TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[HG Wells]

AH the beginnings of a new book appear!

Industrial genius Elon has come upon a startling discovery. He is prevented from informing the public and must do it by passing on clues.

The clues include a reference to the fictional culture empire, a globe of Mars, and a picture of a lemur.

What does it all mean?

Why first contact of course !
Now what will that do to the markets!

 

[Heimdallr]

Sorry, in that interview I cannot see MBS saying that "Saudi Arabia has a huge deal on October 18 with Tesla".

If you can then please cite the relevant section of the interview.

Did you find the interview transcript?

 

[KarenRei]

Don't tell the shorts but lemurs are called like that because of the large eyes and the ancient Romans thought it looks like "Death Ghost" eyes. Can't wait for the moment we hear a story about Elon advised the Tesla Death Ghost is expected today (Lemures)

Just in case, I'll walk barefoot at midnight with gaze averted and throw black beans over my shoulder while chanting "Haec ego mitto; his redimo meque meosque fabis" nine times

 

[Fact Checking]

Do we still not have a set date for the earnings call?

Last year Tesla announced the November 1 earnings report date on October 19, i.e. if they are following that historic pattern they'll announce the ER date tomorrow (October 19, Friday) after the market has closed.

But they could also skip the announcement, which is voluntary: ~40% of firms publicly traded in the U.S. never announce a date, ~45% do it intermittently, only ~15% do it for every quarter.

 

[KarenRei]

Did you find the interview transcript?

We can all see the interview transcript. We can also see where the sections talking about the investment are separated from the sections talking about Tesla by the words "On a separate note".

 

[serverguy247]

Sorry, in that interview I cannot see MBS saying that "Saudi Arabia has a huge deal on October 18 with Tesla".

If you can then please cite the relevant section of the interview.

I think they are actually referring to a hint that was given. That there will be a big announcement in something "far from oil" in the "Future Investment Initiative conference" which is actually on the 23rd (until the 25th). So not the 18th. And may well be nothing to do with Tesla.

 

[Fact Checking]

Did you find the interview transcript?

The grandparent post linked to the transcript, but I cannot find such an MBS claim there. Can you quote the part where MBS discloses that "Saudi Arabia has a huge deal on October 18 with Tesla"?

 

[Heimdallr]

The grandparent post linked to the transcript, but I cannot find such an MBS claim there. Can you quote the part where MBS discloses that "Saudi Arabia has a huge deal on October 18 with Tesla"?

No, because I don't subscribe to that website, so I cannot even see the transcript everyone is talking about.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think they are actually referring to a hint that was given. That there will be a big announcement in something "far from oil" in the "Future Investment Initiative conference" which is actually on the 23rd (until the 25th). So not the 18th. And may well be nothing to do with Tesla.

Yeah, that's the interview I was reading too, with an emphasis on "may well be nothing to do with Tesla".

My impression is that it's a huge solar farm, not involving Tesla - but I could be wrong.

 

[Fact Checking]

No, because I don't subscribe to that website, so I cannot even see the transcript everyone is talking about.

There's ~10 free articles per month limit I think (no subscription or registration required), which you can reset by clearing browser cookies?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So not the 18th. And may well be nothing to do with Tesla.

The interview refers to multiple projects, with an announcement "in 2 weeks", and the Innovations Conference. The interview was held on Oct 4th.

We'll see if events in Turkey affect the timetable.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I love Elon's code language like: Lemur, special circumstances, a mecha, Teslaquila, naughty by nature, don't panic...
He wants to scream that info to us but rules don't allow him so code language is awesome

I don't know what I love more? Is it a code language itself or the fact that he is teasing the bull with red flag?

"Short burn of the century" wasn't so coded, and we know how that turned into long burn of the century. There are many examples like that, but can you think of one example when any of the tweets turned out well for longs?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Looks like Teslarati.com are returning to disqus comments. I think they switched thinking they could stop the trolling, but all they did was kill the discussion.
I say this because I can see a test forum linked to their staging server 7 days ago.

Disqus Conversations - TESLARATI

 

[Carl Raymond]

I have a tip for ig.com users who fund their account in something other than US dollars (I use Australian dollars). I learned this today after realising I was being charged a different buy and sell rate on trades. ig was effectively charging me half a percent on top of the US$10 commission.

Go to currency conversion and switch from automatic to manual. Now you can sell and buy in US dollars. If you need to convert back to local, you can then execute that when the rate is favourable.

 

[gora321]

"Short burn of the century" wasn't so coded, and we know how quickly that turned into long burn of the century. There are many examples like that, but can you think of one example when any of the tweets turned out well for longs?

Ask me that after 5-10 years. I just want that Elon be Elon and not someone else. If you are worried what SP will be after his coding than you are probably not long. Long means what he achieved in 5-10 years and not yesterday.

I see that FUD affecting you. Please do not live in fear what negative people will say. They will say it anyway.

 

[KarenRei]

Just throwing this out there:

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Long means what he achieved in 5-10 years and not yesterday.

Please don't minimize investor concerns by labeling it as some sort of short-sighted rent-seeking. The fact is that the stock hasn't done anything in nearly five years, while NASDAQ doubled. Per your definition, with which I agree, that's long-term. This has nothing to do with FUD or living in fear; I'm stating facts. This habit of mislabeling any concerned bull as speculator/short/bear/FUD is not helpful.

 

[bdy0627]

"Short burn of the century" wasn't so coded, and we know how quickly that turned into long burn of the century. There are many examples like that, but can you think of one example when any of the tweets turned out well for longs?

Totally agree. Shorts clearly have deep pockets and love to rain on Elon's parade when he tweets things that strongly suggest the stock is going to climb and the shorts will get burned, at least in the short to medium term. I don't think it's wise to give the shorts advance warning of positive accomplishments because then they have the time, and the means, to control the narrative when the actual news hits. Far more effective to quietly execute and release the news to the market when it is time, i.e. speak softly and carry a big stick. The reality is that positive surprises are hugely effective against a high short interest. Advanced hints/warnings are not. Do not give shorts, with their collusion with the media, the opportunity to control the news narrative. It's time for positive surprises.

I'm at a point now where, based upon past history, I routinely expect selling of the news whenever Elon drops hints about the news ahead of time. The consistently successful trade is to anticipate the climb to the news event, and then sell it. I don't want Elon, however cryptically, to provide hints about upcoming financial news/short burns/privatizations etc... I admit they can be entertaining but they have often enriched short sellers rather than shareholders. In the absence of the hints, I think the outcome might be different.

 

[KarenRei]

Please don't minimize investor concerns by labeling it as some sort of short-sighted rent-seeking. The fact is that the stock hasn't done anything in nearly five years, while NASDAQ doubled. Per your definition, with which I agree, that's long-term. This has nothing to do with FUD or living in fear; I'm stating facts. This habit of mislabeling any concerned bull as short/bear/FUD is not helpful.

TSLA five years ago today: $183,40
TSLA today: $271,78
Annualized return: 8%

And it's only that small because October 2013 was a local peak; the stock lost a third of its value by late November. But sorry that you find this to be some sort of disaster. BTW, try extending your horizon to six years:

TSLA six years ago today: $28,04
TSLA today: $271,78
Annualized return: 46%

ED: Yeah, go on, "disagree" with facts.

 

[Heimdallr]

−3.53 (1.30%)
Doesn't look like anyone is expecting a major Tesla announcement today.