but it seems someone know court outcome already? Is it on this Thursday ?

There is no schedule for an "outcome". The joint Elon/SEC letter has to be filed with the court Thursday. Then the judge has to look at it and decide what to do next. (How long did she take to review the initial settlement and request the letter?)

 

[SW2Fiddler]

I’m happy it’s Maye instead of Elon, but I’d prefer none of this be on Twitter, even from small-time investors like us.

Tesla’s social media presence should be relentlessly positive, just as Tesla’s mission is relentlessly positive for the world.

I've seen this movie.
Jon Favreau's character imperils his own career in a tweet-war, a family member tweets much more successfully promoting the food truck, they drive it coast to coast, are a big hit and Aaron Franklin saves four briskets for them. His Twitter adversary SPOILERSPOILERSPOILER "Private Party" The End.
And the soundtrack is frunking awesome!

 

[M3Rider]

I would just point out that this 260K number is a WORLD WIDE all vehicles number. In all of North America the number is closer to 45K at most and shrinking and in the USA for passenger cars only it would be closer to 18K

Model 3 should be more popular in Europe with their space issues. We need Y+CUV+truck and, hopefully, it will not take decades for them to arrive...I would have taken Y instead of 3, but it's fun to drive and was available sooner.

 

[bdy0627]

What's this battle at $264/265 all about? I see that Option Sniper notes it as critical. Pulitzer doesn't mention it at all. Getting above yesterday's open? Seems like a nicely positive day regardless that it's hard to understand how it will cause a huge fade if not closing over $264. Any thoughts?

 

[brian45011]

There is a note of about $900 million in bonds due in March. Tesla should be adding cash to its $2.2 billion in reserves from now till then to pay off debt (remember we should be cash flow positive this quarter). Also, Elon has stated many times that we should be highly cash flow positive in the 4th quarter. To expand production from 5k/ week to 10k/ week would only cost the company minimally, around $100 million in Capex. Hence, we should have a lot of time and plenty of money to cover those incoming debt as well as to expand production.

Make no mistake about it, Tesla can raise money at will. Elon can also leverage SpaceX to finance debt. Would you rather trust a random guy on the internet, who is basically shorting? Or Elon, someone who has a perfect track record in raising capital and has stated “I would have to be totally incapacitated to give up.” I don’t see him giving up when SpaceX is basically a cash cow, worth in the vicinity of $30 billion. Borrowing a few billion against that value shouldn’t be a problem imo.

"Yeah, our default plan is we pay – we start paying off our debts. I don't mean refi-ing them, I mean paying them off. For example, there's a convert that's coming due soon, a couple hundred million, (42:13) $900 million, (41:28) something like that. We expect to pay that off with internally generated cash flow."​

 

[HopJokey]

What's this battle at $264/265 all about? I see that Option Sniper notes it as critical. Pulitzer doesn't mention it at all. Getting above yesterday's open? Seems like a nicely positive day regardless that it's hard to understand how it will cause a huge fade if not closing over $264. Any thoughts?

It’s just a pivot point on his charts which is based on pattern matching of previous price movements.

It’s critical to understand Option Snipers audience when digesting his info. His followers mostly look for momentum plays via long short term options, calls or puts. Thus his is saying that odds are favorable for a quick price move up if TSLA closes above $264 today.

 

[defc0n]

What's this battle at $264/265 all about? I see that Option Sniper notes it as critical. Pulitzer doesn't mention it at all. Getting above yesterday's open? Seems like a nicely positive day regardless that it's hard to understand how it will cause a huge fade if not closing over $264. Any thoughts?

Meaningless to me. The bounce off 248-252 support is the only thing that matters to me technically short term. Just need to avoid any bad news/tweets at this point and get past Q3.

 

[lklundin]

So, we wait for news from The Future Investment Initiative conference [FII].

Yes. I must admit that to me the previous FII was a bit of a disappointment, since a chatbot combined with a mannequin more or less was represented as if artificial humans are a thing,
Sophia (robot) - Wikipedia

So I will be sure to give the next FII a very careful look.

 

[bdy0627]

It’s just a pivot point on his charts which is based on pattern matching of previous price movements.

It’s critical to understand Option Snipers audience when digesting his info. His followers mostly look for momentum plays via long short term options, calls or puts. Thus his is saying that odds are favorable for a quick price move up if TSLA closes above $264 today.

