TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[M3Rider]

The incentive is only reduced for Tesla though (and later GM). It's based on the number of cars a manufacturer sells. The incentive needs to be changed to end for everyone at the same time. Otherwise, all the new players to the EV market will have a $7500 advantage over Tesla.

Yes, but they also have inefficiencies of design and production lines, which need tuned to reduce costs, so they have higher costs initially.
If the government wants to be fair to all manufacturers, they all need time to perfect their technology and that time is however long it takes them to make 200k cars.

If the government wants to further create an incentive for EV over ICE choice to reduce pollution, then it can be a separate rebate.

But I think it's unfair to say other manufacturers don't deserve extra help/time to perfect their technology, which Tesla had.

Probably would make sense to only support U.S. brands and let Germany, Japan support theirs. In my opinion.

 

[KarenRei]

Whoa! Let’s calm down in the natural disaster speculation for Shanghai....

The only relevant risk of natural disaster In the Shanghai area can be attributed to flooding of the (Huangpu) river. Shanghai is essentially built on the flood plains of this river, however whether the location of the factory is part of that flood plain geography is unclear to me.

There has to my knowledge (and a quick google) never been a tsunami in or near Shanghai! Nor an earthquake.

Of course flooding through storms can occur, but Shanghai is also not known for a Typhoon target area.....

I’m sure if this was a true risk, appropriate measures would be put in place architecturally.

Come on, you have to be kidding. See these tracks?

These are just the typhoons that hit Shanghai *this year*.

Not an earthquake/tsunami hazard zone?

China's earthquake risk is one for the record books, modelers

It's a lower risk than Beijing, but it's still on the Ring of Fire. The main faults run offshore between Taiwan and Japan... aka, underwater.

Overall?

Well this is just great: Shanghai ranks world’s 8th riskiest city for natural disasters

And furthermore: Giga 3 is to be built in in Lingang New City. This is land reclaimed from the sea.

It's not unreasonable to be bringing these factors up in an investment discussion. I'm sure Tesla is well aware of them, but we need to be aware of them as well.

 

[ggr]

It's clear that Musk wants a DEAL on his 20$m share purchase. That said, I'm more concerned with this "announcement" and any reasoning behind it. Why announce it at all? Why do it now? I guess get it done and behind them, but is 20M going to make a difference in Q3/Q4 numbers and reported cash on hand (and we still don't have an earnings reporting date, so it's pretty darn certain coming in Nov.).

I'm increasing my probability of a less than stellar cash on hand number and increasing my odds of a capital or debt raise.

He absolutely has to announce it if it is going to happen. No choice in that part of the matter. It isn't material to either Elon or Tesla in terms of money, it's a statement, and the time to make a statement is now.

 

[Drax7]

From a 5 dollar rally on a 20 million purchase to a 9 drop cause a vice
President is leaving.

Maybe this guy had become irrelevant and there was no reason For
Him to stay. Elon had to do his job and sleep over.

‘‘It is part of the short playbook, people
Are leaving cause things are bad. And the fakkers
Want to report every departure to Help the
Shorts.

 

[sub]

Not going to happen. Why would you want to get a car with 2k miles on odometer, worn tires, covered w/ bug corpses etc.?
Maybe in the 50 mile radius from the factory.

No delivery fee?

 

[Remus]

It's clear that Musk wants a DEAL on his 20$m share purchase. That said, I'm more concerned with this "announcement" and any reasoning behind it. Why announce it at all? Why do it now? I guess get it done and behind them, but is 20M going to make a difference in Q3/Q4 numbers and reported cash on hand (and we still don't have an earnings reporting date, so it's pretty darn certain coming in Nov.).

I'm increasing my probability of a less than stellar cash on hand number and increasing my odds of a capital or debt raise.

Aren't they required to file a 8k for this?

 

[KarenRei]

What matters is how good a job you do covering it with retractable solar panels. If you FILL the cargo hold with battery packs, then it's not much of a cargo ship IMHO.

I think their point is that the battery packs would themselves be the cargo

It's an interesting concept. I'd worked out before that a practical electrified cargo ship, with current tech, would have something like a 2000km range, and require the use of oceanic "gigachargers" (deep sea wind, floating solar), to maintain a reasonable cargo fraction and purchase price. But if the packs themselves are the cargo....

 

[RoadsterPlease]

finally some upward movement, I was starting to get frustrated again...
Think I am too involved with this stock lol

 

[KarenRei]

From a 5 dollar rally on a 20 million purchase to a 9 drop cause a vice
President is leaving.

Maybe this guy had become irrelevant and there was no reason For
Him to stay. Elon had to do his job and sleep over.

‘‘It is part of the short playbook, people
Are leaving cause things are bad. And the fakkers
Want to report every departure to Help the
Shorts.

People got their excuse for profit taking and making new short positions after a long time with stock prices depressed. They're doing so. I mentioned that I expected this at some point before Q3 earlier this morning. I didn't expect it would happen today, but hey, why not...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Wow, good luck with that. A single high priced stock, like amazon would overwhelm something like a Nasdaq true range - since the index is going to be a measurement of a basket of stocks and not just one, thus diversified (as much as NSDQ can be at this point0. Might as well just look at nominal price variability, which IMHO would be equally skewed.

I agree, it's something, but as an example in the past 4-5 months, the futures fluctuations for the index have not correlated in a traditional way to the actual daily price ranges and ending pricing. same is true for Tesla. We get low volume Pre Market interest, buying, pricing increases and then WHAM, big sellers taking up all the initial days volume and the price drops. As I've said many many times before, we've seen this movie and the ending has been consistently the same - with the quite random alternate ending where we manage to eek out a close close to the highs of any given day.

