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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Further to your point. Exactly how many BMWs does he think are cruising around the outback. their 4WD systems are terrible compared to a landcruiser and no-one is buying a sedan to drive across gravel roads.

But Australia's a big country, so obviously Australians need vehicles that can cover long distances easily:

From 2015-2016
9208.0 - Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, Australia, 12 months ended 30 June 2016

The Strine Man said:
...
The total number of registered vehicles was made up of:

13,712,810 passenger vehicles (75.4%)
...

Vehicles registered in Victoria travelled the highest average kilometres (14,498), followed by Queensland (14,359 kilometres). Both estimates were above the national average. Vehicles registered in Tasmania travelled the lowest average kilometres (11,749).

...
Passenger vehicles travelled175,899 million kilometres in the 12 months ended 30 June 2016, 70.5% of the total kilometres travelled.
175,899 million kilometres/13,712,810 passenger cars ~= 12827km/passenger car
Note that that's _kilometers_.

What is the average miles driven per year in the UK?

A UK Website Quoting The British Man said:
In 2015, motorists drove an average of 7,900 miles each, according to the Government’s National Travel Survey. So if you drive an average amount, you’re probably close to this.

So, in the UK in 2015 the average number of miles driven per year was 7,900 = 12,640km.

Australians _fly_ long distances.

BMW (and Mercedes) have great cause for concern because even if battery costs make it hard for BEVs to take over the mainstream market, they're much more likely to take over the premium market.

But the comments also come due to being pressed on the shrinking diesel market, which is also a competitive threat.
 
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Having just gotten a mod message about my last post on a dumpster thread for market action on the weekend I am going to suggest that this NOT be the social club thread although one is probably necessary.

Frankly in my opinion, people interested in 'market action' are the least sophisticated investors so it's not even a thread I would by default have participated on except it was the most travelled. And so with that, I will ban myself from it.
 
Netflix is simply reaching maturity. I wouldn't expect much more than 15% annualized on a sustained basis from here. So Tesla at 50b$ vs Netflix at 150b$ currently but by 2030 I expect Tesla to be larger.

I think there is a fairly material chance that tsla grows to 4x price to sales by that June deadline. That's basically 2x p/s being 20 p/e on 10% net profit longterm and then a 2x multiple for that based on growth prospects exceeding 30% annum for a long stretch of time. Revenue on 2019 is 30b$ approx. This could be a 120b$ market cap stock in 2019. The main motive factors are gross margin on 35k$ and china tariff. I am optimistic the China dispute settles. I think competitors will be stuck chasing their tales, whatever plan they come up with becomes wrong half way through implementing it. There is a decent chance the 35k$ model literally becomes a 1m/year type product. It absorbs demand from adjacent directions because it is such a unique product that analogies to existing models like the BMW 3 may be flat wrong.

Or it might not.. but all bets are mathematical expectation.

I'm more aggressive with a TSLA overtake by 2025, maybe sooner. NFLX has been a growth phenom and served many quite well. No comparison though. TSLA disruption is more massive, deep and longer lasting along with its potential value. Just show us the margins.....and Ithe rest can/will be mastered, as they've proven obstacles to be thus far. And 1MM p.a. yes w/o doubt.

Source: Cars produced in the world - Worldometers

IMG_0229.PNG
 
The avoidance of in depth news on a large scale, as I describe below, absolutely affects TSLA market action!

An open letter to the New York Times, and other legacy news sources:

Once upon a time, you stood for something more: Integrity. Honesty. Authenticity. Disclosure. TRUTH.

You have lost a good portion of this in our modern age. I want it back. Others want it back.

A Challenge: There is a monumentally huge story to be told right now, and it's not being told by the larger news sources, like the NYT. Please. Tell it.

Why is it that an upstart AMERICAN car company, in business for barely 10 years, can come along in the 3rd quarter of 2018, and surpass the sales and US market share of a colossal behemoth like Mercedes-Benz, and it does not hit the front pages of your newspaper, or at least the front page of your business section, and include in depth investigative reporting as to how this could have happened, and what is going on?

