TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ThereAre4Cars]

You are essentially saying the entire field of statistics can be ignored.

That's true at least 90% of the time.

Yeah, the "Valles Marineris Ribeye Steak" is going to be an export hit - because cattle can in fact be raised on Mars and transported back on Earth cheaper than on Earth, due to the punitive greenhouse tariffs on cattle on Earth, and the greenhouse gases incentives on Mars, where they need all the extra methane for their rocket fuel they can get, and any excessive production of methane goes straight into the Martian atmosphere, to generate as much greenhouse warming as possible.

Bio-engineered Martian cattle are grown with no brains whatsoever (they have a NeuraLink interface and are entirely computer controlled by Tesla AI supercomputers) - while the resulting meat is 100% genetically identical with original beef. This patented cattle raising technique gained even PETA approval.

The recent 10-year exclusive beef supply contract McDonalds signed with Musk Industries doubled the size of the Martian beef market.

The wonderfully intertwined supply chains of interplanetary economics!


(Sorry about this, I'll show myself out.)

Reporter #1: So what are those cattle thinking about mostly? Does the Neuralink give us access?
Expert #1: Yes. Here for instance is the output from that one on the left: "110000000000000!"

 

[Drumheller]

Some people come to this thread hoping to read news regarding TSLA and Tesla. Every post not about the stock, or at least the company, is waste of time for those people. It devalues this thread and increases the rate at which valuable posts fall back to older pages in this thread. Frankly, it's rude, especially when there are plenty of other places for these off-topic posts.

 

[RobStark]

The recent 10-year exclusive beef supply contract McDonalds signed with Musk Industries doubled the size of the Martian beef market.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Some of his comments make total sense:

He said, “I think the discussion about electro-mobility is a little bit irrational… the world – Russia, Australia, a large portion of the world – they will have combustion engines for a very long time.”
​

I mean the Russian (1.6 million car sales) and Australian (1.2 million) markets, with a combined 2.8 million new passenger vehicle sales in 2017, totally define the future of the automobile, unlike the U.S. market (17 million), European market (15 million) and Chinese market (24 million), where over 80% of the population lives in urban environments.

Also, the 200 kWh packs with over 1,000 km of range will not be nearly enough for those 0.01% of Australians who chose to leave the coastal cities and decide to cross their continent every year, driving through the dry interior which is a harsh, unforgiving environment hostile to most modern humans:

Wait a minute ...

Further to your point. Exactly how many BMWs does he think are cruising around the outback. their 4WD systems are terrible compared to a landcruiser and no-one is buying a sedan to drive across gravel roads.

 

[ZeApelido]

Some people come to this thread hoping to read news regarding TSLA and Tesla. Every post not about the stock, or at least the company, is waste of time for those people. It devalues this thread and increases the rate at which valuable posts fall back to older pages in this thread. Frankly, it's rude, especially when there are plenty of other places for these off-topic posts.

 

[capster]

So the SEC announces their NEW strategic plan today.........anyone understand what Jimbo is saying?


View attachment 343344

Though I’m not a native speaker of bureaucratese, I would translate this memorandumb as follows:

“We are upping how much we will charge the big financial players for certain services rendered:

Recall that not only has the SEC studiously:

1) ignored the speculators and shorts who are making the market for TSLA unfair and disorderly,

but it has also

2) pitched in directly to make the market inefficient for Tesla. It has done the latter by using the threat of excessive punishment for a minor, dubious charge to railroad Mr. Musk.

Since people have cottoned to the fact that we provide are providing these services at, er, odds to our actual legally mandated role, we expect the big financial players to throw us a couple of bones so we can prosecute someone for something that will make it look like we are doing our jobs.

Further, we expect these players to say ‘Ah, you caught us dead to rights, Guv’ and we expect the major media mouthpieces to lionize us for protecting, uh, investors (I think they used to be called) from amongst the unwashed public.”

