TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

Thats correct but you watch Monday a founder and CEO again buying an additional share of his company. He owns a lot already and decided to add.

I guess we will see. How long after these purchases does Tesla have to make the SEC filing? (A filing is required right?)

Will it be Monday after close?

Its a sign of confidence in the future of Tesla and a confirmation that the SP in his view is undervalued. A good deal for Tesla and Elon.

No, anyone following things knows it is because he wants to reimburse Tesla for their $20 million fine, it has nothing to do with his view that Tesla may, or may not, be undervalued.

 

[AWDtsla]

Travel chargers are always going to be safe.

I live by chargers where people argue over line cutting and I have mediated disputes personally.

I am not a fan of FUSC and prefer it be taken from everyone despite having two cars that have it.

It incentivizes bad behavior per Elon even. At this point it’s a lesser of evils that take doesn’t sap capital from Tesla and solves the PR mess.

Nope. Not only does unlimited supercharging encourage locals to use the superchargers, it also encourages travelers to stay at superchargers longer than they would have to to reach their destination. The delta is dramatic, let's say from 10-20 minutes vs 1.5 hours. You can tell from teslafi data that most people are charging to 100%.

 

[Matias]

See this thread, there was 19 pages very fast.

Performance Upgrade Price Change!

Is one unknown blogger suddenly new Oprah? It is ridiculous to blame Fred for this. There was genuine customer uproar. It was Elon’s decision to refund 5k. If you don’t like that, blame Elon. Not some unknown blogger.

 

[Earlian]

FYI: Somebody just 'liked' my comment from 94 pages ago...
That's two days worth.

He’s not the onlyone spending hours to catch up.

I prefer reading here if I took a longer break, over so called „news“-papers or TV, especially if something exciting is underway. And this year is a hell of a ride!

We might remember this golden times here some years from now (where we withnessed the historical things that happened around Tesla and the transition to EVs on our planet) and we will be happy, that we followed it as closely as we could. Because every fun gets to an end someday.

 

[strangecosmos]

For TSLA I find it useful for determining local tops and bottoms not spanning more than a few weeks. It’s human psychology. Why did I think 250 would be a likely bottom when the stock was dropping? Because it was a bottom not long ago. It can save you a few bucks. I definitely don’t use TA beyond that. And yes it often won’t work because real news events trump it every time (cough SEC cough WSJ cough DOJ cough).

Check out this paper:

“This paper offers a method for generating discrimination criteria that can be used to identify strong patterns in stock market data. More effective criteria are necessary as short-term trades are often driven by noise rather than valid market signals - a viewpoint known as the "noisy trader" model of the stock market. To demonstrate why traditional technical analysis falls short, we applied the standard methods to a synthetic market generated by a random walk. Although the market data is engineered to be pure noise, technical analysis "discovers" strong features such as accumulation/distribution patterns, upward and downward trends, support and resistance levels. These secondary features represent noise in the technical indicators.”

I think the paper goes onto say there may be technical indicators that have better-than-chance predictive power, but the math is so complex I can’t understand it.

If you want to capitalize on that, better hope no high-frequency algo coders read this 2016 paper already.

 

[Cobbler]

I just heard this rumour about the ''fud FBI report" on WSJ:
So Rupert is pushing the stock down as long his son James isn't chairman of Tesla? Could this even be possible?

 

[Matias]

I just heard this rumour about the ''fud FBI report" on WSJ:
So Rupert is pushing the stock down as long his son James isn't chairman of Tesla? Could this even be possible?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nope. Not only does unlimited supercharging encourage locals to use the superchargers, it also encourages travelers to stay at superchargers longer than they would have to to reach their destination. The delta is dramatic, let's say from 10-20 minutes vs 1.5 hours. You can tell from teslafi data that most people are charging to 100%.

