TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Good, or bad, or both...?

Looks like Fred's pissed Elon off big-time...

 

[strangecosmos]

Oh, gotcha seemed like a real analysis/ view, but if it was just a worst case spitballing/ value prediction, that still makes Tesla look good, I'm all for it! (I've been dinged on overly pessimistic base assumption that still may a great case for Tesla also).

Yes, exactly. It’s just spitballing. Like, back of the envelope math.

I don’t like that you were dinged for being “too pessimistic” in a scenario... where I imagine Tesla still increases its valuation since you said it’s still a great case? I think it’s good to consider all kinds of scenarios, from worst case (bankruptcy) to bad case to meh case to good case to best case. Considering all the possible outcomes doesn’t make you (gasp) a traitor.

It’s a bit disconcerting when I see people posting about buying more shares than they can afford. And then attacking anyone who thinks Tesla will be worth less than $17 trillion. It reminds me too much of the crypto community. Where people mortgage their houses to buy Bitcoin and then send death threats over max block size. Or where even among enthusiasts and people who bet a lot of money, there is very little discussion or understanding of the technology and almost zero discussion of valuation modelling. I’ve talked to someone who had most of their net worth in crypto (which was far more than my net worth) and didn’t know what delegated proof of stake is. The online crypto communities are mostly just people obsessively watching the price and hyping each other up. Hoddddddllllllllllll....!

Ethereum has a market value of $20 billion and, when I was researching it, I couldn’t find a single valuation model on the Internet. I searched pretty extensively and asked around. It’s crazy that something could be valued at $20 billion and apparently no one is talking about how much it’s worth. I dived pretty deep into the topic and then I realized with shock that the value of 1 Ether could end up being inversely correlated with the success of the Ethereum platform, which is a hell of a realization. If you value Ether like a currency rather than like equity in a company, the result totally flips. When I tried to discuss this idea online, the reaction was mostly dismissive and hostile, as (unfortunately) you’d expect. I could be totally wrong, and I’m still holding about 30% of the Ether I bought in case I am (it’s a very small amount), but I was a little shook by that experience. It feels like scary irrational exuberance. Ether holders might make lambo money, but if they do, it will be by luck. Because it seems like no one is trying to figure out how to even value it.

So, my point being, money and the feeling that you’re part of a righteous cause can make people act in shocking ways. You can be right that Ethereum will be an incredibly disruptive, world-changing technology and wrong that the value of Ether will increase over time. You should at least check, and be open to the idea that you’re wrong. With Ethereum I had that moment of, “oh my god, my whole thesis is wrong.” With Tesla, I want to explore any counterargument I find. If I’m wrong, I want to know as soon as possible, so I can sell while I’m up or at least minimize my losses.

The idea that if you’re part of the Tesla tribe you have to cheer all ideas about Tesla being a multi-trillion dollar enterprise and boo all ideas about Tesla being potentially overvalued... that’s unhealthy. That’s irrational exuberance.

We should thank the skeptics because they’ll either a) show us our error, saving us money or b) increase our alpha.

 

[KarenRei]

Reign it in their soldier. The sequoia can only grow so fast.

Sorry to ruin your analogy, but sequoias are actually rather fast-growing trees In good conditions they'll grow over a meter per year, for decades. And a mature sequoia will put on the mass of a 15-meter tall / 30cm diameter tree every year.

Maybe you meant "The saguaro can only grow so fast"

 

[TradingInvest]

Rons price target is 20 times $300 = $ 6,000

I think Ron said a few times they expect to make 20 times of what they invested, so roughly $210 X 20 = $4100 per share.

He once also said Tesla's Market cap could reach $1.3T. Then the share price would be above $7000. If we get sizable share buyback down the road as I expected, share price could reach much higher. My spreadsheet shows the market cap is likely to pass 1T by 2032, based on 10% net profit and P/E of 8. These are all rough estimates. Lots of factors can change things down the road. The biggest unknown is autonomous driving. I assume eventually several companies can do this, Tesla being one of them. I think today Tesla is leading.

 

[EVNow]

Seen a lot names thrown around fo chairman. Larry Ellison is the first serious one I would consider in my opinion.

Larry has the reputation of being a loose cannon. Infact the saying among Oracle employees was that whenever he opened his mouth the Oracle SP would drop. But Larry would probably be better than many non-tech CEOs mentioned here (like that Murdoch guy).

Given his considerable holding, not sure he will qualify as independent, though.

Remember him in mid nineties saying pcs were history and trying to pitch cheap keyboard computer that would be all about the internet. It failed miserably but he was right.

Funny thing is he didn't completely believe in internet. Marc Benioff, who worked at Oracle at the time, first pitched his idea about a hosted CRM service to Larry but Larry wasn't interested. Marc went out of Oracle and started Salesforce. Today Salesforce market cap is about 2/3rds of Oracle's.

 

[strangecosmos]

TA is not magic and it won’t predict everything, but it’s an extremely powerful tool if you know how and when to use it.

I have always thought that technical analysis was BS, but experience has completely changed my mind.
You will find the answer to your questions in any serious book about trading.
Just look at option sniper on Twitter. He has an unbelievable success rate using pure TA.

I mean, try flipping a coin. Heads — buy. Tails — sell. Do that 100 times, and chances are good you’ll get a hot streak. You could easily be right 7 times in a row. That’s just statistics.