 

[CorneliusXX]

Bio-engineered Martian cattle are grown with no brains whatsoever

I take it you haven't been to a farm in a while.

 

[ggies07]

Holy *sugar* guys. I just saw this commercial while watching football. I mean, I understand oil is in most things, but that doesn't mean we should stay on it because "America". If people haven't heard of Tesla, or EVs, or solar power, this really manipulates them.

Are there/Can there be alternatives to using oil? Sure thing - Here are some all sustainable shoes that defeats their marketing campaign.

The World’s Most Comfortable Shoes

 

[capster]

So the SEC announces their NEW strategic plan today.........anyone understand what Jimbo is saying?


View attachment 343344

I’ll venture another translation:

“Head’s up TSLA shorts and co-conspiritors: We’re pissed that you bamboozled us into embarassing ourselves by our going after Musk. Now, we’re gunning for you.”

Dunno which of my translations is correct. My bureaucratese is rusty and it was never at a national level to begin with.

I’d dearly love to believe that this translation is the correct one.

 

[KarenRei]

Some people come to this thread hoping to read news regarding TSLA and Tesla. Every post not about the stock, or at least the company, is waste of time for those people. It devalues this thread and increases the rate at which valuable posts fall back to older pages in this thread. Frankly, it's rude, especially when there are plenty of other places for these off-topic posts.

Meh, it's a weekend - what do you expect? How much market action do you expect to see on a weekend?

(That said, I do have a minor analysis piece coming up in a couple hours)

 

[SunCatcher]

The avoidance of in depth news on a large scale, as I describe below, absolutely affects TSLA market action!

An open letter to the New York Times, and other legacy news sources:

Once upon a time, you stood for something more: Integrity. Honesty. Authenticity. Disclosure. TRUTH.

You have lost a good portion of this in our modern age. I want it back. Others want it back.

A Challenge: There is a monumentally huge story to be told right now, and it's not being told by the larger news sources, like the NYT. Please. Tell it.

Why is it that an upstart AMERICAN car company, in business for barely 10 years, can come along in the 3rd quarter of 2018, and surpass the sales and US market share of a colossal behemoth like Mercedes-Benz, and it does not hit the front pages of your newspaper, or at least the front page of your business section, and include in depth investigative reporting as to how this could have happened, and what is going on?

Yes, really! This has occurred!

You, and the other legacy news organizations in the country have a massive story before you, and you are giving it the print space of a footnote.

A paradigm shift of epic proportions is occurring, and its story is begging to be told. Please. Tell it. Or, tell us why not!

Not only are American car manufacturers avoiding the shift from internal combustion engine drive trains to superior electric ones, but so are ALL the major car manufacturers from Germany, Japan, and Korea as well (China on the other hand, has taken the ball and is running with it). And no; we don't accept the token attempts by these makers at putting out space age looking concept cars, which show no signs of actually being produced for the market any time soon, as proof that they are stepping forward into the present reality. They do not want to make this transition. It is very clear. And there are very good reasons that this is the case. This is your story's material element! Tell it!

With massively locked up assets; in the form of equipment designed to produce certain kinds of drive trains, and capital invested in this equipment that will take many years to recoup, these entities simply cannot afford to drop their profitable products and make and offer others on a scale as large as would be necessary to succeed. Stranded assets!

And with an archaic dealership model that these manufacturers see no way to extricate themselves from, they are trapped!

If this is not the case, then I challenge you to speak to just what it is that is holding these companies back. After all; if Tesla has surpassed the 2018 3rd quarter sales of a company like Mercedes-Benz, then why wouldn't others want to jump on the reasons for this success as well? I'm telling you; there's a story here, and it's a big one!

I, along with many others, suspect that this story is not getting the attention it deserves because of YOU. You see, YOU are also trapped in the historic cage of reasoning that affects the automobile manufacturers. YOU are also threatened by this paradigm shift! Oh yes, you are! It's boldly plain to see.