Ok, that's helpful. Thanks. I have found Sniper's use of "huge" (as in a huge fade if it closes below $264) can mean just a few points, which is huge in the short term options world but relatively meaningless to me.

 

[dqd88]

Sort of makes the coming payoffs even more of a non-issue. Absolute worst case, Tesla gets loan from the bank of Elon.

This made me think, SpaceX is a lever that Elon can use for various things; the Macquerie report talks about levers but not spacex.

 

[dqd88]

They are highly resistant to radiation. Could more easily make it to Mars than humans. Maybe they made that trip in reverse already. I know, off topic.

Intl Professor / Entomology Professor

 

[Tslynk67]

SP doing today what I expected yesterday. Seems to have disassociated itself from NASDAQ, which is understandable given the over-selling.

I guess shorts are wary to be jumping back in right now on the risk of a big rise pre- and post-Q3EC. There's a risk for them, though that the results and outlook could be so good that the SP will run away form them.

I would expect a recovery back to 315 before the Q3EC - looking for a similar %age rise to Q2EC, which was around 15%, better to do that from 3XX than 2XX.

I expect the SEC matter to be resolved by end of the week - either they'll write the statement and that's that, or the judge will adapt the settlement one way or the other - given precedents, ought to be in Elon's favour. In ay case, resolving it should add 10% bak to SP.

Even more important than the profits in Q3 will be the Q4 guidance and FLStatements.

Whatever happens, going to be quite a ride!

 

[mongo]

This made me think, SpaceX is a lever that Elon can use for various things; the Macquerie report talks about levers but not spacex.

SpaceX bought Model Xs to transport the astronauts. Who knows how much the up charge is on that version.

Plus, Boring wants skates, favorable terms?

 

[TheMrX]

What's this battle at $264/265 all about? I see that Option Sniper notes it as critical. Pulitzer doesn't mention it at all. Getting above yesterday's open? Seems like a nicely positive day regardless that it's hard to understand how it will cause a huge fade if not closing over $264. Any thoughts?

I like to combine his input with others. We had a low of 244 in spring so getting close to this yesterday at 249 is almost a double bottom (almost, not exactly it but really close). getting to a double bottom indicates a price price movement of some magnitude incoming. As someone else stated on the forum, getting down pass that 244 barrier would lead to something in the 220ish (if that holds). So 264 is only a target needed to achieve if you want to play short term movement. I feel I have to add that option_sniper said ''remember it needs to close above 264 to confirm a bottom otherwise still chance to down big''. ''Still chance'' means that the short term price movement from a technical perspective is not doomed if we don't close above 264, but that 264 IS a strong indicator that we are clear to move up.

So if there is a short/long fight today for the price action not to go down again to 255, 250 244 and bellow, my humble take about his comment is that we have to win this 264 battle or we will face a possibility for next days to go back and test the bottom again (244) where there will be another battle to know if we break down.

 

[brian45011]

As something to do on the side a couple hours a week to cover the cost of your car and then some, my real world experience is it works really well, especially if you actually enjoy doing it. For example my 2nd Gen Volt purchased in 2016 was paid for by my ridesharing along with a trip to France in 2016 and one in Italy in 2017 with more $ to spare. In my Model 3 I'm easily covering payments and we're taking a trip in December.

Do you report the "then some" on a Schedule C and pay 15.4% FICA/Medicare taxes on it?

 

[bdy0627]

SP doing today what I expected yesterday. Seems to have disassociated itself from NASDAQ, which is understandable given the over-selling.

I guess shorts are wary to be jumping back in right now on the risk of a big rise pre- and post-Q3EC. There's a risk for them, though that the results and outlook could be so good that the SP will run away form them.

I would expect a recovery back to 315 before the Q3EC - looking for a similar %age rise to Q2EC, which was around 15%, better to do that from 3XX than 2XX.

I expect the SEC matter to be resolved by end of the week - either they'll write the statement and that's that, or the judge will adapt the settlement one way or the other - given precedents, ought to be in Elon's favour. In ay case, resolving it should add 10% bak to SP.

Even more important than the profits in Q3 will be the Q4 guidance and FLStatements.

Whatever happens, going to be quite a ride!

Tend to agree except $315 is above the battleground $310ish level. I think it either chops between $300-310 or if it gets above that level, then it probably doesn't stop at $315. That would surprise me a little at this point but not a lot.