Oh I agree, but there's are some easy technical fixes via SC policies:

• Max charge 80% until you disconnect
• 30 minute minimum until can start another charging session
• No free charging within 55% of max range of your home base
• electronic virtue queue for SC line-ups visible in-car
• reserve a charging time/slot via in-car navigation

Okay haha, obviously not so easy fix, but if Elon could pass the problem over to his team, it could be muddled out. He doesn't have to solve ever problem personally on his way to saving this planet, and being the Founder of the next one.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

He’s not the onlyone spending hours to catch up.

I prefer reading here if I took a longer break, over so called „news“-papers or TV, especially if something exciting is underway. And this year is a hell of a ride!

We might remember this golden times here some years from now (where we withnessed the historical things that happened around Tesla and the transition to EVs on our planet) and we will be happy, that we followed it as closely as we could. Because every fun gets to an end someday.

 

[AWDtsla]

Oh I agree, but there's are some easy technical fixes via SC policies:

• Max charge 80% until you disconnect
• 30 minute minimum until can start another charging session

This is unworkable. Sometimes you really do need a 100% charge. This proposal impairs the functionality of the car.

• No free charging within 55% of max range of your home base

Also as well unworkable. There are superchargers that are not for from my home, but I need to take 100% charge to make it back to that supercharger round trip. If you reduce this to something more like 10% range, maaaaybe. Still difficult to determine what "home base" is.

• electronic virtue queue for SC line-ups visible in-car
• reserve a charging time/slot via in-car navigation

Okay haha, obviously not so easy fix, but if Elon could pass the problem over to his team, it could be muddled out. He doesn't have to solve ever problem personally on his way to saving this planet, and being the Founder of the next one.

Cheers!

They need a queue management system FOR SURE.

 

[Beltsbear]

Oh I agree, but there's are some easy technical fixes via SC policies:

• Max charge 80% until you disconnect
• 30 minute minimum until can start another charging session
• No free charging within 55% of max range of your home base
• electronic virtue queue for SC line-ups visible in-car
• reserve a charging time/slot via in-car navigation

Okay haha, obviously not so easy fix, but if Elon could pass the problem over to his team, it could be muddled out. He doesn't have to solve ever problem personally on his way to saving this planet, and being the Founder of the next one.

Cheers!

Those are good ideas. But max 80% charge when station is near full is my favorite. Virtual line is good too. Reservations are a big waste of time/resources though.

 

[MP3Mike]

I started avoiding the site and stopped listening to the podcasts when the clickbait titles started. There are plenty of other resources out there and this is my small (tiny) way of showing my displeasure.

I still visit his site as he has news that isn't always report elsewhere, but I turned my ad blocker on for his site, so he gets no more ad impressions from me.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

See this thread, there was 19 pages very fast.

Performance Upgrade Price Change!

Is one unknown blogger suddenly new Oprah? It is ridiculous to blame Fred for this. There was genuine customer uproar. It was Elon’s decision to refund 5k. If you don’t like that, blame Elon. Not some unknown blogger.

Yeah -- c'mon guys. Fred's just the name on the tin here, he didn't cause Elon to logoff or create the rebate. I think the first reaction to hearing the price cut for 90% of people is going to be negative. It's human nature. People feel a little less special when someone else gets a better deal and we all spend most of our time trying to feel special. Same reason Tesla needs to get to the model Y as fast as possible, rather than strain in the washroom to get out the 35k$ model, because the model 3 is gonna hit market penetration levels in some markets where people don't buy simply because it isn't special.

See how I tied all that together?

 

[MXWing]

Oh I agree, but there's are some easy technical fixes via SC policies:

• Max charge 80% until you disconnect
• 30 minute minimum until can start another charging session
• No free charging within 55% of max range of your home base
• electronic virtue queue for SC line-ups visible in-car
• reserve a charging time/slot via in-car navigation

Okay haha, obviously not so easy fix, but if Elon could pass the problem over to his team, it could be muddled out. He doesn't have to solve ever problem personally on his way to saving this planet, and being the Founder of the next one.

Cheers!

There will be corner cases where you might need a full 100% to get from A-B.

