TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[strangecosmos]

Anyway, you clearly don't seem to know what you are talking about, so that's the extent I'm going to discuss this topic with you.

Lol. Why can’t you cite any evidence to support your position? How come when I present hard data that supports my case you resort to insults?

 

[winfield100]

Apropos of nothing whatsoever, I take this moment to thank the hardworking coders who created the 'Ignore' button. Thank you.

1) positive = a lot fewer messages to wade through
2) negative = more non-sequitor messages responding to ghosts that make no sense

 

[Artful Dodger]

They changed it after that. My 2018 spec sheet says “Free unlimited supercharging will only apply to the original vehicle owner and only for the duration of original vehicle ownership.”

Yup, they change it more often than a nun changes underwear. Maybe one of the members here who owns a MP3 bought before Aug 31st can tell us the details of the their supercharging package.

Cheers!

 

[Fact Checking]

Spiegel needs to go back and check his analogy again. Tesla is so similar to an iPhone thay you are just lying to your investors calling it anything else.

Yeah, agreed, and note another, hidden layer: shorts like Spiegel have admitted to creating and spreading lies about Tesla to harm the company, reduce demand and hurt investors.

Shorts are also hurting from the Apple and Amazon comparisons: it is a simple yet powerful analogy that explains Tesla to many newcomers.

So I believe Spiegel is shamelessly lying here, he doesn't for a minute believe in the BlackBerry analogy, he is simply trying to blunt the impact of the powerful Tesla = Apple meme, which is powerful because it is true.

 

[M3Rider]

1. That’s not worth $5K. I opted for my Performance without PUP but I feel bad for anyone who paid. That sucks.

Not worth $5k? Quick math about the value of free SupperCharger here in Germany.

That's not the reason. If you have ability to charge at home, then you are unlikely to use a supercharger unless it's within like 2 miles.
It's just an inconvenience having to go somewhere to charge. Normally, you come home, insert the charging connector into the port and you're done. Then the value of superchargers is limited to maybe 1 road trip per year for an average person.

Not changing the fact the if you've put checkmark into the $5k checkbox b/c you thought it was worth that price to you, then why do you now have the right to demand it back? What if EAP becomes free and FSD is $5k? Do I get to ask my money back for EAP?

 

[kbM3]

And: "Will require tapping indicator to confirm at first. When safety looks good after 10M miles of driving or so, there will be an option to turn off confirm."

I think waiting for 10M miles is good news.

Not if it’s 10M miles per car.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yup, they change it more often than a nun changes underwear. Maybe one of the members here who owns a MP3 bought before Aug 31st can tell us the details of the their supercharging package.

Cheers!

The last cars with transferable unlimited supercharging were ordered January 15th, 2017, and delivered up to a few months after that. It was originally December 31st, 2016, but it was extended 15 days. No Model 3 has it.

I ordered without unlimited supercharging, April 2017, but I was fortunate to get it retroactively. It doesn't follow the car, though.

 

[AWDtsla]

Assuming an average 4 year ownership period, 20k miles per year average, 20% supercharging and 300 Wh/mile, that's 4800 kWh. An average of say 20 cents/kWh would bring it til $960. Average.

LOL. Cheap MOFO's will charge 100% of the time at superchargers because it's free. I see it happen. Including demand charges and capital costs, because more stalls have to be built to accommodate you, I'm seeing figures that easily exceed $5000 in 4 years.

 

[shrspeedblade]

As as customer and as a stockholder I wish Tesla wouldn't abruptly change prices on the premium models, but instead offer a $1-2k discount to the people who have waited close to three years for a Model 3 SR.

Probably a number of those people are stretching to the $35k price point, and if loyalty begets loyalty than three years of patience should be rewarded! It could easily be subsidized by all the people who can and are paying for a P3D or a 3AWDLR w/ EAP. Limit it to reservation holders before 7/1/18.

If I were a sales VP I'd be fuming that PR opportunities like this are being squandered, and instead profits were being handed back and anger generated from top end buyers who need or want neither.

