TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

But the S is a heavier car. I've been driving a LEAF since 2011 and I was averaging 4.2 miles/kWh by driving 60 mph and hypermiling. I'm averaging 4.5 in my Model 3 RWD driving faster albeit still practicing hypermiling techniques (old habits die hard)

The Nissan Leaf is definitely not an efficient BEV. But that's OK since Nissan's just trying to make it cheap.

Tesla has placed emphasis on efficiency because it's trying to build long-distance BEVs and greater efficiency helps with that.

 

[mikevbf]

Tesla's main problem, going forward, is to not grow too fast.

Elon in the conference call talked about reversing working capital requirements "to the point where the faster we grow, the more capital we have." Does this make sense to you Fact Checking or seem like an oversimplification?

"Now, our product inventory management also there's a lot of room for improvement there. We think we can probably cut that down to a few $100 million or so, Deepak, something like that, maybe $200 million or $300 million of COGS at the factory. So effectively, what we're going to go is reverse the working capital requirement for the company quite dramatically, so to a point where the faster we grow the more capital we have. This is incredibly important for capital efficiency of the company. It's night and day."

 

[defc0n]

B


My guess is that he has over $50 million in ZEV credits that can put this thing to rest without impacting Q 4 profitability. But can someone much smarter than me chime in?

$50mil zev credits could likely be better spent some other way.

 

[bdy0627]

B


My guess is that he has over $50 million in ZEV credits that can put this thing to rest without impacting Q 4 profitability. But can someone much smarter than me chime in?

I don't actually think this is that big of a financial deal, just a small headache. I personally don't like decisions like this taking place on twitter with Elon. Tesla is getting too big for that. Certainly, he can tweet interesting stuff all he wants, but let significant company decisions like this take place at Tesla not on twitter.

 

[Tslynk67]

Many Appartments in Europe don’t allow you to charge at home. That’s not surprising is it?

Nope, but if you own the place and have your own parking spot then certainly worth the expense to get a socket installed running from your meter.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Well, In my Situationen I am about to purchase a Tesla with or without free spercharging.

So in Order to answer the question raised if it’s worth it for me and conning from a gas car It’s a comparison of before and after in my situation not the one of Fred or anybody else.

You may talk here about a very different Szenario of yourself or someone else that I did not try even to answer.In fact I do not have the data to do that.

No offence but you relate my answer to a question that does not apply in my example.

But still thanks for you reply as it makes obvious where the confusion is coming from.

Alex

What bothers me about the analysis of free supercharging versus charging at home is that there is no consideration of
1. Time value of sitting at supercharger versus being home enjoying coffee or sex with wife/girl friend
2. Degradation of battery from more frequent supercharging

 

[Reciprocity]

Given that Elon's refund tweet will likely mean Tesla losing about $50M+, and therefore seems to be significant company related information, shouldn't he have screened that through Tesla first? It seems like it was a pretty impulsive decision and tweet by Elon. I thought his settlement with the SEC involved avoiding such impulsive tweets. I highly doubt there would be any action taken by the SEC on it, but it's an indication that Elon is pretty much going to continue to decide and tweet what he wants to regarding Tesla. Makes me wonder if he may seriously cross the line on the settlement at some point.

Elon is the CEO of the company, be can make those decisions if he chooses. You may not like it, but you also have no idea if it was or was not impulsive. They probably met to discuss pricing, and someone probably playing devil's advocate brought up the fact that some may not like it. So Elon may have said, ok if people complain, it's the right thing to refund.

The point is that no one knows and Elon is the boss. Good and bad, I'll cope with this kind of impulsive action. Just no more pedo tweets, sec fights, or fights with shorts and no more funding secured. Just focus on the products and the mission. There is so much good to talk about, there is no reason to get into the gutter with the slime.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Say mythology again. SAY MYTHOLOGY again! And I dare you, I double dare you mo...

Oh. Never mind. Wagering ...thaaaaat’s a ban.

 

[bdy0627]

Elon is the CEO of the company, be can make those decisions if he chooses. You may not like it, but you also have no idea if it was or was not impulsive. They probably met to discuss pricing, and someone probably playing devil's advocate brought up the fact that some may not like it. So Elon may have said, ok if people complain, it's the right thing to refund.

The point is that no one knows and Elon is the boss. Good and bad, I'll cope with this kind of impulsive action. Just no more pedo tweets, sec fights, or fights with shorts and no more funding secured. Just focus on the products and the mission. There is so much good to talk about, there is no reason to get into the gutter with the slime.

I would much rather see Elon mention that Tesla is considering some approaches for recent P3D buyers due to the sudden price drop. Something that suggests more thought/planning/consideration by Tesla on the issue than simply Elon getting so many tweets that he spontaneously decides Tesla will provide refunds. Maybe that's not how it actually went down, but that's how it appears.