Yes, really! This has occurred!

You, and the other legacy news organizations in the country have a massive story before you, and you are giving it the print space of a footnote.

A paradigm shift of epic proportions is occurring, and its story is begging to be told. Please. Tell it. Or, tell us why not!

Not only are American car manufacturers avoiding the shift from internal combustion engine drive trains to superior electric ones, but so are ALL the major car manufacturers from Germany, Japan, and Korea as well (China on the other hand, has taken the ball and is running with it). And no; we don't accept the token attempts by these makers at putting out space age looking concept cars, which show no signs of actually being produced for the market any time soon, as proof that they are stepping forward into the present reality. They do not want to make this transition. It is very clear. And there are very good reasons that this is the case. This is your story's material element! Tell it!

With massively locked up assets; in the form of equipment designed to produce certain kinds of drive trains, and capital invested in this equipment that will take many years to recoup, these entities simply cannot afford to drop their profitable products and make and offer others on a scale as large as would be necessary to succeed. Stranded assets!

And with an archaic dealership model that these manufacturers see no way to extricate themselves from, they are trapped!

If this is not the case, then I challenge you to speak to just what it is that is holding these companies back. After all; if Tesla has surpassed the 2018 3rd quarter sales of a company like Mercedes-Benz, then why wouldn't others want to jump on the reasons for this success as well? I'm telling you; there's a story here, and it's a big one!

I, along with many others, suspect that this story is not getting the attention it deserves because of YOU. You see, YOU are also trapped in the historic cage of reasoning that affects the automobile manufacturers. YOU are also threatened by this paradigm shift! Oh yes, you are! It's boldly plain to see.

ADVERTISING! You depend upon it for your very survival! And who are your advertisers? Well, right at the top of the list I see it's AUTOMOBILE COMPANIES! They pay you, and the rest of our legacy media billions of dollars a year for advertising their products! And they have been doing this for over a hundred years! Yes. And you need them. Can you see where I'm going with this? YOU are trapped as well. And you know it!

I know this challenge will go unanswered for now. But change has a way of happening; one way or another.This story is being told by the newer, smaller players in the media world. Those who are not entrenched with the older, monied interests. Your industry is being rebuilt, and joined by newer players who don't have the ball and chain of legacy around their necks, holding them back. And like Tesla in the 3rd quarter of 2018, in time they will one by one overtake the historic news makers, and reach larger and larger audiences with the full stories of our times that need to be told.

Change is upon us. What an exciting time to be alive!

Sounds like Autopilot v9 might be a huge breakthrough.

I didn’t follow a lot of this post by @jimmy_d , but it seems like Tesla has pulled off a technological coup with camera agnostic processing.

Neural Networks

Have contemplated both of these sensational pieces as a pair. A huge part of our TSLA thesis is the full self driving aspect. A high p/e ratio will demand it to maintain momentum.

I would vote the jimmy_d piece as post of the year. I understand what he is saying (mostly and through a simple lens) and it a beautiful thing. With some mad skills, it could even be translated for mainstream media. Who is gonna do it though? NewScientist does not have the understanding to start the process. Think Matrix...
 
Good morning from Europe on a nice sunny day :)

I was on E-via-the EV rally during the weekend (not exactly rally more promotion of Evs) in Ptuj/Slovenia/Europe.

