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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Wrong! You and I might wait, but it turns out an astounding number of people want to GET IT NOWWWWWWWW. The only real benefit from the $40K "Signature" Model S reservation was getting your car earlier. People still went for it. Ditto Model X. On Model 3, many people were furious when the reservation line didn't get them their car earlier, and repeatedly said that they would have been fine with it if they'd gotten their cars in strict reservation order.
Well, for 40k, didn't you get a snazzy special shade of red? :cool: Granted for less than 40k you could get the car professionally repainted to a matched shade (or any other color you want), but it wouldn't be factory.
 
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I think the paper goes onto say there may be technical indicators that have better-than-chance predictive power, but the math is so complex I can’t understand it.
The resistance levels can work this way.

People look at these "thumb rules" and put buy & sell limits. You see people on this thread doing it, for eg. If enough people do it, it actually builds some automatic levels. Even large investment firms / wealthy investors may decide on this strategy. Buy at $x and sell at $y. That is configured in the trading software - and act as real resistance levels, esp when the volume is low. On big news, these levels get blown away because of high volumes and/or enough people move the limits.

In the last 3 months with so many, many bad news items - SP still didn't breach the $250 level, for eg.
 
I personally started to get a bad vibe about 6 months ago. I get the feeling all the media attention has gotten to his head, and it is just all about the money(clicks).

teslarati and cleantechnica are all you need. And if they miss something you'll read it here anyway ;)
At first I thought he was just adjusting to the new reality of needing click bait headlines for more clicks and thus ad revenue, as this has become an actual trend and one of the reasons so many headlines and youtube videos are so clickbait-y, even when their content isn't clickbait.

I never considered him a "professional" (compared to say, Zach at CleanTechnica) but a well intentioned, well informed novice (amateur would have been unfair) online journalist. His breaking out of his opinion at the end of the article was always a breath of fresh air in today's "news" industry. But over the last few weeks... I don't know what happened to Fred. Maybe something bad happened (I won't speculate on specifics - that would be unfair to him) in his personal life, and now he's just lashing out as a coping mechanism?
 
At first I thought he was just adjusting to the new reality of needing click bait headlines for more clicks and thus ad revenue, as this has become an actual trend and one of the reasons so many headlines and youtube videos are so clickbait-y, even when their content isn't clickbait.

I never considered him a "professional" (compared to say, Zach at CleanTechnica) but a well intentioned, well informed novice (amateur would have been unfair) online journalist. His breaking out of his opinion at the end of the article was always a breath of fresh air in today's "news" industry. But over the last few weeks... I don't know what happened to Fred. Maybe something bad happened (I won't speculate on specifics - that would be unfair to him) in his personal life, and now he's just lashing out as a coping mechanism?

Always been this way, it's just a matter of when you've noticed.

This is a "with friends like these, why have enemies?" moment.
 
Being a fan or supporter of a company doesn’t mean supporting 100% of its actions 100% of the time, or only saying 100% positive things about it 100% of the time


agreed
constructive criticism, or suggestions that may even help in the long run, should be welcomed and evaluated by all.

tesla customer communications is still, obviously, not great. queue latest misstep.

all they had to do was change the price less (@MXWing had suggestions), or, change it 5k with an explanation citing the reduction of full tax incentive and loss of supercharging as reasons, but then explain that those paying the 5k would be now getting free SC.

they didn’t explain any of it, and a twitter tirade ensued (which was unsurprising, as i explained earlier that the most of the demographic you’re getting into now won’t let a move like that slide).

but the important thing, is they made it right!

tesla is very good at trying to do the fair thing. they seem to do everything possible to be as fair as possible.
 
This is unworkable. Sometimes you really do need a 100% charge. This proposal impairs the functionality of the car.
Once the SC charge rate drops below that of the onboard charger, you're taking up space and wasting time. And you're not really supercharging either, your more like trickle charging.

Busy SC stations need a few wall chargers (like Tejon Ranch) for those 100% cases, but even then it should be 95%. 100% buys you very little and costs a lot of time vs 95% but whatevers if no one is waiting in the queue.

But when the electronic queue says that some one is waiting to supercharge, and your pulling 7 KW it's time to move the car and give up the spot. Plug into the wall charger if you must have 100%.
 