ADVERTISING! You depend upon it for your very survival! And who are your advertisers? Well, right at the top of the list I see it's AUTOMOBILE COMPANIES! They pay you, and the rest of our legacy media billions of dollars a year for advertising their products! And they have been doing this for over a hundred years! Yes. And you need them. Can you see where I'm going with this? YOU are trapped as well. And you know it!

I know this challenge will go unanswered for now. But change has a way of happening; one way or another.This story is being told by the newer, smaller players in the media world. Those who are not entrenched with the older, monied interests. Your industry is being rebuilt, and joined by newer players who don't have the ball and chain of legacy around their necks, holding them back. And like Tesla in the 3rd quarter of 2018, in time they will one by one overtake the historic news makers, and reach larger and larger audiences with the full stories of our times that need to be told.

Change is upon us. What an exciting time to be alive!

 

[traxila]

I’ll venture another translation:

“Head’s up TSLA shorts and co-conspiritors: We’re pissed that you bamboozled us into embarassing ourselves by our going after Musk. Now, we’re gunning for you.”

Dunno which of my translations is correct. My bureaucratese is rusty and it was never at a national level to begin with.

I’d dearly love to believe that this translation is the correct one.

Hate to say this, but keep dreaming.

Bought and paid for is the SEC...

 

[NikeWings]

Speaking of carbon... ..sooooooo last week, Ireland extends by 3 years its BIK exemption for EVs under EUR50,000.......they obviously took one look at the M3, did a jig and said "we gotta have a bunch of thoze ! Tesla company cars take a hit in Budget as electric benefit-in-kind perk capped - Independent.ie


Adding:
Budget 2019 changes to Benefits-in-kind - The 0% benefit-in-kind rate for electric vehicles introduced in Budget 2018 is being extended for a period of 3 years, with a cap of €50,000 on the Original Market Value of the vehicle. Taxation of benefits (other than benefits-in-kind), is made literally on the value of the benefit.

 

[EVNow]

Tell me about it (holding Feb '19 380 calls.) Tesla's bounce Friday was not strong relative to other recently beaten down leaders. Seems like it is having trouble recovering as easily as it has after other recent drops. Options reflecting it being stuck in the mud down here. Hopefully it can show more relative strength next week as we close in on Q3 earnings.

Tesla IV is at a yearly high - though it came down on Friday. So is HV.

The earning call around the month end should push the IV higher, may be in a week or two. Unfortunately I bought most of the J19 calls in October after the IV went really high.

Historical Volatility (30) is at a 52 wk high. Depending how the price moves in the next few days, it will go higher or could go lower since last 20 days have higher HV than last 60 days.

​

 

[capster]

That would be a mixed blessing for shareholders: if it's thrown out without prejudice the SEC could re-file the suit anytime. If it's thrown out with prejudice the SEC would appeal it almost certainly - as it would probably set a precedent that severely curtails their legal toolkit. That would draw out the uncertainty for a long time.

It's also pretty hard for the judge to do anything in this case where the suit is so super young that there are almost no established facts she could rely on to make a substantial ruling in either direction.

The most likely outcome is that she ratifies the settlement tomorrow-ish.

The SEC can be seen as a cop arresting the victim rather than the perpetrators of a mugging on a particularly dark and dirty street.

Won’t the judge besmirch the reputation of the judiciary if she just rubberstamps the railroading of Elon Musk by the SEC?

The SEC is offering the victim of a mugging by powerful entrenched interests the choice of having their life’s work destroyed in via immediate severe punishment or in a legal death of a thousand cuts in the courtroom over the years to come.

Could she offer the SEC a similar choice? Come back with the lightest possible slap on the wrist for Musk or the SEC will face a reputational death by a thousand via interminable requests for justification of the settlement that will together shed a great deal of public light on them and others.