 

[Yggdrasill]

LOL. Cheap MOFO's will charge 100% of the time at superchargers because it's free. I see it happen. Including demand charges and capital costs, because more stalls have to be built to accommodate you, I'm seeing figures that easily exceed $5000 in 4 years.

Some will use the superchargers more than others. I know some people with unlimited supercharging who never use it, like maybe once per year. The average is what matters to Tesla.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

JFYI you are commenting in an investor forum of a company whose stock already went through a sustained short squeeze just five years ago, when the price went from $20-ish levels to just shy of $200. (After a surprise earnings report.)

With 27% of the float still shorted a short squeeze over the next couple of months is a very real possibility, as more and more tiers of investor demand gets unlocked in the near future, as the following financial events trigger:

• Q4 profits,
• paying back bonds/notes,
• Moody's upgrade,
• Addition of Tesla to the S&P 500

I'd not be surprised if short interest drops below 10% in the next couple of months, giving the share price a significant boost up.

While $3,000 is very unlikely to happen in the near future, price levels above $500 are a real possibility, because some models are suggesting $100b+ fair corporate value right now, plus the inevitable price transients.

If the idea of a short squeeze hits too close to home for you then you should complain about it elsewhere.

Lmao. It's funny how all smart people are still crazy in one way or another.

 

[AWDtsla]

Being a fan or supporter of a company doesn’t mean supporting 100% of its actions 100% of the time, or only saying 100% positive things about it 100% of the time.

I’m surprised Electrek is getting so much criticism because it’s a Tesla fan/investor site that virtually never questions or criticizes anything Tesla says or does. Electrek acts like it’s Tesla PR. And Fred has a big conflict of interest because he owns TSLA and gets referral prizes like a free 2020 Roadster. So, Electrek is now getting flak for publishing one critical thing?

CleanTechnica is like Electrek but seemingly even more extreme. It recently published an honest-to-God conspiracy theory attributing negative Tesla articles to a secret plot (based on as little evidence as any other conspiracy theory). I have really enjoyed some of CleanTechnica’s technical articles and I respected what they were doing, but for me it really jumped the shark with the conspiracy theory.

Maybe this is the corrupting influence of money... When you have a lot of money invested in a stock, and you obsessively watch the stock price day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute... You become obsessed with making money and you get angry at anyone you perceive as getting in the way of you making money.

Throw in some pseudoscience like technical trading, and that’s just more fuel for the fire.

It's because he acted like a petulant spoiled brat. Obviously Tesla could have made the change less abrupt. But he basically got Elon to quit twitter.

 

[strangecosmos]

It's because he acted like a petulant spoiled brat. Obviously Tesla could have made the change less abrupt. But he basically got Elon to quit twitter.

Not sure those two things are related. Could be, but could also just be a coincidence.

 

[ZachF]

LOL. Cheap MOFO's will charge 100% of the time at superchargers because it's free. I see it happen. Including demand charges and capital costs, because more stalls have to be built to accommodate you, I'm seeing figures that easily exceed $5000 in 4 years.

Wasn't there a guy who used his free supercharging to mine bitcoin? lol

 

[Sudre]

To make an accounting profit of 5000, ...

And when I go to purchase a used Performance 3 that should have had unlimited supercharging but no longer does because the owner canceled it I will immediately subtract $5000 off whatever price the other cars are selling for. Now you are out all the supercharging fees and the $5K you got refunded. BUT you will probably be lucky enough to not have to worry about it because most people will not even remember this in a year or three when the car gets sold.

 

[djgarrett21]

If Tesla really does leak info to it, then now might be high time to just stop doing that .. I'm sure CleanTechnica, Teslarati, InsideEv wouldn't mind filling that spot

No question in my mind Tesla leaks to them. Electrek has info from "sources" that nobody else can touch. How does a blogger from eastern Canada have so many sources to a company in the western US? Sources in finance, engineering, production, sales, management, there doesn't seem to be a department that Fred doesn't have some sort of friend in. That is, unless "sources" are really just Tesla reaching out to their favorite blogger because they know they'll get favorable coverage.

Tesla has made Electrek what it is and they have a mutually beneficial relationship.

I agree, I don't get why Tesla doesn't send more info to other bloggers but maybe they will going forward.