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I mean, I didn’t argue that. But even if I did, why should people get pissed? Toyota is a $200B company. That’s 4x growth, which is great. And if even if someone argues that Tesla’s valuation should be no more than GM’s or Volkswagen’s, why should people get pissed? Why would it make you angry if people disagree with your investment thesis? Shouldn’t you welcome disagreement, since it helps sharpen your thinking?

Ok, I can accept that criticism. Although I thought the thesis should be backed up by facts and first principle reasoning. I don't see how Tesla's valuation in anyway limited by that of the GM's. The traditional car makers has billions of dollars of ICE investment to write off, and they have yet to spend much on EV. VW's market cap is suppressed by their own criminal behavior. If your thesis is these guys can somehow hold on to their market share, emerging from the EV revolution unscratched, holding Tesla down to less than 10% of the market share, you need to provide some more supporting evidence, since the other side of the evidence has been presented many times here. Or you could argue there will be new comers, then why there hasn't been many credible ones after all these years?

Even when Tesla sells same number of cars as Toyota, higher profit margin means higher earning, thus higher market cap, without needing higher multiples.

And at the same time you are giving 0 potential to the energy business


The infotainment system is nice, but Apple CarPlay and Android Auto can do the trick in other cars. Tesla is competing against Apple and Google in infotainment software. In newer cars that have big juicy new touchscreens, using CarPlay is like using an iPad. It’s great. Even Fiat Chrysler’s Uconnect is pretty good. A car’s infotainment system also just matters a lot less than a phone’s OS because in a car you’re just driving and using the infotainment for a limited set of apps: maps/nav, podcasts, music, radio, heat/AC, backup camera, etc. Pretty good is good enough.

I guess that is where our biggest disagreement lies. You said Apple's competitive advantage is their app system. I don't quite agree. Android has one too. Clearly Apple is earning much much more money against android phone makers.

Apple is unique in providing a smooth and enjoyable experiment across their ecosystem, taking calls and replying message in your phone, watch or mac, unlocking your computer with your watch. unlocking your watch with your phone. The whole idea is to let technology fade to the background, that it's there when you need it, and it won't get in the way. Most importantly, you don't have to fight it. There is tremendous value in that, evidenced by the obscure amount of money they make.

Apple does that by controlling all aspect of their products. And car play is the worst part, because they have no control. They have no control how many steps it takes to start car play when you start driving. they have no control how do you exactly interact with car play via the car. It drove them mad. Apple tried to work with many car makers to make the experience smoother, and that is a very frustrating experiment for apple engineers.

In all the car industry, Tesla is the only one who is trying to do that. I think you made a mistake restricting Tesla's software advantage to only infotainment. Clearly their software controls the whole car. And they can provide far better driver experience than others, and they are already doing that. Small things like it will open your garage door automatically when you get home, it will turn itself off and lock itself up automatically when you are done, and many other. You may want to brush these off as trivial, but focusing on small annoyance is exactly how Apple improves user experience, and that is exactly how they can sell expensive phones.

Apple's making a lot of money selling user experience, Tesla is the only one in car industry that understand it. Before any other car company begin to do that, Tesla do not need to fear commoditization.
 
I agree with you. Tesla will issue $20M shares, Elon will buy these shares at market price. I think it's a symbolic gesture so that Tesla's cash position is not negatively impacted by this episode. Tesla's float will be negatively impacted by 0.04%. I think in the end, this episode will help all long term investors by a lot.

What I meant in my original post is that in addition to the $20M purchase, Elon probably will buy more shares from the open market. If I were him, I would buy a lot more shares from the open market.
Nothing will stop him from buying more in the open market. I’d buy another $20M if I were him, just to stay consistent with the $420 take private tweet and throw a wrench in the shorts he despises. Afterall, if he knows it indeed is worth $420, likely after Q4, why wouldn’t he?
 
