TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Psss, Trump hasn't invaded Canada and made it the 51st State yet.

LOL!

 

[Matias]

Tesla is not selling FSD anymore

What happened to the FSD option????

To people, who disagree with this post, what are you disagreeing?

 

[Matias]

No more Full Self Driving option on S/X I thing they want to change name or something before appear again ?

“not full self driving”

 

[cheshire cat]

Psss, Trump hasn't invaded Canada and made it the 51st State yet.

Give him time, maybe the same reason as the Polish farmer who when questioned by the KGB as to why his farmhouse should be on the Polish side of the redrafted border rather than the Russian side, said. "I can't stand these Russian winters"

 

[Fact Checking]

You just had to make it sound, as if in 2008 ICE carmakers had promised EV heaven and something that would be competitive to todays Model 3 regarding price and volume to have a strawman.

I actually said, quote:

"after 10 years of empty promises the traditional ICE automotive industry has yet to demonstrate a single competitive product on the level of the Model 3, let alone broadly available options that could meaningfully compete with Tesla on quality, price and volume."

"There's plenty of examples of failed EV promises and empty anti-EV posturing over the last 10 years by the ICE automotive industry"​

Just a cursory search would have helped you discover various quotes from early "Tesla skeptics" rooted in the ICE automotive industry, all the way back to 2008, fretting about Tesla competitors - which have not materialized in the 10 years since then.

There's also this gem predicting that VW would dominate electric cars, back in early 2010 ...

No. That's not something i wrote or wanted to express.

You never actually made a fully coherent argument that I could recognize, so I was guessing as to what it was and must have gotten it wrong - could you please spell out your argument more clearly (or repeat it), if there is one?

 

[Cattledog]

Tesla has so many more 'levers of demand' compared to ICE carmakers. Here's a few they've not activated yet for the Model 3:

• No international sales of the Model 3 yet, at all: and the smaller form factor should be particularly popular in Europe, so at least 60% of the global Model 3 market is still not utilized.
• No leasing of the Model 3 yet, at all: even of high-end Model S/X leasing is ~11% of their current sales. With lower ASPs the proportion of leasing and financing increases - so if Tesla wanted to increase demand this way they'd start offer 'captured' financing options with the Model 3 as well.
• The Premium Upgrades Package is still bundled, and no Standard Range option yet either.
• Tesla doesn't do any mass advertising. A single well-made Super Bowl ad, Apple-style, could easily generate hundreds of thousands of new orders ...

Those are only the most obvious ones - and like Medium Range was a surprise option, I'm sure they can think of other levers as well.

Not the least of which will be the introduction of the Model Y next March. It will create buzz, drive traffic to Tesla, and many of those people will choose to buy a Model 3, X or S. Exactly the same way Model 3 did not Osborne the Model S + X but rather helped with the continuity of 100K+ demand years.

 

[cheshire cat]

I’m still waiting for the revolutionary GM Hy-Wire.

And let’s not forget how VW has completely dominated the EV market with the E-UP and E-Golf.

Volkswagen Will Dominate the World of Electric Cars. Got That?

Don' t get me started on that one, I couldn't get them to sell me one stood there with a fist full of cash, clowns.

 

[Tslynk67]

This is a non-sequitur. You could as easily make the case that they are not selling FSD anymore because they realized they are not that close. It's also impossible to 'flush out the old hardware' since it is needed for EAP, an option that they continue to sell.

They've clearly removed it due to the class-action suit they just lost. Likely it won't be offered as an option until a lot more of the FSD features are actually available.

Edit: the current situation of removing the FSD option is far more confusing and footer for negative press. I think Tesla should make an official statement about what's going on.

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla removes ‘Full Self-Driving Capability’ package from its options due to ‘confusion’
Fred negative on FSD removal. I hope he is wrong and it is the opposite - super confidence of FSD being close. Also Trevor misinterpreted the Tweet thinking FSD is coming back in a week:

First couple of minutes.
Elon has added to the confusion at the mo....
Trevor also mentions EAP working in town now to some degree. Am I the only one caught out by this? It seems that EAP is gonna be all the FSD functionality except for having to pay attention and FSD will then come in with almost no user testing required.

 

[avoigt]

I could not agree more to Fact Checking here.

YasB I tried hard to understand what you write and have a question.

Do you seriously believe all ICE manufacturers could produce a car like the 3 but did not do by purpose, accepting to loose large revenue in the US and their rankings as well?

Seriously, is that what you are saying?