E-via 2018 Die Elektrorallye: e-sme

There were approx. 2xTMX, 6xTMS, 1xTM3, 4xIoniq, 2xLeaf old, 3xLeaf new, 3xZoe, 2xeGolf, 2xi3, 3xSoul...
Interesting:
-My first model 3 live! :) I could compare it with S so I confirmed the difference. The owner is a dealer, bought it and transfer it to Europe for total 80.000€~92.000$. The dealer was interesting because he sell EV only. He said that Tesla used cars have very stable and high price. No one wants to sell them. They are keeping them already as antique and waiting for price increase?! He mentioned especially 100D.
-Next Italian guy driving black S P85D. His 3rd S with 200.000km. He collected 400.000km and 600.000km on previous ones. At home he has still his first signature Model S ordered in 2009!!! Wow! Now he is waiting for model 3. All his cars are full packed with all possibilities.
-When you align all Tesla models next to "competitors"...no they are not competitors. It's a different world. Basically almost no interests from ordinary people for other cars?! I was shocked. Can you imagine that? There was also new BMW7 from sponsor. 0 interest. I said to my family as real expert...now that the Tesla effect! Do you understand me now what I talking to you all the time?!
-Real eye catcher are falcon wings, Easter egg, all 3 designs outside and inside the cars....
-One important thing for which I was not aware. There were many EV enthusiasts following the industry. But there was also many people that do not know nothing about EVs, do not follow medias, don't know what FUD is...clean unwritten page. They were really surprised with what they saw! Such events are open eye/mind events and FUD cannot reach them!
 

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If you include commercial vehicles the US produces ~12M vehicles per year.

Pickup trucks, full size vans with one row or 3 plus rows are classified as commercial as are many full sized SUV depending on their GWVR(gross vehicle weight rating).

Yah, I've been focused on the speed to ubiquity of the M3, so passenger car sales has been my bench.
But you are correct, and that commercial vehicle demand will certainly make >1MM easier. :D
 
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Elon's plan proceeding in space apace:

Speaking in a Satellite Innovation 2018 keynote, long-time SpaceX investor and board member Steve Jurvetson made a quiet but significant comment about the company’s Starlink satellite constellation efforts, stating that the first two prototype spacecraft – currently in orbit – “are working wonderfully.

If SpaceX can perfect (Phased Arrays), they will be the only company in the world to have done so on-orbit, while other satellite operators like Iridium have managed to build and launch low-bandwidth phased arrays but have yet to attempt to do so with the bands optimal for broadband internet or at a scale that might work for constellations of hundreds or even thousands of satellites.

SpaceX board member says Starlink prototype satellites "are working wonderfully
 
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I have no idea where to share this, but thought it could be of interest. Mods feel free to move wherever you see fitting.

On oct.8th I received (via my bank) an unsolicited offer by Baker Mills LLC to sell some or all of my TSLA shares at a price of 199 USD (sic!). At the day of the offering (oct.6th) the SP was at 261.95 USD. Closing would be oct 28th. The are looking for max. 20k shares to buy...Who on earth would be as stupid to agree to that ? . oh wait...
Makes me want to buy some more at these levels.

Has anyone received the same offer ?


My take: FUD levels are at a max, therefore types like Baker Mills seem to think such a ridiculous offer will be accepted by weak / stupid and / or misinformed longs.
 
How does price action look like in Europe?

I hope we will have a strong week due to

- no Elon black swan tweets
- what I feel to be positive sentiment around production
- crushing orders forcing removal of any end of year guarantees.
I feel good w/ regards to Tesla, but more unsure with regards to the macro. More tech selloff? Or did we see a bottom last week? Might depend on netflix, ebay, paypal earnings to some degree. Any good news around tariffs will help.
 
I have no idea where to share this, but thought it could be of interest. Mods feel free to move wherever you see fitting.

On oct.8th I received (via my bank) an unsolicited offer by Baker Mills LLC to sell some or all of my TSLA shares at a price of 199 USD (sic!). At the day of the offering (oct.6th) the SP was at 261.95 USD. Closing would be oct 28th. The are looking for max. 20k shares to buy...Who on earth would be as stupid to agree to that ? . oh wait...
Makes me want to buy some more at these levels.

Has anyone received the same offer ?


My take: FUD levels are at a max, therefore types like Baker Mills seem to think such a ridiculous offer will be accepted by weak / stupid and / or misinformed longs.
Or is it a way to subtly try to make weak and uninformed longs wonder if "serious" market players (you know, the ones that are authorized to send such formal offers?) think that the value of TSLA is this low?
 
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I have no idea where to share this, but thought it could be of interest. Mods feel free to move wherever you see fitting.

