TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

Tis time for an ethical renaissance.

When not needed?

 

[Freder Reeve]

To the point: Do I want Chanos/Spiegel to be physically harmed? No, absolutely not. Would I be sad to see them driven homeless by a sudden rise in TSLA stock? No, absolutely not.

I dunno man, remember the movie Trading Places? Sure gave me an image of those old dudes turned homeless.

 

[AWDtsla]

How about "fellow human being"?

Just remember that every atrocity in the world was committed by another "fellow human being". You cannot be excused from your behavior by the contents of your genome.

 

[SteveG3]

Maye Musk turning some attention to the question of a Chanos/CNBC/NYT connection.





Interesting.... Well, we are aware of 100% negative
@Tesla
headlines from
@nytimes
and
@CNBC
Does anyone want check how many are created by Sonnenfeld and Chanos? #CleanEnergyWillWin #pravduh
Quote Tweet


Twitter

Those with twitter accounts can encourage her curiosity,

 

[MP3Mike]

Fair point. It’s possible. But it’s much more common for the lender to be allowed to, and we haven’t heard anything to the contrary.

If those shares are available to be shorted, Elon should take that away from short sellers as suddenly and as silently as possible. No warning, no taunting, no Twitter. Dish served cold.

Pledging SpaceX shares makes the most sense to me, but it could be done with a higher interest rate instead, or even a sale of some SpaceX shares (I believe Elon currently has 78% of the vote in SpaceX) to pay off the loans. Any of those approaches would have the same effect on the market.

I think pledging the SpaceX shares would result in a higher interest rate as well because they couldn't be lent out. So there would be no point in doing that. Either pay it off or have the loan setup to have a non-hypothecation clause. (Assuming it isn't already that way.)

I would think that with as much as Elon dislikes the shorts that he would already have made sure his shares weren't lent out.

 

[TheMrX]

It's extraordinary how there isn't really a battle at the reversal each time, particularly at the bottom. Almost as if the major players have silently agreed to trade it that way.

I see a raging battle for 264 since 11:30

Option_Sniper on Twitter

edit : corrected typo ''ranging'' to raging

 

[dqd88]

I have worked MY spreadsheets. My concern is some investors are looking at the Q3 ramp numbers and forgetting these were a result of
1) Hold overs from Q2 to prevent breaking 200K in the U.S. in June.
2) Largely people with reservations for over 2 years.

As far as the U.S. is concerned, Troy's spreadsheet is pretty ugly. Look at the number of new configurations starting in September. Even if this is just 2% of the actual numbers, the rapid decline is worrisome. I also truly expected to see more in-transit units at the end of Q3 then there were at the end of Q2. Instead, the number dropped by over 3,000 units.

Opening up Europe will release the pent-up second wave of reservations. But those deliveries will take much longer to hit revenues. Once those orders are filled in about 6 months what will be left for Model 3? SR deliveries at lower margins? Even if Q3 and Q4 prove profitable I do not see the profits being as high as the last quarterly profit in 3Q16. China will be a huge drag on revenues until GF3 is online or the tariffs are reduced.

this whole reservation/pent-up demand thing skews your vision. the way i look at it, every day 260k people buy a car. regardless of reservations, if m3 were just out there in the open market like every other car, today 0.5% of those 260k would buy it, or 1300/day. that will increase as awareness increases, peaking at around 2% or 5,200/day, 1.9M/year. Hard to say what the final mix of LR vs SR will be, maybe 50/50 with ASP of $50k. SR production is dependent on battery cost which they are working on. I take Elon at his word that he won't deliver SR until he can do so profitably.
Once SR comes out, you'll be able to buy the safest car in the world for $35k, combined w/ design, speed, comfort, software, zero emissions, low maintenance cost, it will frankly be the most compelling car in the world. Why would you buy anything else?

 

[NikeWings]

That's for sure. Give that guy a Twitter account!

He has one; its just very focused on his mission, and not distractions.
Straubel Foundation (@StraubelFdn) | Twitter

 

[ZeApelido]

During his interview with Bloomberg last week, MbS stated the following:

MBS: Actually, we, PIF invests in a lot of companies in the United States of America, especially in the stock market. And Tesla looked like a good opportunity for PIF and we bought a few shares there. We have almost 5% of the company.​

The Prince did not directly answer a question about whether the Saudis plan to invest further in Tesla:

Bloomberg: Do you have any plans to invest more in Tesla?