@YasB

What is your answer?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Regarding the market action thread being overtaken by "gossip", I have a few random points:
I have been guilty.
I have been annoyed by it.
I have tried going elsewhere (and continue to) but you get so little back and forth discussion, it leaves you with a hollow feeling in your heart.
General discussion has had 1 post in 24 hrs...
There are many great specific threads that are not polluted and we want to keep them that way.
What do we really mean by market action anyway? We can all see that the SP just went up. Lemur/lemr build up and reality affects the SP more than Munro proving that we are all investment oracles for instance.
My mitigation is that when catching up, I usually only read posts with 2+ positive emojis.

I also don’t mind when the discussion is not exactly market action oriented but still Tesla related. The problem is the loooong posts about the technology behind AP, the political situation in Belgium or the total area of forests in California... And some discussions seem to have no end (what does Lemur mean? how should we view the $20 million stock buy? did I lose money by investing in TSLA and not AAPL?). If we could show some more restraint in topic choice and topic length, that would already help a lot.

 

[Buckminster]

Not sure which thread this belongs in so I will just leave it here:
TSLA up to $268.45.

 

[humbaba]

I believe that requires;

a) knowing the chef
b) having the chef owe you for the stock tip you gave him last week that made him enough money to pay off his gambling debts
c) slipping a Benjamin to the waiter to go and get the chef out of the kitchen so you can order off menu

I'm not sure I get the ratings on your post. I sincerely took this as funny (I laughed, though not literally out loud). Seeing the ratings I re-read to make sure I was getting it right. If it wasn't meant as funny, I apologize as no offense intended. I like the post.

 

[humbaba]

Sheikh, et al. v. Tesla, Inc.

This settlement was approved in court in San Jose yesterday. I wonder if this is the confusion Elon was talking about regarding FSD, although I think this lawsuit was only in regards to EAP so I’m probably wrong. The timing sure is coincidental though.

Spot on. In particular, the complaint about a schedule. Never mind that Tesla's FSD information clearly stated that it was unknown when it would actually become available, they don't need to keep defending against frivolous lawsuits.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Not sure which thread this belongs in so I will just leave it here:
TSLA up to $268.45.

Nube comment. Seeking to learn...
The stock seems to go through a daily cycle where it gets hammered hard every 20 mins or so for the first two hours, then quietly bought up again in the afternoon. So unless there's a good news event, it finishes down. I've tried trading on the daily cycle, hoping to make them pay for their disregard for progress, but meagre winnings get eaten by commissions.
Anybody out there beating the shorts on the daily downswing?

 

[KarenRei]

Spot on. In particular, the complaint about a schedule. Never mind that Tesla's FSD information clearly stated that it was unknown when it would actually become available, they don't need to keep defending against frivolous lawsuits.

But this settlement is really old news; how would it being finalized change anything? Tesla has known it was going to be finalized ever since it was agreed upon, and that hasn't changed anything about how they've positioned FSD. And there's nothing in the agreement that says anything about FSD. So why would it have an effect now?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nube comment. Seeking to learn...
The stock seems to go through a daily cycle where it gets hammered hard every 20 mins or so for the first two hours, then quietly bought up again in the afternoon. So unless there's a good news event, it finishes down. I've tried trading on the daily cycle, hoping to make them pay for their disregard for progress, but meagre winnings get eaten by commissions.
Anybody out there beating the shorts on the daily downswing?

Try swing trading instead of day trading if you don't have enough capital for 100 share lot trades, and cash in reserve for 'surprises' (boombergs)

TSLA has made 3 or 4 $50+ swings in the last few months. Watch the news; trade accordingly.

Cheers, and good luck!

 

[jeewee3000]

I also don’t mind when the discussion is not exactly market action oriented but still Tesla related. The problem is the loooong posts about the technology behind AP, the political situation in Belgium or the total area of forests in California... And some discussions seem to have no end (what does Lemur mean? how should we view the $20 million stock buy? did I lose money by investing in TSLA and not AAPL?). If we could show some more restraint in topic choice and topic length, that would already help a lot.

I think we should just do whatever we're doing in the Market Action thread over in the General thread. If we can get everybody to switch mentality we'll only have to get up to speed on the general thread.

Regarding market action, we could either:
1) be strict in its use and use general for gossip;
2) combine it with the general thread. Let's face it, the two are being used for the same purposes and the argument "this connects to the SP because it has a vague effect on how Tesla is portrayed out there" can always be made about anything.

 

[cheshire cat]

Spot on. In particular, the complaint about a schedule. Never mind that Tesla's FSD information clearly stated that it was unknown when it would actually become available, they don't need to keep defending against frivolous lawsuits.

People with too much money who are only qualified to purchase a can of baked beans- tin- check, beans (on trust) - check, full? (Hopefully)- check. Stick-'em over there with the whiners

 

[elasalle]

Milk Carton Ad .. Tesla Lemmings buying more Lemurs