Also, when you have untold thousands or millions of people trading in the stock market, you are going to get a small number of people who have uncannily long hot streaks. Again, that’s just statistics.

Has @option_sniper had all their predictions tracked and benchmarked against the S&P 500 or the total stock market?

 

[KarenRei]

Good, or bad, or both...?

Looks like Fred's pissed Elon off big-time...

View attachment 347512

He tried to do something nice for customers, got bashed in the "media" for it, and decided to pay out a good chunk of a hundred million dollars in appeasement money to stop the attacks. I feel bad for him. Especially given that this happened in the middle of this DOJ nonsense. At what should be a happy time, after such a spectacular quarter.

 

[strangecosmos]

Wasn't there a guy who used his free supercharging to mine bitcoin? lol

That’s what we call... arbitrage!

 

[S3XY]

So, what I wrote back in 2014 was this.

* Any time Tesla adds significant new features, they need to raise the price of the car with the new features.
* Ideally, the new features will be added as options. If they have to physically include them on all cars, they can software-lock cars which are going to people who don't buy the option.
* After a month or two, they can discontinue the model without the new features, making it standard, but at the higher price.
* A month after, they can reduce the price of the car with the new feature somewhat, honoring the price reduction for anyone who hasn't received their car yet.
* They can walk the price down a step at a time until it reaches the original price (or not, depending on pricing policy).
* They can also offer software unlocks for the same price as the option, and also walk that price down.
* About a year later, they can software-unlock the software-locked models at no charge without people being particularly upset.

Final result is that you have the new feature on all cars at the original price, but nobody is annoyed.

Rinse and repeat with every significant hardware feature. Nobody will complain.

sounds like a good idea to me. Did you run it by Fred?

 

[strangecosmos]

LOL!

Thank you for that. But I've gotta say - you aren't going to make a lot of friends in *this* forum.

I like to wander into lion’s dens and tell people what they don’t want to hear. Because I hate myself

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Good, or bad, or both...?

Looks like Fred's pissed Elon off big-time...

View attachment 347512

Helicopter ergo teleprompter hoc.

I don't think that was causal.

 

[MXWing]

I’m sure many will disagree but I am wanting to be constructive to resolve this issue. It’s not just @Fact Checking but Emotion Checking as well.

MXWing on Twitter

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Sorry to ruin your analogy, but sequoias are actually rather fast-growing trees In good conditions they'll grow over a meter per year, for decades. And a mature sequoia will put on the mass of a 15-meter tall / 30cm diameter tree every year.

Maybe you meant "The saguaro can only grow so fast"

Hey no reason to get prickly with the analogies!

 

[EVMeister]

Does this really belong in the Market Action thread? I'm sick of reading about it (sorry). I know it's the weekend, but let's just give the mods one weekend without a delete-storm to contend with.

 

[strangecosmos]

 

[dmckinstry]

Average driving 4000 miles a year on trips is not the average. Average 20000 miles a year is 5000 over average of all drivers average. I wont ask your opinion on average penis size

Yep. I've driven about 20000 miles per year over the past 5+ years. About 6500 miles a year include round trips to and from Columbia, MO and to and from Desert Hot Springs, CA. I usually do other smaller trips for an additional 1000 miles a year. For me, it's no so much about the cost as about the convenience.

 

[Sudre]

No Model 3 ever has supercharging stay with the car when transferred.

I’m an economist and wouldn’t make a rookie mistake like not factoring in the transferability of super charging into any cost analysis calculations.

Though transferable supercharging would appease people overnight....

Not relevant actually. The refund of the $5K to the car still makes it worth less. I am willing to bet that the seller, if they got the refund, would still try to sell the car for the same price as those who did not. Transferable or not. The car was purchased for 5K less. In my mind it is worth 5K less.

Are you telling me that you are going to pay the same resale price for a car that you now know is worth 5K less?

Actually asking that question has made me rethink my position. Elon just made the resale value of all performance model 3 worth less because the true price is now questionable. It seems all the buyers that paid the extra $5k should take the refund because all the cars will be valued 5K less without the free superchargers.... which goes away once the original owner sells it. He just tacked on an immediate $5k loss. Everyone should get their Tesla rebate now.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hey I was the first one here to point out you deserved credit... where's my cookie.

That's right! I did see that! Thank you. Not that I was looking for anyone to defend me, but I thought it was admirable that you did that.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Ok market action. When can we expect Moody's to upgrade? If there's at least some chance they won't (which I have no idea about) then when they do that would be an event.

 

[TradingInvest]

I'm under no delusion that Fred is a reporter or Electrek is a news site.

Fred is arguably Tesla's #1 evangelist and Electrek is what it is mainly because Tesla leaks info to them. They have access nobody else does.

So I find it a bit humorous when the the top writer for Tesla's de-facto propaganda department gets in a huff because Tesla made a change and he didn't get advance notice.

My dog will bark at my wife when she want's food because she knows my wife will give it to her. For me she waits patiently by her bowl because she knows that behavior will get her nowhere.

I'm really surprised Elon hasn't put Fred in his place.

A while back Elon on Twitter stopped following Electrek, but Elon still follows Cleantechnica, Teslarati and InsideEVs. Don't know why.

Today my comment got deleted from Electrek which I said I will not go to Electrek anymore. I don't know why they deleted my comment.

My favorite place is still this forum, I learned a lot from many people here. I will also visit Cleantechnica, Teslarati and InsideEVs occasionally.