On oct.8th I received (via my bank) an unsolicited offer by Baker Mills LLC to sell some or all of my TSLA shares at a price of 199 USD (sic!). At the day of the offering (oct.6th) the SP was at 261.95 USD. Closing would be oct 28th. The are looking for max. 20k shares to buy...Who on earth would be as stupid to agree to that ? . oh wait...
Makes me want to buy some more at these levels.

Has anyone received the same offer ?


My take: FUD levels are at a max, therefore types like Baker Mills seem to think such a ridiculous offer will be accepted by weak / stupid and / or misinformed longs.

Ask them to sell to you for 200$ :)
If they would tell you that you are making joke of them, then you could say U started first. :)
 
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I have no idea where to share this, but thought it could be of interest. Mods feel free to move wherever you see fitting.

On oct.8th I received (via my bank) an unsolicited offer by Baker Mills LLC to sell some or all of my TSLA shares at a price of 199 USD (sic!). At the day of the offering (oct.6th) the SP was at 261.95 USD. Closing would be oct 28th. The are looking for max. 20k shares to buy...Who on earth would be as stupid to agree to that ? . oh wait...
Makes me want to buy some more at these levels.

Has anyone received the same offer ?


My take: FUD levels are at a max, therefore types like Baker Mills seem to think such a ridiculous offer will be accepted by weak / stupid and / or misinformed longs.

NASDAQ and SEC is warning about similar schemes, we could call it the "mini-tender offer scheme": the scheme is apparently done both for heavily shorted and for highly volatile stocks.

Investors who agree to the terms effectively agree to selling their shares way below fair market prices.

See:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

You should probably ask your bank why they accepted money from them to relay you a message that carries a very high risk of severe financial harm, and whether they are aware of the SEC and NASDAQ warnings regarding this firm.

If my bank did this I'd be *sugar* upset with them: they are supposed to protect my money ...
 
I have no idea where to share this, but thought it could be of interest. Mods feel free to move wherever you see fitting.

On oct.8th I received (via my bank) an unsolicited offer by Baker Mills LLC to sell some or all of my TSLA shares at a price of 199 USD (sic!). At the day of the offering (oct.6th) the SP was at 261.95 USD. Closing would be oct 28th. The are looking for max. 20k shares to buy...Who on earth would be as stupid to agree to that ? . oh wait...
Makes me want to buy some more at these levels.

Has anyone received the same offer ?


My take: FUD levels are at a max, therefore types like Baker Mills seem to think such a ridiculous offer will be accepted by weak / stupid and / or misinformed longs.
It's an idiot hunt, (don't take that personally:)). There have been loads. Reminds me of the tale of the village idiot sitting on the parapet of the local railway bridge dangling a fishing rod, "How many have you caught today" says bypasser "your the fifth one" he says.;)
 
Elon's plan proceeding in space apace:

If SpaceX can perfect (Phased Arrays), they will be the only company in the world to have done so on-orbit, while other satellite operators like Iridium have managed to build and launch low-bandwidth phased arrays but have yet to attempt to do so with the bands optimal for broadband internet or at a scale that might work for constellations of hundreds or even thousands of satellites.

SpaceX board member says Starlink prototype satellites "are working wonderfully

"Phased Arrays" isn't really an appropriate substitution there. Phased arrays have been effectively perfected; even the radar in your Tesla uses a phased array antenna. Even a single array generating multiple beams isn't revolutionary. What's new is the concept of a super-massive LEO constellation maintaining numerous high frequency spot beams for high bandwidth relaying of end-user traffic to internet backbones.

Like most of his companies, Musk rarely** seeks out to find some new "breakthrough technology" to leap beyond competitors. Rather, he usually** seeks to combine the best of existing technologies in ways that competitors looked at and thought, "That's too hard" or "That's just not how you do it". Indeed, the key enabling technology for Starlink was created by... SpaceX ;) You can't even dream of launching such a huge constellation unless you can seriously lower launch costs.

** The single obvious counterexample that comes to mind is Neuralink. Of course, that project isn't exactly racing along ;)
 
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