The fact that a $20 billion CEO kowtowed to some guy on the Internet with a blog sending him tweets absolutely should be questioned at this point. Elon needs to know who he is at this point. He should have told Fred "Free Roadster" Lambert to go pound sand. Every other Tesla owner since the first original Roadster left the manufacturing facility (they didn't even have a factory then!) has had to deal with sudden price changes and if you've been around Tesla long enough it's very likely you've gotten screwed by a sudden price or feature or package change yourself. Everyone else isn't a big name with a blog though so we all just ate it because last I checked saving humanity from climate change still takes priority. Except if you're Fred Lambert apparently, we now know that in the mind of Fred Lambert, only Fred Lambert takes priority.

forget fred and electrek
that’s not why elon changed course...because of one person.

it’s about the other 1000 people complaining about it. it’s about doing the right thing by your customers, and keeping them loyal.
 
I only read Electrek these days as I read Business Insider: with an expectation of low journalistic standards and with an expectation of frequent displays of insecurity and petty grudges by Fred.

Elon is not infallible and he and the Tesla team makes mistakes, but in terms of integrity, listening to readers/customers and empathy Elon is several classes above Fred.
This!
 
Simple question: what is the PV of free unlimited lifetime supercharging? Feel free to use big round numbers. ;)

You go first, then I'll tell you my number.
Idk, I'll assume it's $5k. But that's not the point. I think the PV may be $5k, but this is a marketing issue. Should gauge human reactions; making a smoother step down in price would manage human emotion.
 
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Once the SC charge rate drops below that of the onboard charger, you're taking up space and wasting time. SC stations need a few wall chargers for those 100% cases, but even then it should be 95%. 100% buys you very little and costs a lot.

A/B stalls exist for this purpose already. The incremental cost of each stall is probably not worth the anti-Jobsianness of getting secondary chargers to shuffle to.

Also with a warm pack, I am also still getting 50kW @ 80% and 18kW @ 96%, which means kicking me out of the stall at 80% would super-suck for me, even if there was a 80A HPWC for my dual chargers.
 
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80% maybe a idea to consider on full days, but only IF the next Supercharger is 100 miles away (or closer)!

[There are regions were 80% won't be enough. Think of the old 70 or 60 kwh Model S trying to reach the next SUC on mountainous roads, covered with snow (You need heating and can't reduce the consumption, because of the outside conditions). I had this back in 2016. With only 80% my family would have stranded in a snow storm. Not funny.]
 
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forget fred and electrek
that’s not why elon changed course...because of one person.

it’s about the other 1000 people complaining about it. it’s about doing the right thing by your customers, and keeping them loyal.

Agree 100% - not sure why people are being so dense about it. Common sense that winter was coming. Both literally and figuratively.

Fred isn’t going to singlehandedly crash the [email protected] inbox, the escalation inbox and the finance team inbox.

Fred isn’t going to show up at every sales and delivery center in person and be angry at every one wearing a Tesla shirt.

Fred isn’t gonna to blow up the phones lines for the next how long with customers.

Never has the proverb “The path to hell is paved with good intentions” rang more true than now.
 
I think the paper goes onto say there may be technical indicators that have better-than-chance predictive power, but the math is so complex I can’t understand it.

Ah ok. I'll take a look for ya.

Before I do though (and don't hold your breath for my results I'm lost in the abstract), what's your current valuation model (or where is it posted) if you have one? Thanks!

edit: Why is a dude working for Microsoft publishing computational finance?
 
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Hi,

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't these new shares created separately for Elon by Tesla, rather than him buying $20M worth of TSLA on NASDAQ?

That way, the $20M goes to Tesla directly to compensate for the FCF impact of paying their $20M SEC fine. Otherwise, the money goes to the current owner of the shares.

So Monday's buy by Elon shouldn't affect the market, beyond the sentiment and goodwill PR from his act to protect the value of existing shares.

Sure, on purely technical / logical reasons, shouldn't be even a visible blip.

But we all know TSLA frequently trades on emotion to a large extent. "CEO buys $20M in shares at market prices" sends a huge signal that anyone who didn't realize he was mainly paying for Tesla's SEC fine (and even perhaps those that do) would interpret as hugely bullish, because he could clearly have excercised options instead of buying at market prices, which will cause them to wonder, what does he know that we don't? So the stock could keep surging / surge again.

That said this is TSLA which the market is (seemingly, if unaware of shenanigans) highly irrational about. So I wouldn't be surprised if Elon buying stock and zero other news causes it to tank to <$300, because it seems like nine times out of ten, we get good news and the market goes the other direction, and while that may have been due to short hijinx, at some point you just start to expect insanity. :rolleyes:
 
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