Geofencing might run into legal and contractual loans mines.

Electronic queuing can’t account for parked but not charging cars aka ICEd.

I admire the effort and hope something works out.

FUSC should be removed from all cars even myself as a beneficiary as it incentivizes bad behavior and creates adverse selection. Good luck to me on suggesting that.

 

[Beltsbear]

This is unworkable. Sometimes you really do need a 100% charge. This proposal impairs the functionality of the car.

It’s pretty obvious which stations those are that users need 100% and they are a very small minority. Also 80% rule would only need to be in effect when the station is mostly full.

 

[Drumheller]

Those are good ideas. But max 80% charge when station is near full is my favorite. Virtual line is good too. Reservations are a big waste of time/resources though.

Max charge of 80% is a really bad idea. There are various sizes of batteries / range in the cars. I've had to sit and wait for 100% charge in my 85 to make a jump. One time, I still didn't have enough range and ended up having to find a Level 2 on the way to the next supercharger.

 

[AWDtsla]

It’s pretty obvious which stations those are that users need 100% and they are a very small minority. Also 80% rule would only need to be in effect when the station is mostly full.

That still screws over the person that actually needed 100%. You're clearly not going to wherever you wanted to go unless you want to get towed back.

The only thing that works is encouragement to take only what you need. Rates slightly over what you could get at home accomplish that, nothing else. Anything else you can think of either gives somebody the short end of the stick, or allows people to game the system.

edit - and no, you can't know which stations those are. Just think through this for more than a minute.

 

[Gavyne]

If Fred’s article was groundless, why Elon decided to refund? Electrek is not that powerful.

Does Elon refund 5k every time some blogger criticises something?

You need to understand Elon is a nice guy, a genuine nice guy who cares about Tesla owners. The man choked up while thanking his fans for volunteering to help for crying out loud.

People like Fred pushed Elon knowing Elon is a nice guy and would cave. That's what I don't appreciate. People should be caring about the success of Tesla and should be happy about Tesla making their top trim Model 3 more attractive to new buyers. But instead it became a "me me me" moment that showed the true face of many people.

Elon did admit they should not have made the price drop so quickly at such large amount. I wish he didn't offer $5k refund. This isn't something that anybody would do, no company out there would give you $5k back because they ran a sales event weeks after you had purchased your car. Elon did it because he is a genuine nice guy. People took advantage of that.

He should've just offered Tesla credit so people can buy whatever they want from Tesla store. That would cost the company less.

 

[MXWing]

The fact that a $20 billion CEO kowtowed to some guy on the Internet with a blog sending him tweets absolutely should be questioned at this point. Elon needs to know who he is at this point. He should have told Fred "Free Roadster" Lambert to go pound sand. Every other Tesla owner since the first original Roadster left the manufacturing facility (they didn't even have a factory then!) has had to deal with sudden price changes and if you've been around Tesla long enough it's very likely you've gotten screwed by a sudden price or feature or package change yourself. Everyone else isn't a big name with a blog though so we all just ate it because last I checked saving humanity from climate change still takes priority. Except if you're Fred Lambert apparently, we now know that in the mind of Fred Lambert, only Fred Lambert takes priority.

Elon could ignore or block Fred or any number of his millions of twitter followers.

The staff at sales centers, delivery centers, finance team, those manning the customer service phones and emails are going to get crushed. Where are they going to run and hide.

Stop swinging off Elon’s nuts. This was a unnecessary disaster and TSLA needs to not think it is isolated from the opinions of Tesla OWNERS.

All Tesla has to do was:

Force bundled PUP. Raise P price by $3000.

No one complains and Tesla makes 3000 more per car.

Cook the frog slowly. Even Elon admitted to such after defiance and doubling down on his initial position.

 

[MP3Mike]

It’s pretty obvious which stations those are that users need 100% and they are a very small minority. Also 80% rule would only need to be in effect when the station is mostly full.

Depends if you are towing something. A rule like that just won't work.