MBS: We’ve invested in Tesla like any other financial investor in the stock market. There are discussions with a lot of companies, a lot of funds, but we’ve announced nothing in that area.
​

This extended Q&A segment is also of interest to TSLA investors:

Bloomberg: Are you seeing some of this coming in the non-oil sector too? Because oil has been -- historically you’ve seen a lot of oil investments but the crucial thing is non-oil FDI.

MBS: We believe it’s both. We believe we will have an amazing deal in October, in two weeks from today. So it will be big numbers. It will be in FII [The Future Investment Initiative conference] and it’s far away from oil. This deal is just what’s happening in Saudi Arabia – so there is one deal in FII and there are other deals that will be announced there.

Bloomberg: Any details we can get – what industry even?

MBS: It’s far away from oil.

Bloomberg: Is it technology?

MBS: Maybe. But this is in Saudi Arabia with big numbers.

Bloomberg: Is it anything to do with cars?

MBS: We will see. You know, we are two weeks away from that date.
​

So, we wait for news from The Future Investment Initiative conference [FII].

Cheers!

But he also mentioned that battery storage was changing rapidly, and didn't seem interested in making an investment in it right now...

 

[Remus]

this whole reservation/pent-up demand thing skews your vision. the way i look at it, every day 260k people buy a car. regardless of reservations, if m3 were just out there in the open market like every other car, today 0.5% of those 260k would buy it, or 1300/day. that will increase as awareness increases, peaking at around 2% or 5,200/day, 1.9M/year. Hard to say what the final mix of LR vs SR will be, maybe 50/50 with ASP of $50k. SR production is dependent on battery cost which they are working on. I take Elon at his word that he won't deliver SR until he can do so profitably.
Once SR comes out, you'll be able to buy the safest car in the world for $35k, combined w/ design, speed, comfort, software, zero emissions, low maintenance cost, it will frankly be the most compelling car in the world. Why would you buy anything else?

So each time a new iPhone comes out there are people line up outside of the store waiting for hours to get the phone. And after the line disappeared did iPhone sales fall off a cliff?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

The LTV required would therefore be very punitive

Elon’s stake in SpaceX is currently valued at ~$15 billion. Even bears estimate his loans to be less than 5% of that. So an exceptionally low LTV of 10 would still be plenty to cover all his loans, with hundreds of millions to spare.

 

[dqd88]

shorts that lie in order to hurt SP and hurt Tesla are on par with cockroaches.

I apologize for insulting cockroaches. They kinda get a bad rap

 

[dqd88]

So each time a new iPhone comes out there are people line up outside of the store waiting for hours to get the phone. And after the line disappeared did iPhone sales fall off a cliff?

No, exactly. My point was, not very well stated, that using reservation count to determine ongoing future demand is clouding the analysis of the shorts (or perhaps they are using/manipulating that data point to paint their false narrative)

 

[mongo]

Elon’s stake in SpaceX is currently valued at ~$15 billion. Even bears estimate his loans to be less than 5% of that. So an exceptionally low LTV of 10 would still be plenty to cover all his loans, with hundreds of millions to spare.

Sort of makes the coming payoffs even more of a non-issue. Absolute worst case, Tesla gets loan from the bank of Elon.

 

[SpaceCash]

Loving this price action.

There are those just looking for even one good quarter. Q3 is about as good as it will get for the foreseeable future.

Just so wrong. I don't know why this kind of FUD is tolerated

 

[NikeWings]

Loving this price action.

Just so wrong. I don't know why this kind of FUD is tolerated

Maybe he's nearsighted?

 

[Intl Professor]

I apologize for insulting cockroaches. They kinda get a bad rap

They are highly resistant to radiation. Could more easily make it to Mars than humans. Maybe they made that trip in reverse already. I know, off topic.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I would think that with as much as Elon dislikes the shorts that he would already have made sure his shares weren't lent out.

I would hope so, but he’s been a little busy lately. I think this is a detail that could have been missed.

 

[Intl Professor]

There are those just looking for even one good quarter. Q3 is about as good as it will get for the foreseeable future.

Honestly, you seem to have a short term view. Some of us speculate up to five years out and clearly based on previous record.

 

[Krugerrand]

How about "fellow human being"?

Sure, but currently they are being horrible human beings.