-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
At the risk of sounding like a broken record... I don't think the tax incentive is all that meaningful to EV sales. And I'm not sure that many people here believe it either: Tesla purchases are facing a reduced incentive next year, that expires next year as well. And yet (other than some bears) people seem to think that M3 sales will continue to increase.
If the government really wanted an incentive it wouldn't be reserved for the wealthier part of the population.
Just sayin'
MikeQ
Member
The incentive is only reduced for Tesla though (and later GM). It's based on the number of cars a manufacturer sells. The incentive needs to be changed to end for everyone at the same time. Otherwise, all the new players to the EV market will have a $7500 advantage over Tesla.
shlokavica22
Member
Unless you want to be only positive about TSLA (essentially creating an echo chamber of fanboys), this comment doesn't make sense.
He has a valid point and presents it in a respectful manner (so far). Fair critique is essential for faster progress.
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
By measuring NASDAQ futures fluctuations and comparing them to TSLA fluctuations on days with no clear price direction.
Beta is usually measured over longer time periods. A better metric is 'Average True Range (ATR)':
which is around $10-$20 for TSLA (which higher values during extreme price action), i.e. ~4%-8% of the stock price, while NASDAQ:
NASDAQ is usually much more stable in the 0.5-1.5% ATR range.
So as a rule of thumb the NASDAQ -> TSLA volatility multiplier for intraday price action is around 3x.
Last edited:
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Here’s the link to the Electrek article, which independently reaches the same, obvious conclusion that I did:
Elon Musk is buying $20 million more of Tesla shares – seemingly to compensate for SEC settlement fine
Elon Musk is buying $20 million more of Tesla shares – seemingly to compensate for SEC settlement fine
I would argue that incentive is not so much for the people, whether they are wealthy or not, but to help the new technology develop. So, whomever helps, gets the incentive.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
...but that advantage only accrues to the wealthier part of the population. I could afford to buy a Bolt because the selling price is a quite a bit less than any Tesla. Yeah, eventually there will be a $35,000 M3, but not today.
I'm not saying the wealthy don't benefit from the incentive (a friend of mine's ears perked up when I told him about it), but it seems generally accepted by other than bears that its lack won't meaningfully impact their ability to move EVs. Probably because the value proposition is so much better. I could buy a Bolt, but I have no interest in them.
From a fairness perspective, I don't see how a 200,000 limit isn't fair. In fact, it seems very equitable. Just not a real incentive for EV adoption -- but that is a matter of differing goals.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
But that is not what the incentive does. This has already been discussed here, but it is significantly less than half the households who could get the full incentive. There was a proposal to make the incentive a rebate at point of sale. That would be an incentive.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
So AFAICS the article came out at around 8:43am, shortly after market open, but 5 minutes after the NASDAQ was already in a -1% drop and TSLA was already down along standard correlation.
Speculation: according to the timestamps Linette Lopez wrote the article at around 1:03am but delayed publication. Once she saw that NASDAQ was dropping and TSLA was dropping along it, she released it to either magnify the drop, or to create an impression that this negative news is the 'reason' for the drop.
So far today's TSLA price action is within historic volatility ranges on a NASDAQ down-day and is closely following NASDAQ price action.
Do you have different timestamps perhaps?
yes, not unreasonable to think so. i see valid points on both sides...but the most important that we aren’t saying, is to just get it over with.
the sec is a joke. i’m tired of hearing about it. i hope the class action BS goes away soon, but doubtful that will be case. the last few months have been a damn nightmare for me.
Whoa! Let’s calm down in the natural disaster speculation for Shanghai....
The only relevant risk of natural disaster In the Shanghai area can be attributed to flooding of the (Huangpu) river. Shanghai is essentially built on the flood plains of this river, however whether the location of the factory is part of that flood plain geography is unclear to me.
There has to my knowledge (and a quick google) never been a tsunami in or near Shanghai! Nor an earthquake.