She could conclude that the SEC’s part of the first and any following responses to her request(s) for justification was/were sufficiently unclear as to be non-responsive.

She could make more requests for justification with specific questions for the SEC, such as:

1) Does the SEC have standing, since it appears to be acting against its mandate? Isn’t it supposed to protect investors (aka shareholders) and provide stability? Shouldn’t its focus be on the muggers, that is on the speculators, shortsellers and their co-conspiritors who are introducing unfairness and instability in to the market?

2) The shareholders *just* voted to keep Elon Musk as the leader of Tesla. Why is the SEC seeking to undo that when the shareholders have so clearly demonstrated they want? Isn’t what the SEC seeking actually in the best interest of “anti-investors”? Why would removing Musk as Chairman constitute any kind of “remedy” for shareholders?

3) Why is the SEC justified in wanting tighter control of Musk and Tesla through recourse to contempt rulings when the SEC appears in (2) above to be acting against the shareholders and market with the punishment it seeks to meet out?

4) Why oh why on all the other parts of the settlement too? Why so much money? Should a person get a $200,000 traffic ticket rather than a $200 ticket simply because they have an expensive car?

…) and so on and on and on and on…

I’m not a lawyer, so perhaps nothing like this is possible. If it is possible, it might yield a settlement that is effectively a dismissal. It would also shed some light on the peculiar behavior of the SEC and perhaps also on the shorts, etc.

It would be sad if the judge cannot find a way for the judiciary to avoid being party to a great injustice that would make history.

[edits for clarity]

 

[Intl Professor]

Mod: Any more off topic excrement will be deleted.

 

[Thumper]

Is it possible for a group of investors (us) to file a class action amicus brief outlining to the judge our view of how the SEC has victimized not protected us? Obviously, I'm not a lawyer!

 

[AZRI11]

The high number of deaths was caused by unpreparedness, mainly in retirement homes. As we get more of these summers, the personnel in the retirement homes are more alert and proactive: making sure that seniors drink enough, installing airco etc. The risk is now mainly with senior citizens that still live on their own.

I was in Portugal during that heat wave. Watched helicopters scoop water from the sea to help put out wild fires. Yesterday they had their worst storm since 1842. 70 mph tropical storm with gusts up to 109 mph. My uncle flew into Lisbon on Friday, relatives blaming him for bringing hurricane with him. This is going to get a lot worse TSLA is not that important, but tesla is of the upmost importance right now.

 

[oneday]

Is it possible for a group of investors (us) to file a class action amicus brief outlining to the judge our view of how the SEC has victimized not protected us? Obviously, I'm not a lawyer!

IANAL I don't think that this proceeding could work like this. I think that the Judge can either sign the order or dismiss the order. The order is already drafted, I'll try to attach it. Now, you(someone representing you/ or a group) could probably write an amicus brief recommending the Judge dismiss with prejudice.

Now, I do think we as shareholders have grounds to a class action suit against the SEC for forcing Musk out as chairman, specifically because the shareholders did just overwhelmingly vote to keep Musk as chairman and not to add more independent board members. Then again, as I said I am not a lawyer and really am just speculating here.

Edit: As @Fact Checking has pointed out though. Would it be in the best interest of shareholders to have the case dismissed with prejudice? The SEC would appeal and it could wind up in the courts for years. I also doubt the judge could find a basis for dismissing with prejudice, because Musk and his legal team haven’t made any assertions of facts. The only thing the Judge could go off is the SEC’s assertion of facts.

 

[Opus BC fan]

So a random thought. If the SEC penalty is going to be distributed among "harmed" TSLA shareholders. Can the longs and Tesla supporters organize to claim some of those funds? They can then use the proceeds to buy more TSLA stock. I would hate to see those funds distributed to shorts claiming damages. I lack the technical knowledge to organize something like this, but it sure would be fun to see a TMC group claim some of those funds in order to put as much back into Tesla as possible.