I'm still long only about 20% of the position and would be a buyer over 285$ and certainly under $250 again, but if we get down into the $262 range Id reduce the speed of my entries.

Earnings are coming, but Winter is coming too!

Forgot to mention though, that site macroaxis is pretty SWEET!.. It's my new favorite site for the day. Are you confident in the numbers represented?

Could you explain what you mean by "long only about 20% of the position"? Does that mean you have short term calls as well, or that you have puts? Or something else entirely? :-D

 

[tivoboy]

Why do you say "DEAL" ? The purchase will be at market pricing .

.

It is, but it is usually defined as "on close 10/17/18", or "mkt average for day x/y/z". I have the feeling it's going to be an on close set price, not a day average - or it could be a possibly HIGH day average. We just don't know

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Yes, but they also have inefficiencies of design and production lines, which need tuned to reduce costs, so they have higher costs initially.
If the government wants to be fair to all manufacturers, they all need time to perfect their technology and that time is however long it takes them to make 200k cars.

If the government wants to further create an incentive for EV over ICE choice to reduce pollution, then it can be a separate rebate.

But I think it's unfair to say other manufacturers don't deserve extra help/time to perfect their technology, which Tesla had.

Probably would make sense to only support U.S. brands and let Germany, Japan support theirs. In my opinion.

The other players have had exactly the same amount of time(actually, about 100 years more) to perfect those processes as Tesla has had. At this point, give them a few more years to finally try to catch up or die. I don’t think the US government should be propping up businesses that fail to adapt.

Giving a set number of years with such subsidies makes sense to push a technology improvement to reduce climate change and pollution. Continuing to give the subsidy until they reach a set number of cars, so that players who have dragged their feet all these years can survive the change doesn’t.

Though, I will say, it may make sense to allow brand new entries to the car business some number of buffer years after their inception to get off the ground.

 

[KarenRei]

On the plus side, re: Tesla building in low-lying reclaimed land at risk for flooding and typhoons: now they'll have extra incentive to halt global warming and sea level rise in its tracks!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

It's clear that Musk wants a DEAL on his 20$m share purchase. That said, I'm more concerned with this "announcement" and any reasoning behind it. Why announce it at all? Why do it now? I guess get it done and behind them, but is 20M going to make a difference in Q3/Q4 numbers and reported cash on hand (and we still don't have an earnings reporting date, so it's pretty darn certain coming in Nov.).

I'm increasing my probability of a less than stellar cash on hand number and increasing my odds of a capital or debt raise.

Tesla $0:
Elon Musk was fined $20M.
Tesla was fined $20M.
Tesla $(20M)
Elon Musk is buying $20M of shares from Tesla.
Tesla: $(20M) + $20M = $(0M)

 

[tivoboy]

Come on, you have to be kidding. See these tracks?

These are just the typhoons that hit Shanghai *this year*.

Not an earthquake/tsunami hazard zone?

China's earthquake risk is one for the record books, modelers

It's a lower risk than Beijing, but it's still on the Ring of Fire. The main faults run offshore between Taiwan and Japan... aka, underwater.

Overall?

Well this is just great: Shanghai ranks world’s 8th riskiest city for natural disasters

And furthermore: Giga 3 is to be built in in Lingang New City. This is land reclaimed from the sea.

It's not unreasonable to be bringing these factors up in an investment discussion. I'm sure Tesla is well aware of them, but we need to be aware of them as well.

I realized LONG ago that one doesn't try to argue climate change or environmental science with K-ray. this is interesting stuff, and really should be considered when putting in a factory. Maybe the Chinese know something we don't? "sure, put that new non state owned factory right there on the coast!"

I have to say, I've shared your article about supercharging and EV charging after the last years USA Hurricanes about 1000 times, so hopefully, you're getting some good adsense monetization on that and well - you owe me a cup of coffee. ;-)

 

[tivoboy]

He absolutely has to announce it if it is going to happen. No choice in that part of the matter. It isn't material to either Elon or Tesla in terms of money, it's a statement, and the time to make a statement is now.

but, he has purchased over 35M in stock over the past six months and didn't make such a NEWSY announcement. Of course that was included in corporate filings, but it wasn't put out on the loud speaker.

 

[avoigt]

Aren't they required to file a 8k for this?

0001564590-18-024373 | 8-K | Tesla, Inc.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

but, he has purchased over 35M in stock over the past six months and didn't make such a NEWSY announcement. Of course that was included in corporate filings, but it wasn't put out on the loud speaker.

I refer the Right Honorable Gentleman to the answer I gave some moments ago:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[KarenRei]

I realized LONG ago that one doesn't try to argue climate change or environment science with K-ray. this is interesting stuff, and really should be considered when putting in a factory. Maybe the Chinese know something we don't? "sure, put that new non state owned factory right there on the coast!"

I have to say, I've shared your article about supercharging and EV charging after the last years USA Hurricanes about 1000 times, so hopefully, you're getting some good adsense monetization on that and well - you owe me a cup of coffee. ;-)

Never been paid a dime for anything I've written. Never tried to get paid for anything.

 

[tivoboy]

Aren't they required to file a 8k for this?

I don't think it's the 8k, it's an SEC filing. Musk actually has been buying a LOT of stock (at these levels and lower certainly) but did we get some big announcement for those - nope, it's just in the SEC filings. Why now? That's what has me a tad concerned.