 

[electracity]

As as customer and as a stockholder I wish Tesla wouldn't abruptly change prices on the premium models, but instead offer a $1-2k discount to the people who have waited close to three years for a Model 3 SR.

Probably a number of those people are stretching to the $35k price point, and if loyalty begets loyalty than three years of patience should be rewarded! It could easily be subsidized by all the people who can and are paying for a P3D or a 3AWDLR w/ EAP. Limit it to reservation holders before 7/1/18.

If I were a sales VP I'd be fuming that PR opportunities like this are being squandered, and instead profits were being handed back and anger generated from top end buyers who need or want neither.

What we don't see is the impact on new orders when Tesla messes with prices and options. Since buyers aren't rational the impact is probably greater than we would expect from a gut feeling.

I assume this most recent price change is intended to maximize ASP in Q4. To push the apparently many AWD orders into P orders.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

I noticed some people using technical analysis in this thread, so I wanted to re-post something I wrote on that topic in another thread.

Academic research finds that most daily price movements are random.

Here's an academic study that compared five common technical trading strategies to random trading. It concluded:

"Our main result, which is independent of the market considered, is that standard trading strategies and their algorithms, based on the past history of the time series, although have occasionally the chance to be successful inside small temporal windows, on a large temporal scale perform on average not better than the purely random strategy, which, on the other hand, is also much less volatile."

Another study looked at 5,000 technical trading strategies and found none performed better than chance.

This is a great study that simulated a stock market where prices moved 100% randomly. Lo and behold, they found some of technical traders' favourite patterns in the random data:

"To demonstrate why traditional technical analysis falls short, we applied the standard methods to a synthetic market generated by a random walk. Although the market data is engineered to be pure noise, technical analysis "discovers" strong features such as accumulation/distribution patterns, upward and downward trends, support and resistance levels."

So, if you are using the tools of traditional technical analysis, you are probably attributing meaning to noise. These same patterns appear in completely random data.

Just because a technique appears to work once or a few times doesn’t mean it has a success rate better than chance. People could flip coins to decide whether a stock will go up and down, and many of them would have streaks of 7 or more successes in a row. That’s just statistics. Confirmation bias, the gambler's fallacy, and survivorship bias often lead people to feel confident about techniques that perform no better than chance.

Apparently, some prominent proponents of technical analysis are also advocates of astrology, and believe that astrology can be used to predict stock price movements. That's maybe a sign that technical analysis lacks scientific rigour.

You can also ask: 1) if traditional technical analysis worked, why wouldn't high-frequency trading algorithms have arbitraged all the alpha away by now? and 2) if it worked, why doesn't technical trading have a billionaire poster child, like Warren Buffett for value investing?

Also relevant:

The video is about how alpha is elusive because a) the stock market is highly unpredictable and b) even more importantly, anytime anyone finds a way to non-randomly attain alpha, people just copy them and arbitrage all the alpha away. That would of course apply to technical trading methods.

Good job. Like the mythical short squeeze, technical traders are generally poor at actually verifying that any of the techniques are more than superstition.

 

[Intl Professor]

So basically you’re saying Tesla needs to be less transparent about pricing and behave more like other OEMs. Yes, that’s what you just said. To be a big boy company they need to behave like the other OEMs and obfuscate pricing more because that’s how it’s done. Try and trick people, be sly, underhanded.

What a kick it is to read Tesla be praised for being different and then condemned for those differences. People want change except when they don’t, when it doesn’t benefit them, when it upsets their sensibilities, when they can’t profit from it in some when, when it’s too different, when someone with a bit of an audience makes a stink to rile people up.

Then when Tesla listens to the complaint and graciously offers an alternative in an attempt to appease the offended parties and be as fair as possible that’s wrong too.

I think I might have just gotten to the point where we aren’t worth the effort to save.

Except for, possibly, the last sentence, this post cries out for a wise button rating.

 

[ThereAre4Cars]

Yes. This is how they should have done it. I've tried to explain pricing stuff like this to them before (as far back as 2014) and I thought they'd got the message....

This is like the reverse situation of Netflix's qwikster.. only they are getting in trouble for lowering prices too fast.