I mean, I didn’t argue that. But even if I did, why should people get pissed? Toyota is a $200B company. That’s 4x growth, which is great. And if even if someone argues that Tesla’s valuation should be no more than GM’s or Volkswagen’s, why should people get pissed? Why would it make you angry if people disagree with your investment thesis? Shouldn’t you welcome disagreement, since it helps sharpen your thinking?
Ok, I can accept that criticism. Although I thought the thesis should be backed up by facts and first principle reasoning. I don't see how Tesla's valuation in anyway limited by that of the GM's. The traditional car makers has billions of dollars of ICE investment to write off, and they have yet to spend much on EV. VW's market cap is suppressed by their own criminal behavior. If your thesis is these guys can somehow hold on to their market share, emerging from the EV revolution unscratched, holding Tesla down to less than 10% of the market share, you need to provide some more supporting evidence, since the other side of the evidence has been presented many times here. Or you could argue there will be new comers, then why there hasn't been many credible ones after all these years?
Even when Tesla sells same number of cars as Toyota, higher profit margin means higher earning, thus higher market cap, without needing higher multiples.
And at the same time you are giving 0 potential to the energy business
The infotainment system is nice, but Apple CarPlay and Android Auto can do the trick in other cars. Tesla is competing against Apple and Google in infotainment software. In newer cars that have big juicy new touchscreens, using CarPlay is like using an iPad. It’s great. Even Fiat Chrysler’s Uconnect is pretty good. A car’s infotainment system also just matters a lot less than a phone’s OS because in a car you’re just driving and using the infotainment for a limited set of apps: maps/nav, podcasts, music, radio, heat/AC, backup camera, etc. Pretty good is good enough.
I guess that is where our biggest disagreement lies. You said Apple's competitive advantage is their app system. I don't quite agree. Android has one too. Clearly Apple is earning much much more money against android phone makers.
Apple is unique in providing a smooth and enjoyable experiment across their ecosystem, taking calls and replying message in your phone, watch or mac, unlocking your computer with your watch. unlocking your watch with your phone. The whole idea is to let technology fade to the background, that it's there when you need it, and it won't get in the way. Most importantly, you don't have to fight it. There is tremendous value in that, evidenced by the obscure amount of money they make.
Apple does that by controlling all aspect of their products. And car play is the worst part, because they have no control. They have no control how many steps it takes to start car play when you start driving. they have no control how do you exactly interact with car play via the car. It drove them mad. Apple tried to work with many car makers to make the experience smoother, and that is a very frustrating experiment for apple engineers.
In all the car industry, Tesla is the only one who is trying to do that. I think you made a mistake restricting Tesla's software advantage to only infotainment. Clearly their software controls the whole car. And they can provide far better driver experience than others, and they are already doing that. Small things like it will open your garage door automatically when you get home, it will turn itself off and lock itself up automatically when you are done, and many other. You may want to brush these off as trivial, but focusing on small annoyance is exactly how Apple improves user experience, and that is exactly how they can sell expensive phones.
Apple's making a lot of money selling user experience, Tesla is the only one in car industry that understand it. Before any other car company begin to do that, Tesla do not need to fear commoditization.