Of course flooding through storms can occur, but Shanghai is also not known for a Typhoon target area.....
I’m sure if this was a true risk, appropriate measures would be put in place architecturally.
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
In verifying the price of the Bolt I ran into this:
"With similar price tags and battery range, the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3 will be battling for many of the same consumers. However, battery range and price are just two factors here."
Okay, fair enough.
"For now, GM is in the better position, largely because it’s beating Tesla to market by a year."
Okay, let's look at the publish date. September 2016. Fair enough.
Its amusing to look back with hindsight and see how well GM's supposed advantage worked out for them, but the article's main fault appears to be naiveté. I only wish that was the problem I see in many current articles...
Here's How Much GM's New Chevy Bolt EV Will Cost
"With similar price tags and battery range, the Chevy Bolt and Tesla Model 3 will be battling for many of the same consumers. However, battery range and price are just two factors here."
Okay, fair enough.
"For now, GM is in the better position, largely because it’s beating Tesla to market by a year."
Okay, let's look at the publish date. September 2016. Fair enough.
Its amusing to look back with hindsight and see how well GM's supposed advantage worked out for them, but the article's main fault appears to be naiveté. I only wish that was the problem I see in many current articles...
Here's How Much GM's New Chevy Bolt EV Will Cost
The tax incentive is hugely important for _most_ EV sales. It has allowed manufacturers to offer the cheap leases that make up over half of all "sales".
But in Tesla's case it may have allowed them to sell some higher-priced or higher-optioned vehicles that gives them time to improve margin ready for the phase-out.
It's clear that Musk wants a DEAL on his 20$m share purchase. That said, I'm more concerned with this "announcement" and any reasoning behind it. Why announce it at all? Why do it now? I guess get it done and behind them, but is 20M going to make a difference in Q3/Q4 numbers and reported cash on hand (and we still don't have an earnings reporting date, so it's pretty darn certain coming in Nov.).
I'm increasing my probability of a less than stellar cash on hand number and increasing my odds of a capital or debt raise.
I'm increasing my probability of a less than stellar cash on hand number and increasing my odds of a capital or debt raise.
Which necessarily raises the question:
If you fit an electrical motor to the drive shaft of a cargo ship and fill its cargo hold completely with charged Model 3 battery packs, how far could it sail before having to switch to its diesel propulsion ?
Wow, good luck with that. A single high priced stock, like amazon would overwhelm something like a Nasdaq true range - since the index is going to be a measurement of a basket of stocks and not just one, thus diversified (as much as NSDQ can be at this point0. Might as well just look at nominal price variability, which IMHO would be equally skewed.
I agree, it's something, but as an example in the past 4-5 months, the futures fluctuations for the index have not correlated in a traditional way to the actual daily price ranges and ending pricing. same is true for Tesla. We get low volume Pre Market interest, buying, pricing increases and then WHAM, big sellers taking up all the initial days volume and the price drops. As I've said many many times before, we've seen this movie and the ending has been consistently the same - with the quite random alternate ending where we manage to eek out a close close to the highs of any given day.
I'm still long only about 20% of the position and would be a buyer over 285$ and certainly under $250 again, but if we get down into the $262 range Id reduce the speed of my entries.
Earnings are coming, but Winter is coming too!
Forgot to mention though, that site macroaxis is pretty SWEET!.. It's my new favorite site for the day. Are you confident in the numbers represented?
Last edited:
RoadsterPlease
Member
maybe $tsla went up too fast the past days and we are seeing a small correction today, otherwise I don't know what's going on right now below 270
What matters is how good a job you do covering it with retractable solar panels. If you FILL the cargo hold with battery packs, then it's not much of a cargo ship IMHO.
Why do you say "DEAL" ? The purchase will be at market pricing
.
He is an insider, so purchases need to either be when there is no privileged information, or due to to pre-scheduled order that also was not based on privileged info.
The sooner he buys the new shares, the less the impact on Tesla's bottom line.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Poll