 

[MXWing]

What bothers me about the analysis of free supercharging versus charging at home is that there is no consideration of
1. Time value of sitting at supercharger versus being home enjoying coffee or sex with wife/girl friend
2. Degradation of battery from more frequent supercharging

I’m not top 1% intelligence or anything but here’s my subpar analysis if you are interested in 5000 vs FUSC.

Factoring in
1.) Economic profit (value - opp cost of time x money)
2.) Extra transit miles for wear and tear + depreciation
3.) unforeseen wait times + maintenance
4.) potential of getting murdered
What happens when there aren’t enough superchargers : teslamotors
5.) increasing competition for chargers with fixed charging stations..

You gotta be out of your mind to forgo 5000 over FUSC.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Elon in the conference call talked about reversing working capital requirements "to the point where the faster we grow, the more capital we have." Does this make sense to you Fact Checking or seem like an oversimplification?

"Now, our product inventory management also there's a lot of room for improvement there. We think we can probably cut that down to a few $100 million or so, Deepak, something like that, maybe $200 million or $300 million of COGS at the factory. So effectively, what we're going to go is reverse the working capital requirement for the company quite dramatically, so to a point where the faster we grow the more capital we have. This is incredibly important for capital efficiency of the company. It's night and day."

It's hyperbolic, but it does make sense internally.

In that call Elon Musk said that Tesla has 60 day terms with suppliers. In a just-in-time system, with Tesla production having committed customers, Tesla would have delivered the car by the time they have to pay the supplier.

The hyperbole, is that growth requires investment and some of that has long lead time.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Fred just cost Tesla four times what the SEC settlement did.**

Karen, I really like your posts, but come on. Musk is an adult. If anybody cost Tesla anything, it was Musk. Or maybe, Musk decided this was money that Tesla wasn't entitled to in the first place, so this isn't costing Tesla anything, rather, it just makes some owners whole. I don't have a dog in this particular race, but either way, it was Musk's decision. Fred didn't cause Tesla to lose anything.

This reminds me of the cries on the forum about Joe Rogan "making" Musk to take a puff from a blunt. Rogan simply offered it; Musk can and does make his own decisions.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

With respect to conspiracy theories, please be aware of an entity “Fueling U.S. Forward,” the group is a front, operated by trusted Koch operatives Charles Drevna and James Mahoney, and funded by Koch Industries money.

This. This, tripled and to the FUDth power.

That the program practically abbreviates to Operation FUD is deliciously unsavory. (Yes that’s a moron of the oxy variety)

Aaaand it’s just the one we KNOW about by name and sponsorship.

 

[mongo]

Once upon a time it did. It was, in many ways, worse. There is value in seeing the correction to misinformation, even if you didn't see the misinformation.

You can edit the QUOTE tag and delete the member number part. Then the quoted text shows up to all.

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Taycant

LOL!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

$50mil zev credits could likely be better spent some other way.

Well duh but he already promised the refunds so he's kind of on the hook now. This is why the SEC should be required to monitor and approve all his tweets before they are released tbh.

 

[Cattledog]

What bothers me about the analysis of free supercharging versus charging at home is that there is no consideration of
1. Time value of sitting at supercharger versus being home enjoying coffee or sex with wife/girl friend
2. Degradation of battery from more frequent supercharging

Hmmmmm...might be some degradation to #1 also and I don't think it would be the coffee maker...

 

[EVNow]

Karen, I really like your posts, but come on. Musk is an adult. If anybody cost Tesla anything, it was Musk. Or maybe, Musk decided this was money that Tesla wasn't entitled to in the first place

What seems to have convinced Musk was the reply that free supercharging was not worth $5k.

Here is my guess. When the idea was pitched to EM, the analysts must have told him it's a wash for customers because of free supercharging. For Tesla it makes manufacturing more streamlined because of fewer varients.

But, that, was clearly not customer reaction. So Tesla had to change.

BTW, when calculating the impact, it's not full $5k. They no longer need to keep a portion of 5k in reserve for future supercharger expenses. So, depending on how much they reserve, the impact to profits will be lesser.

 

[sundaymorning]

2020 will be year of the semi:

Tesla eyes 2020 delivery for semi as Daimler and Volvo models also ready debut

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Given that Elon's refund tweet will likely mean Tesla losing about $50M+, and therefore seems to be significant company related information, shouldn't he have screened that through Tesla first? It seems like it was a pretty impulsive decision and tweet by Elon. I thought his settlement with the SEC involved avoiding such impulsive tweets. I highly doubt there would be any action taken by the SEC on it, but it's an indication that Elon is pretty much going to continue to decide and tweet what he wants to regarding Tesla. Makes me wonder if he may seriously cross the line on the settlement at some point.

Can we please stop the hyperbole. It’s not $50 mln, it’s probably not even $5 mln. A loss of $50 mln would imply 10,000 refunds. Tesla didn’t even sell that many P3D, let alone P3D+. And not all of those will know about the offer. And not all of those that do will want to give up free supercharging.