bdy0627
Active Member
Elon seems to be in a much better place now. His tweets are good and he seems to be generally in a pleasant mood. His Mom helping handle the media negativity seems to have helped him. I'm liking the positive vibes.
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One way I attempt to assess how Tesla feels about their cash position is tracking progress with the supercharger network. Superchargers are important to Tesla's long-term strategy, but in the short term Tesla can ramp up or down spending on them based on how much money needs to be directed to more pressing priorities. First comes permits; then construction lags permits; then open superchargers lags construction. The main spending comes during construction and leading up to opening.
It's possible there might be some more supercharger updates "today", but I need to go to bed, so I'm going to call this good enough.
Notes: The graph is stacked. Supercharger closures (relatively uncommon) are subtracted from openings. Note the subtitle on the above graph: there's three ticks for each quarter, and they show different periods in the quarter (nonlinear). You'll note that usually the third tick - the last two weeks of the quarter - sees a big uptick in superchargers opening.
Note the huge upsurge in permits, construction and openings that happened during the optimistic days of Q3 2017 before "production hell" turned out to be more apt than expected. This was followed by a general downward trend. Q3 2018 started with the completion of a lot of work from Q2 finishing but relatively little new after that.
The interesting aspect to direct one's attention to is the number of permit applications so far in the first two weeks of Q4 2018. Its huge - 5,5 per week, 11 total. The only examined timeperiod that exceeded this was the last two weeks of Q3 2017, at 6,5 permits per week. From all appearances, Tesla is getting ready to have a significant expansion in their Supercharger buildout this quarter. This in turn argues for Tesla considering itself as having a strong cash position; if they felt they would be cutting it close on profit in Q4, one wouldn't expect such a large expansion in permit applications.
Could this just be noise? Coincidence? Certainly. And for that reason, I plan to - as always - keep an eye on how progress on the Supercharger network continues. But for now, signs are very promising for Q4.
It's possible there might be some more supercharger updates "today", but I need to go to bed, so I'm going to call this good enough.
Notes: The graph is stacked. Supercharger closures (relatively uncommon) are subtracted from openings. Note the subtitle on the above graph: there's three ticks for each quarter, and they show different periods in the quarter (nonlinear). You'll note that usually the third tick - the last two weeks of the quarter - sees a big uptick in superchargers opening.
Note the huge upsurge in permits, construction and openings that happened during the optimistic days of Q3 2017 before "production hell" turned out to be more apt than expected. This was followed by a general downward trend. Q3 2018 started with the completion of a lot of work from Q2 finishing but relatively little new after that.
The interesting aspect to direct one's attention to is the number of permit applications so far in the first two weeks of Q4 2018. Its huge - 5,5 per week, 11 total. The only examined timeperiod that exceeded this was the last two weeks of Q3 2017, at 6,5 permits per week. From all appearances, Tesla is getting ready to have a significant expansion in their Supercharger buildout this quarter. This in turn argues for Tesla considering itself as having a strong cash position; if they felt they would be cutting it close on profit in Q4, one wouldn't expect such a large expansion in permit applications.
Could this just be noise? Coincidence? Certainly. And for that reason, I plan to - as always - keep an eye on how progress on the Supercharger network continues. But for now, signs are very promising for Q4.
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I suppose you've somehow figured out a way not to pay taxes on those capital gains? If not, your stock profit has to be reduced by at least $8K. Quite a bit more if you pay CA state taxes. Still a win of course....
Sounds like Autopilot v9 might be a huge breakthrough.
I didn’t follow a lot of this post by @jimmy_d , but it seems like Tesla has pulled off a technological coup with camera agnostic processing.
Neural Networks
I didn’t follow a lot of this post by @jimmy_d , but it seems like Tesla has pulled off a technological coup with camera agnostic processing.
Neural Networks
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Let's hope it's light years better than your climate "analysis"
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Tweet this tagging that NYT reporter (and others). Post the tweet here for us to retweet.
Another on the ignore list...you deny Climate change...you are in same class as flat earther's...I ignore you
SunCatcher
Member
I wish I could. But I'm Twilliterate, and plan to stay that way. Anyone capable of doing so; please be my guest. And thank you for your service!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Open an account (with the same name even !). Make an image of this open letter. Attach the letter and tweet. Much more effective than if I tweet your letter. DM if you need help.
NikeWings
Active Member
Why settle for less, when you can have so much more than 'just range'?
Premarket is down. Everyone please do what you can to knock this down. Call your senators. Tweet Dana hull. In two days if Netflix delivers a decent result I will buy enough June 19 400 options to make peace with the empire for centuries.
My purchase will be legend and you will know my name when I lay my leverage upon thee!
My purchase will be legend and you will know my name when I lay my leverage upon thee!
Krugerrand
Meow
Why settle for less, when you can have so much more than 'just range'?
No LR Model 3 on that list.
NikeWings
Active Member
Curious about your obsession drivers...... 15 years is a long time to be unseated.
Netflix is simply reaching maturity. I wouldn't expect much more than 15% annualized on a sustained basis from here. So Tesla at 50b$ vs Netflix at 150b$ currently but by 2030 I expect Tesla to be larger.
I think there is a fairly material chance that tsla grows to 4x price to sales by that June deadline. That's basically 2x p/s being 20 p/e on 10% net profit longterm and then a 2x multiple for that based on growth prospects exceeding 30% annum for a long stretch of time. Revenue on 2019 is 30b$ approx. This could be a 120b$ market cap stock in 2019. The main motive factors are gross margin on 35k$ and china tariff. I am optimistic the China dispute settles. I think competitors will be stuck chasing their tales, whatever plan they come up with becomes wrong half way through implementing it. There is a decent chance the 35k$ model literally becomes a 1m/year type product. It absorbs demand from adjacent directions because it is such a unique product that analogies to existing models like the BMW 3 may be flat wrong.
Or it might not.. but all bets are mathematical expectation.
Thanks for cross-posting this. This seems more than just some gradual NN improvement. This seems like an order of magnitude or more improvement, and also seems to blow anything else on the market out of the water.
This is a really big achievement Tesla has unlocked. Way to go Karpathy and team!
Agree with these points, and they make any math unnecessary
Also like the fact this is your post number 42.
printf("%s: %d(2:4)\r\n", BRAGSTRING, dCurrAccount / dPriorAccount);
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